September, 2011

Frosty Mornings?

September 30th, 2011 at 4:34 pm by under Weather

Yes it could get chilly enough for some frost the next couple of mornings.  Temperatures will be low enough, but there are a few other factors that make one night a better bet.  Friday and Saturday night temperatures look to fall into the mid 30′s by morning.  Here’s a look at those temps.

Futurecast Temps - Friday Night Lows

Here are the expected temps for Friday night into Saturday morning.  Temperatures look to fall to 36, however there are a couple of factors working against frost development.  First, there will still be quiet a bit of cloud cover, especially early in to overnight.  Also, winds will still be rather gusty.  This will help keep things moving and inhibit frost.

Now here is a look at temps Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Futurecast Temps - Saturday Night Lows

Looks almost the same.  The difference is the weather conditions.  Skies will be clear and winds will be calm.  This means less movement right at the ground.  Low lying places and open areas will be most susceptible to frost formation.

Cold start to weekend

September 30th, 2011 at 11:53 am by under Weather

It is certainly a late fall forecast as temperatures are not budging out of the lower 50s today. Late last night and early this morning we saw a cold front bring much cooler air to our area. These winds of change can be noted by looking at the first graphic which details a strong northwest flow with gusty winds through this afternoon. Low pressure which has been sitting in our area for the last few days and caused many areas to experience over 3 inches of rainfall will finally move out. This should resolve the unusually low pressure which you have been seeing in your home barometer if you have one, or watching us on TV talking about it.

Higher pressure though will mean much colder air with highs not getting out of the lower 50s tomorrow afternoon. Overnight Saturday and by Sunday morning we will see a considerable frost with lows in the lower to middle 30s. Temperatures will begin to moderate by the end of the day Sunday.

By next week we will experience Indiana summer like conditions with highs possibly pushing toward the 80 degree mark.

Typical fall weather, all in one day!

September 29th, 2011 at 4:44 pm by under Weather

The rain is here now, and the rest will be moving in overnight tonight.  After this rain systems starts to move out, gusty winds will settle into the area.  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.  Here is a look at the estimated winds from our very own Futurecast Model.

Futurecast Winds - 8 AM Fri.

Futurecast Winds - 12 PM Fri.

Futurecast Winds - 8 PM Fri.

Futurecast Winds - 5 AM Sat.

As you can see, winds stay rather gusty through the day Friday and finally start to slowly calm through Saturday.  These gusty northwest winds will bring in some very cold air from up north.  Here’s a look at HIGH temperatures for Friday.

Futurecast Temps - Highs Friday

Yes, these are high temperatures for Friday afternoon.  by Saturday morning, lows could get cold enough to see some a bit of frost!

Futurecast Temps - Lows Friday Night

Another weather system set to arrive

September 28th, 2011 at 7:22 pm by under Weather

We have one rain-making weather system moving out with another moving in by Thursday late afternoon/evening.

Today’s scattered rain and storms will diminish tonight.  While we still carry the scattered rain/storm chance during the day tomorrow, the best chance won’t arrive till late afternoon/evening when the next system moves through.

After lows around 50° tonight, we’ll have a nice, although brief, warm up on Thursday with highs around 70°.  Chilly air will flow in behind tomorrow’s arriving system and that will mean high temperatures on Friday only in the 50s…and it will be windy, too!

Stubborn storm system sends in more rain

September 27th, 2011 at 10:15 pm by under Weather

Guess what?  Wednesday’s forecast features more of the same…cloudy, cool and wet conditions.

The same storm system we’ve been dealing with for the past handful of days continues to be slow to leave.  So, get ready for periods of rain (and maybe a few storms) during the day on Wednesday.

By Thursday morning, there may be only a few showers left from this current system.  But, another system moves in Thursday night, bringing the chance for some additional rain.  The bigger story, though, will be the colder air that comes in behind this next system.  Friday and Saturday will end up being our chilliest days over the next week.  View the latest forecast here.

Very active pattern

September 27th, 2011 at 7:52 am by under Weather

Lots to talk about today as low pressure continues to be ‘cut off’ from the main flow of the jet stream. What does that mean for us? Well, it means very little movement from our current pattern since there are no steering wind to move this system out of the area. So look for more clouds and showers through Thursday.

What needs to happen to end this pattern is another weather system which is moving along the jet stream winds to push it out of the way. The good news that system is coming Thursday night, the bad news is that this system will bring much cooler air into the picture by Friday.

Take a look at the first two maps from left to right. All you need to concentrate on is the light and dark blue colors on the map. These contours show temperatures slightly above the surface that are -2 to -4 Celsius.  This translates into very cold air for both Friday and Saturday. I would not even rule out some flurries.

The next map shows the rapid warm up which will take place early next week.

Some more rain ahead

September 26th, 2011 at 9:49 pm by under Weather

There’s more rain to come from the same weather system that kept things wet over the weekend.

The rain rolls in late tonight and will continue on-and-off during the day Tuesday.  A few thunderstorms are possible.  Scattered rain showers will be around on Wednesday, too, and a few raindrops may still linger on Thursday.

Closed low and cool down in forecast

September 26th, 2011 at 7:54 am by under Weather

Two significant things to talk about in the upcoming week. One is this low that is cut off from the jet stream. It continues to spin in the atmosphere doing a couple of things. One it is causing a spinning motion in a counter clockwise fashion creating clouds and also setting up a prime atmosphere for rain and storms to develop. This pattern will not change much over the next several days as this low has nothing to move it along. The term ‘cut off’ means its cut off from the flow of the jet stream.

The second map is what we are looking at toward the end of the week. Lee Ann eluded to it in her previous post. The model mainly used by most American forecasters, including the National Weather Service is not carrying this cool down yet, but one thing I have learned in my 25 years of experience is that the European model does carry the cold air much better than the American models.

We’ll see if this modifies at all in the future but I will tell you that now the European has carried this cool down for the last three model runs so it is hardly an anomaly.

Heavy rain and a big cool down

September 25th, 2011 at 5:45 pm by under Weather

It’s still looking like we will see heavy rain tonight.  Here is what Futurecast is plotting for rain totals from Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

Futurecast Rain - Sun & Mon Total

This is all coming from the heavy rain band that will move through slowly overnight tonight.  Add this to all the rain we have already seen, and we might have some isolated flooding issues.

The other big thing we are watching is a big cool down toward the end of the week.

Forecasting Model - Friday 8 PM

I’ve zoomed in on this image.  The thing you need to look at here are the colors.  The blue and “cool” colors represent cooler air and the red and “warm” colors represent warm air.  Take a look at all the blue moving into our area Friday.  This could mean a huge cool down.  I have already dropped out high Friday to 60, but if this holds true we may need to drop it even further.  Something we will be watching in the models the next few days for sure!!!

Heavy Rain Update

September 25th, 2011 at 10:57 am by under Weather

Updating Lee Ann’s post from yesterday…here’s our Sunday morning model run of predicted rainfall for the rain we pick up today through 1 PM Monday.  While some showers may still be around past that point in the day tomorrow, the heaviest rain will occur tonight, continuing through the morning.

Fuuturecast Rain Forecast Sun-Mon 1PM

Widespread totals will be between 1 and 3 inches of new rain.  While the corridor of the highest forecast rain accumulations lies to the east of I-69 now, it still may fluctuate eastward or westward somewhat as this system continues to develop.

As you can imagine, as a result of these high rainfall totals, some flooding will be possible.