How about that heavy snow Tuesday night?  The National Weather Service office has a great summary of the 29 November Heavy Snow Event.  Fort Wayne had an official 4.4″ of snow at the Airport, but there were lower values measured on the East Side of Allen County.

With the melting of the recent heavy snow, look for areas of fog into Thursday morning.  With temperatures below freezing, also look for light icing on the bridges from the fog.   This is also known as black ice.

Look for lows in the lower 20s for Thursday morning and highs only in the upper 30s for Thursday.  Friday will be slightly warmer with a high near 40°.

We are dry for the rest of the week, but look for rain on Sunday, then snow showers for Monday and Tuesday.

As we look at some healthy snowfall totals keep in mind that we are also looking at near record rainfall totals as well. Many areas reporting well over 2″ of rain before the storm hit. So without the rain it could have been a whole lot worse for us. The heaviest hit area seems to be west of Fort Wayne where places like Peru received about 10 inches of snowfall. North Webster had about 8 inches of snowfall.

The good news is that things will be fairly quiet for the next couple of days, giving us a chance to dig out of this mess. But, with the snow pack we have on the ground look out for some bitter cold night time temperatures which could be as cold as the teens early Thursday morning.

The next weather system to bring precipitation should arrive on Sunday with a rain/snow mix possible before falling temperatures and all snow. We will likely also experience the coldest day time temperatures of the season by the middle of next week.

Here is the updated snow forecast map.  Fort Wayne will see around 2-4″ of snow with higher amounts over 4″ in far Western Allen County.  The area highlighted in pink may see over 6″ of snow.

Even though the snow has come down in intensity in Fort Wayne, look for more snow showers later this evening.  The snow moves out by 6AM Wednesday and in it’s wake, very cold conditions.

Highs on Wednesday are only in the upper 30s and then near 40° for Thursday.

When it comes to our average 1st 1″ snowfall for Fort Wayne, we are a few weeks behind schedule.  Our average first 1″ snow is on the 18th of November and it looks like Mother Nature is making up for the late snow.

If you haven’t already looked out your window, our 1st Winter Blast is here, at it looks like a dozy!

Look for heavy wet snow this late afternoon and tonight.  Again, because the ground is still fairly warm and the air temperature is hovering near freezing, the snow forecast is going to be very challenging.   A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for most NE Indiana and parts of NW Ohio.  The counties highlighted in Pink on the weather map are under the Winter Storm Warning.  When it comes to this dynamic round of snow, here are our thoughts:

• Fort Wayne will see 2-4″ of accumulating snow.
• Western Allen County line will see about 5″ of snow.
• Snowfall Amounts are higher from a line from Angola to Warsaw, with 4-6″ of snow.
• It is possible we could see an isolated area picking up more than 6″ of snow.

Here are the significant weather impacts you should be thinking about as you are out and about in this Winter Blast:

• Heavy Wet Snow may cause some power outages
• Look for Slick Roads

Again, please be very weather aware and careful this evening.  I can not stress that enough.

After the snow ends by 7AM Wednesday, look for cold conditions for the next 7 to 10 days with another round of a light winter mix on Sunday.

This situation is changing and fluid this afternoon and tonight. But a couple of items I want to point out.

1. These kind of systems (moving in from the south) are very dangerous for our area and if this were the middle of winter with freezing temperatures we could be looking at much higher snowfall totals.

2. This is all about timing. When does the rain change to snow will determine how much snowfall we receive.

The heaviest snowfall will be north because temperatures will change earlier and so anywhere from 4 to 6 inches north of a Fort Wayne to Auburn line.  South of that line we will see anywhere from 2 to 4 inches.

This forecast may change because of the track of this low but lets explore the current situation.  As the low tracks toward Cincinnati we will see rain change to snow. We still look for an influx of deep moisture through the area and this may cause periods of heavy snowfall through the evening and especially the overnight hours as this storm travels east the snow will diminish before dawn on Wednesday.

Snow Forecast For Tuesday Night

Folks, be ready for quickly changing conditions early Tuesday evening as rain changes over to snow.  I won’t lie, this is a very challenging forecast and a few degrees can make our break the snow forecast.

Here is our updated snow forecast that aired on Nightcast Monday Night.

Look for 1-2″ for Fort Wayne with 2-4″ possible from Angola to Warsaw.

When it comes to dodging our first measurable snow for Fort Wayne, it looks like our weather luck has run out.  On top of measurable snow in the forecast for Tuesday Night, we have a dose of heavy rain on the way first.

Look for several rounds of moderate rain from Monday night into Tuesday night.  When you add it all up, look about 2″ of rain with some areas picking up 3″ of rain.

Don’t expect a huge swing in the temperatures in the next 24 hours, the will hold steady in the lower 40s until Tuesday night.

Then, the cold air moves in Tuesday night and the rain will change over to snow.  The snow will move out by early Wednesday morning, but the snowfall rates will be high for Tuesday night.

So, how much snow you ask?  Look for 1″ of snow in Fort Wayne, but 2-3″ of snow is expected from Steuben County to Kosciusko County.  Honestly, this forecast has a huge “bust” potential and is a very challenging forecast.  There are so many variables to consider from how much snow will melt on our relatively warm soil to how fast the snow will change over.   I suggest everyone be weather aware Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for slick road ways and quickly changing weather conditions.

It is going to be a very interesting week ahead as we will first experience cold temperatures. Highs will fall into the 30s and lower 40s after today. Rain will begin again late Monday afternoon and we could see heavy rainfall through the overnight night hours with up to an inch of rain possible. The three day rainfall total could be very heavy, especially to the west as we could see rainfall up to 3″ according to Futurecast.

We are also looking for the possibility of some light snowfall possible through Wednesday morning. It looks like snowfall will be an inch or less across the area through Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures remained very steady overnight last night and have been slowly falling through the day.  Here’s a look at temps so far today.

Temperatures Today

Through the morning temps were in the 50′s, now we have been stuck in the 40′s.  Temps will continue to fall to 34 overnight tonight.

More cold air looks to move in with round 2 of the rain Tuesday night.  Enough cold air could be moving in to bring us some snow.  We have already seen our first flakes of the season, but this could be our first accumulating snowfall.  The average first date for our first accumulation of more than a trace is November 14th and our average first 1″ snow is December 2nd.   We’ll have to wait to see exactly how much snow piles up, but we could be in for our first accumulation.

Here is a look at what one model is predicting.

Estimated Snow Tuesday Night

Snowfall Scale

This model is predicting that we could see almost 3″ of snow!  Will all of the rain Tuesday though, I would say we will only see around 1″ once it’s all done.  Temps will climb back above freezing Wednesday so it won’t stick for very long.

A storm system that is slowly moving through the region will bring us plenty of rain from now through Tuesday.  By the time we get to Tuesday night, the rain may change to snow with some snow showers and rain showers potentially lingering on Wednesday.

If you’re eagerly awaiting (or dreading) our first accumulating snowfall, the Tuesday night/Wednesday time period is where you’ll want to keep your eyes on.

Yesterday, when I looked at the forecast models, the potential for some snow showers was there and I included it in the forecast but, the amount of snow didn’t seem like it would make much of an impact on our area.

Looking at the models now 24 hours later, the chance for some accumulating snow has increased.  It’s still a little too early to pinpoint total amounts.  We’ll need to see if the current model trends hold over the next few model runs.  Figuring out precipitation type with a system like this one is a complex task.  Rain or snow (or a mix of the two) will be determined by just how exactly the temperatures in the atmosphere play out on Tuesday night/Wednesday and how  much moisture from this current weather system is still around at that time.  So, stay tuned here to wane.com and NewsChannel 15 for the latest.

Note:  In the rainfall accumulation graphics above this post, the total amounts are cumulative.  So, Tuesday’s rain totals include all rain from today, tomorrow and Tuesday (through 8 PM).