Can you say: “Dry Slot?”

May 31st, 2012 at 10:44 pm by under Weather

Folks, I have been doing this for years and even though I love my job, it can be very stressful, especially when you forecast soaking rain and it does not materialize.

So, what happened?  I have two words for you: “Dry Slot.”  So what is the dry slot?  Here is the official definition:

  • A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

But, it is basically a pocket of dry air that mixes into the area and suppresses rain.  This pocket of air, that I under forecasted, is the reason we did not see more significant rain amounts.

The first image above is our radar rain estimates by 11PM Thursday.  Notice that the heaviest rain (highlighted in blue) fell to our west.

The second image above is my total rain forecast including what we already picked up.  So, look for only .25″ for Fort Wayne, lower amounts to the east and higher amounts to the northwest.

This is bad news as I feel this is not enough to suppress the Moderate Drought that is setting up over parts of Whitely, Kosciusko and Wabash counties.  (Current drought is the last image posted above.)

The outlook for the first two weeks of June is not looking good:  Look for more dry weather to continue.

One Response to “Can you say: “Dry Slot?””

  1. Barbara Smith says:

    Jonathon Condor, you are by far the BEST forecaster Fort Wayne has ever had in the eleven years I have been in the Fort. As a confirmed weather watcher, fanatic actually (likely a hangover of being a Canadian), I am continually impressed with your expertise, professionalism and accuracy in delivering the FW weather. We are so very fortunate, and I dread the day I hear you are leaving for some bigger or more exciting market.
    Thank you for not sucumbing to the usual things I have heard to explain why weather is so weird here – “the confluence of three rivers” or “the bowl effect of our morains”, you use KNOWELDGE and EXPERIENCE to explain what is going on. You and Greg Forbes (on TWC) are my weather idols.. However it is a little frustrating to watch fronts march across several states only to dissipate 15 miles away from us…
    Alas, I am as disappointed as you are that you won’t have much to say in the coming weeks – the farmers and gardeners are all a little anxious. Lament for my garden, might cut things back just to ensure root growth to tide through a drought and increase the odds of surviving a winter.
    As a weather fanatic, this type of weather is always cause for concern, a mild winter, an extremly warm spring, no rain – usually followed by some brutal or extreme reminder of mother nature’s power, why we love weather!! Keep forecasting! And re the dry slot – lets start a rumor that we have a hole in the ozone right above the fort, alot of folks around these parts love this kind of thinking. Cheers