Can you say: “Dry Slot?”May 31st, 2012 at 10:44 pm by Jonathan Conder under Weather
Folks, I have been doing this for years and even though I love my job, it can be very stressful, especially when you forecast soaking rain and it does not materialize.
So, what happened? I have two words for you: “Dry Slot.” So what is the dry slot? Here is the official definition:
- A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.
But, it is basically a pocket of dry air that mixes into the area and suppresses rain. This pocket of air, that I under forecasted, is the reason we did not see more significant rain amounts.
The first image above is our radar rain estimates by 11PM Thursday. Notice that the heaviest rain (highlighted in blue) fell to our west.
The second image above is my total rain forecast including what we already picked up. So, look for only .25″ for Fort Wayne, lower amounts to the east and higher amounts to the northwest.
This is bad news as I feel this is not enough to suppress the Moderate Drought that is setting up over parts of Whitely, Kosciusko and Wabash counties. (Current drought is the last image posted above.)
The outlook for the first two weeks of June is not looking good: Look for more dry weather to continue.