Rain Will Hopefully Come Another DayJune 1st, 2012 at 11:21 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Well if you’re a regular reader of this blog you know that we thought we were going to receive much more rainfall than we saw in the last 24 hours.
I wanted to explain how we come up with a forecast and what future rainfall looks like. First off, when we study the ‘state of the atmosphere’ or weather we are looking at a global forecast. It might seem kind of strange when we only talk about a very small area on TV, and that’s where the problem comes in. Our forecast models are set up on a mathematical gridded system. This system is derived from complex formulas which are calculated on a global basis. A meteorologist who is a good student of the models will look at several of these models and come up with a forecast for a small gridded area while looking at the global model output as a whole.
So why is this important? As meteorologists we are asked to forecast for a small area even though most models are calculated for a large gridded area. The new high resolution models have help to tighten the gap of this process a bit but we are still left with holes that we fall into once in a while. Okay, so now my point. Last night we did see over an inch of rain just about 80 miles away. In fact, if you look at the first graphic which is a Doppler estimated rainfall of our area you will notice that as the rain headed east the rainfall amounts became less and less. So was the forecast for your back yard incorrect? Yes, but the moisture was out there and did fall in areas close to Fort Wayne.
Our models are not infallible and never are the humans looking at them, but hopefully you will have a little more appreciation about the science that we have to deal with on a daily basis from the weather center.
I’ve included a couple of Climate derived graphics for out rainfall outlook. The next 7 days look relatively dry with less than an inch of precipitation but the 30 day graphic is a little more positive showing almost 3 inches of rainfall possible. Remember we are going into one of our wettest months of the year coming up in July so hopefully we can gain some ground on this very dry situation.