Isaac and the weekend

August 31st, 2012 at 7:08 am by under Weather

 

Weekend Rain Forecast Still A Question Mark

We have some questions and concerns for the upcoming weekend. What will happen with the moisture from Isaac? What we have noticed is that the track for this storm has been trending farther south each model run. (About every 12 hours). While this trend is being followed by many of our models there are still some outliers. Precipitation forecasts are still very high for the next 5 days across the area. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecast still has heavy rain just south of our area. What we have noticed is that there will be a sharp cut off of moisture north of this low pressure.

In the National Hurricane Center forecast above we continue to see the ‘cone’ of probability extends to southern Michigan. The other thing I noticed today is that the tropical depression is tracking farther south. Because of the sharp cut off in moisture it seems like with this track we stay out of the heavy rainfall. There is still uncertainty with this forecast as the low could move a little farther north, but we are finally beginning¬† to¬† see what we think is a trend moving the heavier rainfall south.

A Muggy Night For Football

Today is another Ozone Action Day, with temperatures in the 90s we will also have have humidity. This muggy forecast will carry over into tonight, so those high school football games will be rather sultry with temperatures staying in the 80s. Humidity will stick around much of the weekend with periods of showers.

3 Responses to “Isaac and the weekend”

  1. Todd says:

    I have been watching the different radar maps all morning and it sure seems like Isaac is pushing hard to the north with no sign of an eastward movement. Seems like if it doesn’t head east soon, fort wayne area could get hit harder. What am I not seeing or understanding.

    1. Jonathan Conder says:

      You can’t use that logic when forecasting a system like this. You have to consider all the other variables and know what Isaac is running into.

      1. Todd says:

        I understand how my logic has little play in the outcome of this storm track. I’ve seen one weather source say its going to hit hot dry air and stay south of this area then another say high pressure in the south east is going to help push it north. Just wondering if you think the storm seems to have enough power left in it to push further north than expected?