October, 2012

Is Indiana governor’s race closer than we thought?

October 31st, 2012 at 9:30 pm by under Politics

John Gregg

Is the race for Indiana governor closer than most observers have been thinking? That’s certainly the impression Democrat John Gregg is trying to convey in the home stretch of the 2012 campaign.

Gregg’s campaign released a poll Wednesday showing Gregg within three points of the favorite, Republican Mike Pence. The poll, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association, surveyed 825 likely voters from October 24-26 and found 47 percent favored Pence while 44 percent favored Gregg (nine percent were undecided). That result puts Gregg within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.36 percent, even weighted with a 7-point edge toward Republicans.

A Pence staffer I talked to today found the results hard to swallow given that polls throughout this race have shown Pence with a clear lead, usually around double digits. State Republican Chair Eric Holcomb issued a news release this evening asking why the pollster apparently did not include Libertarian candidate Rupert Boneham in the survey.

As for Pence’s camp, its latest internal poll flies in the face of the one Gregg is touting. Pence’s pollster Kellyanne Conway surveyed 1213 likely voters from October 25-28 and found Pence with a nine-point lead, 46 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error in that poll is +/- 2.8 percent.

Pence has had a decided fundraising advantage over Gregg in this race, but Gregg has felt the whole time that if people really got to know him, he’d have a chance. Since he’s started airing his TV ads (and outside groups have also taken swipes at Pence for him in other ads), there is evidence that he’s closed the gap with Pence at least a little bit. In a year when Indiana is expected to vote overwhelmingly for the Republican candidate for president, though, Gregg has a steep challenge to overcome. We’ll find out whether the momentum he’s touting is for real Tuesday night.

 


Trick or Treat Forecast

October 31st, 2012 at 3:25 pm by under Weather

Fort Wayne Trick or Treat Forecast

If you are headed out trick or treating tonight, there is still a low chance of very light showers.  This low rain chance is still associated to the remnants of hurricane Sandy as she continues to weaken, fill in and fall apart.  Look for temperatures to range from the lower 40s to the upper 30s and look for northwest breeze at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph under a mostly cloudy sky.  Good luck, have fun and be safe!


Still talking about Sandy and the Halloween forecast

October 31st, 2012 at 7:50 am by under Weather

Photo courtesy of Snowshoe Mountain Resort at Snowshoe, West Virginia

As we talk about Sandy who would have believed in July that we would see a powerful hurricane which would turn into a massive winter storm. Dumping feet of snow across portions of West Virginia. These are some of the amazing statistics about this massive storm.

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Sandy sets a record for the lowest pressure ever recorded on the U.S. coastline

 

Sandy: Record Setting Superstorm

Thanks to WeatherNation Meteorologist Bryan Karrick for the info below:

The Great Hurricane of Sept. 1938, also known as the “Long Island Express,” had the lowest pressure of an Atlantic Basin storm north of Cape Hatteras, NC at 946 mb. Hurricane Sandy broke that record  Tuesday morning, dropping to 943 mb!

  • 33 deaths in US, more than 100 deaths total
  • Nearly 8 million without power during the height of the storm
  • NYSE closed for consecutive days for the first time since 1888
  • more than 3 feet of snow in parts of West Virginia
  • 32.5 ft wave in New York harbor which breaks previous record by more than 6 feet
  • Record high water level of 13.88 ft at Battery Park in Manhattan

    Trick or Treat Forecast

    The Ghouls and Goblins will have to dress warmly this Halloween with temperatures expected to be in the lower 40s. Most of the rain should be out of the area but we could still see some drizzle.


Peak Winds and Halloween

October 30th, 2012 at 9:36 pm by under Weather

Peak Winds Gusts on Tuesday

When it comes to the winds from Sandy, we got off easy.  The highest wind gust in our area, wasn’t even in the WANE viewing area, but in South Bend at 53 mph.  FWA saw a wind gust of 46 mph and we had no reports of any wind damage, but there was sporadic power outages across Allen County.

Now, if you were on Long Island, this is a completely different story, where they saw wind gusts ranging from 80 to 94 mph.

Speaking of Sandy, want to see an satellite animation of Sandy from start to finish?  Just click here.

We are pretty much done with the strong winds here for the next few days, but look for a northwest wind on Wednesday at 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 25 mph.

Fort Wayne Trick or Treat Forecast

If you are going out trick or treating on Wednesday, look for a cloudy sky, temperatures to start in the lower 40s and end in the upper 30s.  It will still be breezy and there is a 30% of light showers, or more like drizzle Wednesday Night.


Sandy the winter storm

October 30th, 2012 at 11:19 am by under Weather

Snowfall in Western Ohio

These are pictures of snow accumulation in the Bluffton, Ohio area which is near Lima, Ohio.

Here’s where Post Tropical Sandy is moving look out Boston

Here is the Futurecast model showing the movement of winter storm Sandy as it will head up the east coast with gusty winds up to 70 mph. This pattern will continue as a massive winter storm which will effect the entire east coast of the United States before it moves toward Ontario.

Here was what it looked like early Tuesday with snow falling across the region

Fort Wayne was just on the Rain/Snow/Sleet line. Usually you see snow very close to that line and that’s exactly what happened as we saw accumulating snow less than 60 miles east of our area.


Superstorm Sandy, Here and There

October 29th, 2012 at 9:00 pm by under Weather

Did you see our amazing sunset tonight?  The spectacular colors will all due to Sandy!  Yes, our even clouds that made for the amazing array of colors were all connected to hurricane Sandy.  Yes, that is how big Sandy is!  Even though she is over 600 miles away, her outer clouds are already over taking our area.

Speaking of pictures, don’t get duped in thinking some storm clouds were from Sandy.  Here is a link to several viral photos that aren’t from Hurricane Sandy.

Even though we will only get brushed by Sandy, right now NYC and New Jersey are getting hit very hard.  Even though Sandy was only a category 1 hurricane moments before she made landfall, she had a central pressure of a category 4 hurricane.  The biggest impact to the East Coast will be the wide swath of damaging winds and the storm surge.  The storm surge is not just waves, but it is the rise of the ocean due to the powerful push of the storm against the land.  Actually, this was the worst case scenario:  You had a large storm with a massive storm surge that funneled a wave a water into a corner, the intersection of Long Island and the New Jersey shoreline.  As this water moves inland, it floods the city from below, filling the sewers.  Again, I don’t think we can fathom the impact in NYC being land locked here in Indiana.

I have been doing my best to look at the peak wind gusts before the power started going out along the coast.  The highest wind gust I saw was on the NWS Mesonet, with a gust of 82 mph on Long Island.

So, what does all this mean for us?  Here is a simple breakdown for Tuesday:

  • Look for sustained NW winds at 20-30 mph.
  • Look for wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph.
  • I can not rule out a rogue wind gust from 50 to 55 mph somewhere in the WANE viewing area.
  • The strongest winds will be during the AM hours, but winds will still be strong in the afternoon.
  • Flurries are possible during the morning.
  • No significant snow accumulation is expected in our area.
  • Parts of central OH, East of I-75 may see a fast 2″of snow in the morning.
  • Halloween will not be nearly as windy, but you may see a few light rain showers.

The Impact Of Sandy For Our Area

October 29th, 2012 at 10:55 am by under Weather

 

Huge storm will have impacts on our area

After “Sandy” makes landfall and changes to an ‘extra tropical’ storm it will become quite the monster. Taking on very strong characteristics which are not normally seen with a land based cyclone. This storm will create a very tight pressure gradient which in turn causes intense winds of up to 5o mph across our area. This storm will also have a winter component. A shallow area of cold air will sit across NE Indiana and NW Ohio. This colder air will be a key ingredient for our area to develop some light snowfall through Tuesday morning.

One of the other problems with a system like this is that it will hold the colder pattern longer than we would normally see from a cyclone which moves along the Polar Westerlies of the jet stream. This system is actually independent of the main jet stream pattern and as I like to say about systems like this “it creates it own weather”, meaning it brings along with it a strong change in weather patterns which include gusty winds and colder air.

The winter storms impact will finally begin to subside late Wednesday and Thursday as it finally heads toward New England.

 


Philadelphia/Mount Holly NWS Plea to Public

October 28th, 2012 at 3:51 pm by under Weather

Some may hear the term “Frankenstorm” and think that Sandy is not a serious storm.  That is FAR from true.  While Sandy won’t technically be a hurricane when it hits the Northeast, it will actually be much stronger.  It will turn into what is called a Nor’easter.  This is similar to a hurricane in that it has very low central pressure and very strong winds, but it does not have the warmth associated with a hurricane and they typically produce very heavy snow.  In some aspects Sandy will be stronger than the hurricane it is now!

The hardest hit areas look to be near New Jersey and Delaware.  Here is what they are expecting.

Hardest Hit Areas

The National Weather Service in Philadelphia/ Mount Holly has a great power point presentation on what they are expecting with the storm.  The most interesting part is this page of the presentation.

Philadelphia/Mount Holly NWS Plea

This should tell you how serious the situation is along the east coast.  Here is a link to the full presentation.


Consistent Sandy keeps tracking north

October 28th, 2012 at 10:22 am by under Weather

While hurricanes commonly change paths during their life cycles, often throwing our computer models for a loop, Hurricane Sandy has proved to be rather consistent.  For the past few days, we’ve seen her forecast track stay pretty stable with the storm traveling parallel to the east coast, before taking a northwestern turn and making landfall across the Northeast.

The affects of Hurricane Sandy are being felt today across the Mid-Atlantic states and the effects on the Northeast US will really begin to ramp up for Monday and Tuesday.

As we’ve been focusing on here in the blog, like any hurricane, it’s the high winds, heavy rain and storm surge that will work together to cause problems across the Northeast, primarily flooding and power outages.

Take a look at the map I’ve shared above that puts a total precipitation “bullseye” of between 8″ and 10″ in portions of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey by the end of the week.  Being coastal states, these areas are also at risk for additional flooding from the surge of water that will be created as Hurricane Sandy arrives over land.

As of this post, hurricane alerts have been issued across the east coast and wind alerts have been issued for areas as far west as central Ohio.  With so many people expected to lose power as a result of Hurricane Sandy, we may see outages in many places across the Northeast last for days after Sandy’s rain leaves later in the week.

To see a graphical view of all the up-to-date storm watches and warnings related to Hurricane Sandy, click here.

While we do expect to experience increased winds across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio through midweek (peak gusts on Tuesday may exceed 40 mph) and periods of rain from Tuesday-Thursday, the overall impacts here will pale in comparison to what will be experienced throughout the Northeast.


Continuing to track Hurricane Sandy

October 27th, 2012 at 11:19 pm by under Weather

The forecasted storm path for Sandy has not changed much.  It still looks as though Sandy will remain a Category 1 Hurricane as it moves up the east coast, then turn and hit near New York.

Hurricane Sandy Forecast Track – Next 3 Days

While the impacts on the east coast will be MUCH greater than what we could see here, things in Indiana could still be interesting.  One of the most noticeable things will be the winds.  Winds will begin to increase Monday and be at their strongest on Tuesday.  Sustained wind speeds look to be around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40.  Along with that we’ll see cloudy skies, scattered rain, and very cool temperatures.  Follow other blog posts HERE.  Jonathan provided several other tracking links HERE.