El Niño is No Niño

November 27th, 2012 at 4:32 pm by under Weather

Sea Surface Temperatures courtesy NASA

Even this is may not be new news to me, it may be to you: “ENSO-neutral is favored for winter 2012-13.”

That is the latest report about El Niño from the Climate Prediction center and in summary, a strong or moderate El Niño is not expected for us this winter.   So, what does that mean for the winter forecast here in Fort Wayne?  In a nutshell, confidence is running low on what kind of winter we will have.  If you believe the oak trees and the squirrels in my back yard, this is likely going to be the worst winter in a long time.  Actually, during neutral ENSO (El Niño), Fort Wayne actually has a bias for below average temperatures and slightly higher snow amounts.

That being said, the next week looks warm with some rain, but that is only one week out of the entire winter season.

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