White Christmas in Fort Wayne?

December 4th, 2012 at 9:54 pm by under Weather

My wife loves Christmas, more so than me and a lot more now that we have a son.   She loves it so much, she has a dry erase board on the door leading to the garage, counting down the days.  Today, I wasn’t sure what I was going to blog about, but my wife’s festive attitude has inspired me.

What is the chance that Fort Wayne will have a white Christmas?

Now, if you would snoop on my facebook feed, you would see a bunch of my meteorologist friends debate how much snow cover will blanket the region by Christmas.  I am not a huge fan of long range forecasting, but there are indicators in the long range ensemble forecasts, that Fort Wayne will have snow on the ground for Christmas.

What does the past tell us?   Here is a look at some stats, or averages based on the last 30 years:

  • Chance of measurable snow on Christmas day: 33%
  • Chance of 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas day: 43%

Other fun Christmas statistics include:

  • Most snow on the ground on Christmas day: 6.1″ in 1915
  • Warmest Christmas day: 64° in 1929
  • Coldest Christmas morning: -15° in 2004

So, what are your thoughts?  Will we have a White Christmas this year?  I would love to hear your prediction, so post a reply to my blog post.

8 Responses to “White Christmas in Fort Wayne?”

  1. Anna says:

    Just because I’m an optimist (and a winter weather nut) SNOW and lots of it!

  2. frosty says:

    WE WANT IT NICE AND DEEP!!!

  3. Sharon says:

    I wonder since it has been so warm, and the ground is so warm, wouldn’t it take a very long cold snap to even keep the snow on the ground?

    1. Jonathan Conder says:

      Great question! Yes, that is a huge factor, something we take into consideration when forecasting snow and yes, the ground is very warm. But, a fast and moderate snow can shock the top soil temperature. Thanks for the post! Jonathan Conder

  4. Keith says:

    If the chance for measurable snow is 33%, how can the chance for 1″ of snow be higher at 43%?

    1. Jonathan Conder says:

      This is due to the fact that snow can fall and accumulate prior to Christmas. Jonathan Conder

  5. debra says:

    Wewont see snow on christmas havent for a couple years I can remember having lots of snow christmas but now all we get is rain Id like another blizzard familys all pulled together now familys and the neighbors could care less about their neighbors.

  6. Lisa says:

    After having temps of 106 degrees this past summer, I’m ready for snow (ESPECIALLY on Christmas Day) like they have in Buffalo, NY!