Mild through weekend…sticking snow potential next week?December 5th, 2012 at 11:02 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
“Pineapple Express” continues to move east
There will only be a short respite from the strong pacific flow which has dominated our weather pattern over the last couple of weeks and which took highs into the 60′s just a couple of days ago. South winds will begin to move in with a the strong ‘zonal’ or pacific flow which will continue to bring mild or at least above normal temperatures to the area with rain and not snow through Sunday. Many times this flow which moves out of the tropical Hawaiian Islands is called the “Pineapple Express”. This time it wasn’t only responsible for warm temperatures but also record rainfall across northern California.
Changing Pattern Early Next Week
Depending on which forecast model you trust there will be much colder temperatures across the region and that seems to be a certainty. However, as usual the potential for sticking snowfall is varied depending on what forecast solution you look at.
The first component of course will be the colder air which seems to ‘buckle’ the jet stream and move it south, opening a gateway for colder air to the Rockies and Great Plains. This colder air will progress across the country through the middle of next week.
Right now the best solution for sticking snowfall would be the GFS solution which many forecasters call the “American Model’. This shows the potential for low pressure just east of our area to produce a decent or sticking snowfall through Wednesday of next week.
This is the same time period which shows all the moisture falling as rain across the Great Lakes region through Tuesday of next week.
It’s really too close to call right now as we really don’t have a consensus from the models and it is still many days out. But, we can establish looking at both solutions that there will be a big pattern change into next week.