More On Winter Storm PathDecember 18th, 2012 at 11:20 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
So we have had another day to look at the forecast model runs and there have been changes to the track. However, I still don’t believe that either model puts our area in a ‘favorable’ track for a whole lot of snow. Above you see the purple track which is taken from what we like to term the “American” or GFS model. This model has taken the the snow even farther north and really taken our area out of the equation for any significant snowfall. The other track is what many non-government forecasters like to use. The European equation/solution is much of the time more consistent and reputable with winter storms and especially with colder air. The “European” model forecast/solution has the storm going through Terre Haute and then through Fort Wayne. That would put more of the heavy snowfall west of our area.
A couple of things to note here. One thing that I noted this morning was that there still is a significant amount of moisture wrapping around the ‘left’ side of the low which may favor our area to some snowfall. The other signifcant factor may be the Lake Effect Snow machine. If the winds veer west and northwest than we would be talking about a major snowfall across the northwestern part of Indiana. If they veer more east then Chicago would see a heavy snowfall.
So with the “American” solution the heaviest snowfall would be across Iowa and especially Wisconsin. The “European” solution would put the heavy snowfall across northern Illinois. Both models leave our area out of any significant accumulating snowfall. However, with the “European” solution 1 to 3 inches of system snowfall could fall across the area. Neither of these snowfall estimates take into account the massive amount of snowfall that could fall with Lake Effect Snow which is still an uncertainty right now.