5 Day Forecast As Accurate As 3 Day Forecast 20 Years AgoJanuary 7th, 2013 at 11:02 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
There is very exciting news coming in about our forecasting tools that private sector meteorologists use everyday. Director-General Alan Thorpe of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will present new evidence about the model verification. In layman’s terms he will show how this forecast model has been drastically improved and more importantly how it correctly forecast the exact path of “Sandy” 6.5 days out. That’s 4 days before any other model even came close the the track of this storm.
This new evidence will be shared at the upcoming American Meteorological Society convention. What this model has accomplished for forecasters is that we are now able to show tracks of storms, cold air and severe weather much farther out with much more accuracy then before.
In fact, several meteorologists have compared the current model to the 3 day forecasting 20 years ago. The accuracy now of the 5 day forecast is now what the 3 day forecast was just 20 years ago.
This type of model development will continue to increase our accuracy in forecast especially dangerous storms many days out. In the long term it could save many lives and millions of dollars.