Thunderstorms In January

January 29th, 2013 at 8:56 pm by under Weather

When I think of forecasting in January for Northern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio, I think of snow, blizzards, wind chills and temperatures in the 30s.  Not temperatures near 60° with showers and thunderstorms.   If you missed out on the rumbles of thunders early Tuesday afternoon, get ready for more late Tuesday night.

Here is the break down:

  • Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • The chance of rain for Fort Wayne by 7AM Wednesday is 100%
  • The highest chance of rain comes between 3 and 7AM.
  • There is a slight risk of severe storms, mainly in the southwest corner of the WANE viewing area.
  • The main risk is winds up to 65 mph and hail up to 1″ in diameter.
  • Because of the balanced wind profile in the atmosphere, there is a low tornado risk.
  • This tornado risk is less than 2%, for brief and weak tornadoes.

Did you catch the last two bullet points there?  Yes, the winds from the surface up to the jetstream change speed and direction with height.  This is called speed and directional shear, a important ingredient for rotating updrafts.   The missing component for thunderstorm intensity in the next 24 hours is the lack of instability, or combined heat and humidity.  So, even though the chance is there, it is very low.  Needless to say, we will be tracking the storms through the overnight in the Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Center.

Besides the low storm risk, the larger impact to the area will be the 1-2″ of rain across the area which may lead to river flooding later this week.

After that, snow returns with a temperature reset for the next week.  Don;t worry though, our wacky winter returns to above average temperatures about a week into February.

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