Another Big Snow?

February 13th, 2013 at 11:52 am by under Weather

4am Tuesday February 19, 2013 GFS Surface/500 mb Thickness (WeatherUnderground)

When I woke up at 2:30 AM this morning to my normal alarm I took a gander at my IPhone only to see that someone had already ‘tweeted’ me about a weather system that is almost 7 days out! While the models this far our are in a constant state of flux I figured maybe I should give my quick thoughts on this system. First glance for me shows a system we refer to as a ‘Panhandle Hook” which identifies a system that moves through the Panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma and then hooks to the northeast, usually toward the Great Lakes region. These are the kind of systems that bring our area heavy snow.

Okay, here’s my thoughts right now on this system. I believe the current GFS run depicted here is too far south to have a huge impact on our area. while with this track we could see a few inches of snow, areas south of Indianapolis would be the biggest winners here.

Now the big disclaimer. This track can and will change over the next several days and the way the models depict it change drastically. We will also have model disagreement and differences in forecasting timing and snowfall amounts. That’s what makes meteorology so fun though, and quite honestly that’s why many out there have no idea what we do or how much data we look at to make a forecast.

So let the tweets begin and increase on this and we will certainly track progress on this weather system and what it’s effect will be on the region.

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