Winter 2012-13, out with a bang?

February 13th, 2013 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

If you are a snow lover, or rely on snow to make a living, I am sure you are pretty disappointed right now, since we have only had 16″ of snow so far this winter, less than half our average seasonal snowfall.   I won’t lie to you, I likes seasons and if it is going to be cold, why not have some snow to play in?  This is now the second winter with my Jeep Wrangler, I have yet to put it into four wheel drive.

So, is winter going to end with a bang?   I mean, if New England can pick up 30 to 40 inches of snow in 24 hours, do we still have time to see an average amount of snow this winter?    After doing this for a while, I know better to commit to a solid answer, as patterns can change very quickly.   Do you remember this early summer?   Driest in ages, then we picked up a ton of rain in July and August, ending the drought.   Maybe that is the case with this winter… we have had a ton of rain, so maybe we will see some big snow for the end of February?

Well, that’s the outlook for the end of the month.   Here is the 6-10 day precipitation outlook for the region:

6-10 Day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Here is the 10-14 precipitation outlook for the region:

7-14 Day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

So, what should you take from these maps?

  • The area highlighted in green is for a probability of above average precipitation.
  • The 6-10 day outlook has us at a 60% probability above average precipitation.
  • The 7-14 day outlook also has us at a 60% probability above average precipitation.

Even though this does not guarantee precipitation, this is a very strong bias towards being wet.

But, here is the million dollar question:  When we get our precipitation, will it come as rain or snow?   At this time, it appears our next big wave of precipitation will arrive next Thursday and Friday and everything I am looking at right now says it should be snow.   But, I am not ready to hang my hat on any exact details.   Hands down, if you want snow… keep your eye on the end of next week.

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