Spring flood outlook

February 28th, 2013 at 10:59 am by under Weather

While we have stressed mostly negative aspects of the drought there are a few positives. Since we don’t have a snow pack across our area and river levels are slightly below normal the chances for considerable flooding are down through May of this year. Of course this could change with significant and even rainfall well above normal. Here is the outlook for area rivers:

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE 
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE 
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE... INDIANA  
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.2 FEET. WABASH
INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN THE 
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO
OR ABOVE 13.8 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID FEBRUARY 21 2013 - MAY 26 2013... 

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

ST. JOSEPH RIVER...
SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0   8.9  9.5 11.1 11.9 13.0 14.2 14.9
NEWVILLE IN       12.0   9.7 10.7 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.9
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0   5.9  7.7  9.1 10.6 12.5 15.3 19.2

ST. MARYS RIVER...
SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0   9.1 11.5 13.1 16.4 17.8 20.5 20.9
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0   5.9  6.9  8.3 10.6 12.3 15.0 16.8

MAUMEE RIVER...
MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0   7.5 10.8 14.0 15.5 17.9 19.2 21.6
DEFIANCE OH       10.0   3.6  4.3  5.2  6.2  7.0  8.9  9.5
NAPOLEON OH       12.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0

TIFFIN RIVER...
TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0   9.5 11.4 12.4 13.0 13.7 15.2 16.1

BLANCHARD RIVER...
BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0  18.4 18.9 20.0 21.5 22.9 23.8 23.8

AUGLAIZE RIVER...
AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0   6.1  7.2  9.6 11.8 13.5 15.4 16.9
DEFIANCE OH       21.0  10.9 11.5 13.8 15.4 17.5 20.1 21.3

UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER...
WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE        11.0   7.5  7.9  8.7  9.7 10.7 12.5 13.2
BLUFFTON IN       10.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
WABASH IN         14.0   7.8  9.1 10.5 11.6 12.9 13.8 14.5
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0   6.2  7.0  7.7  8.2  9.1 10.2 11.0

TIPPECANOE RIVER...
TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0   8.6  9.3 10.3 11.3 12.1 13.6 15.3
WINAMAC IN        10.0   6.7  7.3  8.2  9.1  9.9 12.1 15.1

MISSISSINEWA RIVER... 
MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0   4.4  4.6  6.2  7.2  8.1  9.3 10.2

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT 
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE 
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE 
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE 
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE 
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG 
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. 

THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE 
DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. 
AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES AND RIVERS AHPS.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW COVER EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF 
NORTHERN INDIANA AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SNOW
DEPTHS UP TO 5 INCHES OR MORE ARE OBSERVED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE 
AREA HAVE SNOW DEPTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE FROST DEPTHS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. 

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
RIVER CONDITIONS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST YEAR...VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RIVER RISES HAVE OCCURRED THIS SEASON. A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND WILL BRING WITH IT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS TIME...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS VALID THROUGH THE END OF MAY INDICATE
A 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE WHILE 
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY 
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND 
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE 
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY AND UPDATED
AS NEEDED FOR THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS.

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