Probability of 4″ of snow between 8AM Sunday and 8AM Monday, courtesy “The Weather Prediction Center”

Are you sick and tired of the cold weather?  Are you ready for some spring like temperatures?   Well, I have some really bad news folks.  There is a very moderate to high chance we are going to be breaking out our shovels on Sunday.  Since the morning model runs have not come in yet, I am not going to post or link the data from the overnight, but take a look at the graphic above.  This is from the Weather Prediction Center, and it is a map showing the chance of 4″ of snow between 8AM Sunday and 8AM Monday.  Now, I am not saying this is how much snow we are getting and don’t 100% agree with the area with the highest chance of snow, but it’s a really good indicator of what’s coming.  Here is the link if you want to play with the interactive maps and see who has the best chance to see a foot of snow, according the NOAA.

If you have been watching my forecasts from earlier in the week, you would have heard talk about the final “storm track” of this Sunday storm.  Here is the actual graphic I used Wednesday evening:

Futurecast model run from Wednesday afternoon with possible storm tracks.

At that time, the models were jumping all over the place with the final storm track on Sunday.  Why is this important?  If you know the final storm track, you know exactly where the heavy snow will be.

• If the storm tracked to the North, we would see mix of snow and rain.
• If the storm tracked to the South, we would completely miss it.
• If the storm tracked across Southern Indiana (middle solution), we would get hammered with snow.

Guess what the overnight forecast models did?  Two of the forecast models, the NAM and the GFS, both took the middle storm track, bringing us significant snow.   Before I put out my final forecast numbers (an actual snow forecast with snow amounts), I want to see the morning model runs.  At that point, the core of the storm will be over the Northern Rockies, not over Alaska, and the final approach will be better handled by the models.

In summary:  By this early afternoon, the proof will be in the pudding and we will have a good idea of how much snow we will be shoveling on Sunday.

PS:  There is no 5PM show today due to March Madness, so make sure you either watch the 6PM Newscast, or check in on the video forecast later today.