Greg Shoup

Latest on white Christmas forecast

December 19th, 2014 at 12:33 pm by under Weather
The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The huge system still looks in place for snowfall across the northeast United States. The interesting development is that our European forecast solution is changing the rain to snow by about 1pm Wednesday with some moisture left over. This solution could bring a few inches of snowfall just in time for Christmas Eve.

To be fair the American solution or GFS is showing the precipitation as all rain.

The physics used on the European solution are considered superior to the GFS solution. This could change as this system moves closer. A couple of things to look at here. Each run of our models has shown colder air moving in Wednesday, so that seems to be a trend. The other thing we are looking for as meteorologists is some sort of consistency between these two solutions. That would solidify the forecast more. Look for that to happen by early next week if not sooner.

Keep in mind that this system is not even on the coast yet so the path could change and even a small change would have a great impact in the amount of rain or snow which will track across our region.

12/19 7 day forecast.

12/19 7 day forecast.


Holiday snowfall update

December 18th, 2014 at 9:49 am by under Weather

The forecast gets more interesting and at the same time more complicated with each run of our mathematical model. Updates from yesterday show this massive low pressure system still creating a huge snow for the northeastern United States with rain through NE Indiana Tuesday. However, new developments and now both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) have the rain snow line shifting earlier than yesterday’s runs. This scenario has the rain/snow change over happening around 7am Wednesday morning and has a couple of inches of snow falling through late Christmas Eve.

This scenario will continue to change over the next several days but it be of ‘high interest’ for our meteorologists to track this over the next 60 to 72 hours.

If you are traveling toward the northeastern United States you may see a significant travel hazard and a possible change of plans.

Of course we will keep you updated.


Very interesting forecast continues to unfold

December 17th, 2014 at 12:24 pm by under Weather
Forecast ECMWF model 0z (7pm) Tuesday

Forecast ECMWF model 0z (7pm) Tuesday

The forecast continues to unfold into a varied view of what may happen next week. By Tuesday a huge Nor ‘Easter moves toward the east coast. We could see part of this system across our area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now it looks like the warm sector of this system will move through the Great Lakes Region with heavy snowfall possible east of that. We will continue to track the changes that this weather system will bring. If the track changes by just a couple hundred miles we could see snow instead of rain for the 23rd and 24th.


Interesting 10 to 15 day forecast

December 16th, 2014 at 11:46 am by under Weather
6 to 10 day forecast (NOAA) (WPC)

6 to 10 day forecast (NOAA) (WPC)

The 6 to 10 f0recast has above normal temperatures through the Christmas holiday. However, there are some changes to that forecast using a couple of different forecast or mathematical solutions that have some snow on Christmas Eve. The biggest change in the next 16 day forecast model analysis¬† though is the temperature for New Years. The Global Forecast System solution or commonly called the “American” model has the coldest air of the new winter season on the way in. It’s still a long ways out but it is certainly worth watching for holiday travel.


Temperature inversion and what it means to our forecast

December 12th, 2014 at 11:48 am by under Weather
A temperature inversion looks like this many times with mostly cloudy skies

A temperature inversion looks like this many times with mostly cloudy skies

Temperature inversion diagram. (NWS, NOAA)

Temperature inversion diagram. (NWS, NOAA)

As we started the day we were seeing cold air in the lower 20s, which in itself is not untypical for this time of year. However, that cold air was trapped at the surface and created what is know as a temperature inversion. The word inversion simply means reverse or backwards and that is applied to what happened in our forecast. Instead of finding colder air as you move up in the atmosphere you would instead find colder air which acts almost like a cap and traps the cold heavier air at the surface.


White Christmas, a look ahead

December 11th, 2014 at 8:15 am by under Weather
Global Forecast Model depicts temps in the 20s and light snow for Christmas Day

Global Forecast Model depicts temps in the 20s and light snow for Christmas Day

It may be a far fetching extended forecast but here it is. The Global Forecast System which is commonly called the “American Model’ now has light snow and temperatures in the 20s for Christmas day.¬† While this is a long way out and certainly subject to change it’s the first glimpse of what the holiday may bring across the area.


Heavy rainfall still on track

December 5th, 2014 at 10:21 am by under Weather
Late morning snap shot of clouds and precipitation moving toward NE Indiana

Late morning snap shot of clouds and precipitation moving toward NE Indiana

Heavy rainfall is moving on track toward the area across Indiana and Illinois. This is still a solid band of rainfall and will dump a formidable amount of moisture across the area through this evening.

Futurecast has heavy rainfall across the area through tonight

Futurecast has heavy rainfall across the area through tonight

According to Futurecast high resolution model imagery we will see heavy rainfall through 9 pm this evening. This rainfall is expected to be heavy through at least 1 am Saturday morning according to Futurecast.

 

 

 


Heavy rainfall a possibility late Friday

December 4th, 2014 at 8:51 am by under Weather
Futurecast has heavy rainfall forecast for late Friday

Futurecast has heavy rainfall forecast for late Friday

New forecast data coming in from our high resolution Futurecast solution has heavy rainfall across the area which begins late Friday afternoon and lingers into Friday evening. Through midnight Saturday totals are most impressive just south of Fort Wayne as pacific moisture comes toward our area.


AWS Festival of Lights

November 26th, 2014 at 12:47 pm by under Weather
Open each night starting tonight

Open each night starting tonight

AWS Festival of Lights begins tonight and it raises money for a great cause. It will be rather cold for this event but the good news is you can drive through Franke Park with the heat on inside your car. You don’t ever have to get out! This event begins tonight and runs each evening through December 31st.


Tricky travel weather

November 25th, 2014 at 10:43 am by under Weather

Your trip to grandma’s house may be a little tricky if you are leaving Wednesday. A large scale weather system will move across the eastern third of the U.S. causing heavy rainfall along the coast and heavy snowfall inland. This snowfall will spread into New York by Wednesday evening which will most likely cause lots of travel headaches.