Drought Monitor (NOAA)

Last year we were bringing almost daily updates to you about the drought. We are hoping this year we will not have to do the same thing. A wet April has led to a fairly dry May so far but that will most like change next week with more showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday. There are many tools that the National Weather Service and its parent agency NOAA use to monitor the drought.

NOAA has introduced a web site which has all the tools in one place necessary to monitor drought conditions.  At the web site you can access precipitation and climatological reports which include The Palmer Drought Index.

The Gulfstream V (National Science Foundation/NOAA)

The National Severe Storms Laboratory and two major universities will join forces today for a project to study thunderstorm development. The method is reminiscent of the Hurricane Hunter project which sends aircraft into the eye of the storm to drop probes to study it. This project called   Mesoscale Predictability EXperiment (MPEX) will take this aircraft up to 40,000 feet to research atmospheric conditions before and after thunderstorms. This data will be added to the numerical forecast models which operational meteorologists use everyday to forecast these storms. It is hoped that this data will add insight to these models so meteorologists will have a better idea when and where these storms will strike with even more warning. ]

You can read more about this project here.

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012, shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. The storm is heading in a northwestern direction towards the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast.

I believe that hurricane Sandy has been one of the most highly scrutinized and written about storms of our time. From the strong emergence of the European Forecast Model and it’s “dead on” predictions for storm movement to the evolution to make it a new category or so called “Super Storm”.

There are really two parts of Sandy and that’s what makes it such an intriguing storm. One of course the extra tropical hurricane part of the storm and other part which baffled scientists and that is the land cyclone that this storm became. It was not only a monster at see but as it made landfall it caused widespread coastal damaged but also combined with another storm to make a power land based storm as well. Certainly not a typical Nor’ Easter by any means. This aspect is what made the storm difficult to forecast and also gave the agencies involved with forecasting the movement of the storms fits.

In fact, The National Hurricane Center stopped issuing forecasts on the storm when they believed that it was a land based storm and did not believe the storm met its requirements to continue coverage. This led to quite a bit of criticism from broadcast meteorologists who thought the uniqueness of this storm should have allowed the Hurricane Center to track it. It also caused many warnings to slip through the cracks and as you probably know the damage was massive.

Here is the Final Assessment from NOAA and some of the changes which have been brought about by this storm coverage.

Midland Weather Radio

We are in day two of our Midland Weather Radio programing event. Below you will find a schedule of the remaining events and where to find one near you. So why a weather radio? If there is a siren near your house isn’t that good enough? Keep in mind that sirens are meant to be heard outside and not really an inside warning system. There have been many instances where sirens have failed and the only means of getting a warning was your weather radio. In fact, there was an event in Minnesota last year where the sirens failed but the weather radios activated and lives were saved.

So keep in mind that during situations where quick action is needed a weather radio may be your only source to get the weather warning. After you receive the warning quick action is needed and you can get additional information by watching WANE TV and our meteorologists will be able to give you a current track of the storm and show you what time it will hit your area.

Locations for WANE-TV Weather Radio Programming Events

So you bought your weather radio and you are still at a loss on how to program the thing. Then it’s as easy as going to one of our free programming events listed above this week. Even if you haven’t purchased your weather radio you can do it right there.

Did you know that the Indiana Legislature passed a Bill in 2007 that all manufactured homes must have a weather radio. This legislation was because of a tornado in 2005 in Evansville that killed 25 people in a mobile home park. Please consider this if you live in a mobile home. It’s something you must have to stay safe in the storm.

Come to the programming event near you this week.

Corn planting should begin to gain ground on one of the slowest planting years in history. Plagued by of one of the wettest Aprils in history the corn crop planting is only at about 12% according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly report released Monday. The drier weather will help farmer’s gain ground and it’s expected that 40 to 50% of the crop should be planted by Monday. That would catch farmers up to the 20 year average which is 47% of corn planted by this date.

8 to 14 day forecast (NOAA)

The 8 to 14 day forecast which begins May 17th through the 23rd has below average temperatures. Average temperatures are the lower 70s.

8 to 14 day precipitation forecast (NOAA)

The 8 to 14 day precipitation forecast has slightly above average chances for above normal rainfall during the same period. So farmers will need to make more progress this week in planting. Besides the light frost Monday morning temperatures should be well above average for much of the week with precipitation chances late Wednesday and into Thursday.

Slight Risk for Severe Storms (SPC)

Here is the latest outlook for our area. Part of it still sits in the Storm Prediction Center’s ‘slight risk area’. This indicates that we could see strong storms through this evening with the main threat gusty winds over 65 mph. Showers and storms will continue to move in from the southwest during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.

Here is where you can buy a weather radio and have it programmed

Besides keeping in touch with WANE on the broadcast, mobile and web platforms you can also go one step further in protecting yourself and your family and that’s purchasing a weather radio. WANE has partnered with Midland to bring you weather radios at a reduced cost. These weather radios can be programmed to just listen for alerts in the county you live in. You can go here and look for the code which corresponds to your county or you can come to one of the radio programming days near you. While you there you can purchase a weather radio and have it programmed or simply bring your radio in and have it programmed at no charge.

National Weather Service studies have shown over and over again that areas which have these radios in area homes respond more quickly to weather emergencies and get to safety much more quickly because they keep informed about weather emergencies.

Here is a graphic representing the latest freezes/frosts over the last 30 years. (NWS)

A very cool weather system is headed across our area over the next few days and not only will it bring thunderstorms but also something which has everyone talking FROST. Yep, a frost. If you look at the history over the last 30 years you can see by the graphic above that it is not totally out of the realm of possibilities that we see a frost through the middle of May. That’s why it’s always been a rule of mine that I seem to talk about each year. Don’t plant until the middle of May or after.

While last year was very unusual with the lack of rainfall this year has been the exact opposite with a cold April and what has been a near normal to slightly above normal beginning to May.

Also keep in mind that we see close to 4″ of rainfall in May so we could still see some heavier rainfall over the next three weeks. In fact, take a look at precipitation estimates over the next 36 hours according to our high resolution forecast model.

Rainfall estimates (Futurecast)

NASA is planning an expedition to capture an asteroid.
(Credit: NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office)

Sci Fi meets reality as NASA is developing a new technology to send astronauts to a threatening asteroid to avoid apocalypse.  If you remember the 1998 movie “Armageddon” Ben Affleck and his friends were sent to an Asteroid to save earth. So in future asteroids will not be a threat to the mere existence of the Earth. Here’s more on NASA’s announcement.

Current pattern (Zonal flow)

The current pattern of low pressure traveling freely from east to west will come to an end later this week. A “zonal flow” which means the main flow of the jet stream stays to the north of our area. This assures that we will have warmer days and nights. It also keeps severe weather out of most of the U.S. since the jet stream creates buoyancy which is a key factor causing lift in the atmosphere.

This week we will see a weather system travel unimpeded from west to east. By Thursday, we will see showers and storms but more importantly by Saturday, low pressure will bring the winds of the jet stream south.

Sunday Jet Stream Pattern

This is what the pattern will look like by Sunday as the colder air will be dragged south. This may bring unseasonably cold air to the picture by Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures will really take a plunge with highs in the 50s and 60s.