Greg Shoup

Severe weather possible late today and tonight

September 1st, 2014 at 5:49 am by under Weather
Slight Risk area includes all of our region (Storm Prediction Center)

Slight Risk area includes all of our region (Storm Prediction Center)

The Storm Prediction Center has put our area in the Slight Risk category for late today and tonight. A weather system moving in from the west will cause some forcing that will increase our chances for strong storms with the high afternoon heating.

Biggest threats for wind and large hail

Biggest threats for wind and large hail

The two biggest threats this afternoon and evening will be large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds of over 60 mph.

A line of strong or severe storms is possible by early evening

A line of strong or severe storms is possible by early evening

Futurecast has a line of severe storms possible as early as 5 to 7pm tonight.

Futurecast rainfall totals

Futurecast rainfall totals

Heavy rainfall is also possible through late this evening with strong storms and heavy rainfall especially south of Fort Wayne.

 

 


Weekend rainfall

August 29th, 2014 at 8:19 am by under Weather
Weekend rainfall estimates from Weather Prediction Center (NWS)

Weekend rainfall estimates from Weather Prediction Center (NWS)

Rainfall will be heaviest this weekend Saturday and Saturday night. Although this estimate puts the heaviest rainfall south of Indiana. That’s where most of our forecast solutions are putting it as well.

Futurecast puts a little less than .50" across the area through early Sunday

Futurecast puts a little less than .50″ across the area through early Sunday

Futurecast puts under a half inch across the are through early Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall possible by next week

Heavy rainfall possible by next week

Kind of interesting as we look ahead. Some of our forecast solutions have over an inch of rain for Tuesday of next week. This will be an interesting beginning to what we call meteorological fall.

 


Hurricanes on both coasts

August 28th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under Weather

A very active week for both coasts as tropical storm Marie has caused 30-foot swells across the pacific coast line of California.

Meanwhile, another hurricane called Cristobal is causing large swells on the east coast. Although there is quite a bit of activity right now neither storm is expected to make the shore line or cause major issues with the exception of large waves.


Amazing pictures from outer space

August 27th, 2014 at 11:17 am by under Weather
View from outer space of hurricane Marie from Astronaut Ben Wiseman (NASA)

View from outer space of hurricane Marie from Astronaut Reid Wiseman (NASA)

Some amazing pictures and an amazing story of astronaut Reid Wiseman who is now at the International Space Station. Wiseman’s pictures have been nothing short of fantastic. The one from yesterday of hurricane Marie off the pacific coast is spectacular.

Astronaut Reid Wiseman

Astronaut Reid Wiseman

You can view all of Wiseman’s ‘tweets’ and pictures by viewing his Twitter account. Even if you are not a Twitter person these shots are worth seeing.


Late fall forecast points toward El Nino event

August 26th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather
Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook for November, December and January

Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook for November, December and January

National Weather Service computer models used by the Climate Prediction Center are now predicting a 78% chance of an El Nino by late fall. You can see the late fall outlook above with above average temperatures. This would correspond to an El Nino pattern across most of the United States.  An El Nino weather pattern would cause most of the United States to see above average temperatures and below average precipitation. California and the southeast would be the exception because during El Nino years there is usually heavy rainfall. This is true across the southeastern U.S. as well.

This pattern persists because during these situations a strong west-east flow is created which is called a ‘zonal flow’. This pattern is generally a mild pattern as it brings warmer pacific air across much of the northern states.


When it gets really hot and sticky

August 25th, 2014 at 11:00 am by under Weather
The muggy meter gives you a quick idea on what it 'feels like' outside

The muggy meter gives you a quick idea on what it ‘feels like’ outside

As the August heat has reemerged this last week we are just beginning to deal with really humid days. We talk about a couple different factors when we forecast heat and humidity. The first factor is dew point. This is one of the variables that we use more in the weather center because it is much more scientifically accurate and represents the true nature of what the weather will be like.

What you need to know about the dew point is simply that any dew point temperature over 65° is considered uncomfortable. As the dew point rises it becomes more uncomfortable. A dew point of 70° can be very uncomfortable. This plays into the forecast for Tuesday. We are expecting only our third 90 degree day of the year. The dew point will be at 71° by afternoon. We combine the temperature and the dew point and we get the relative humidity.

Relative humidity is simply the humidity relative to the temperature. So for example our humidity tomorrow will be over 50%. While that doesn’t sound oppressive, if you say the dew point  will be 71° you now have a very good idea that it will be very humid and rather uncomfortable by afternoon.

Why is high humidity uncomfortable to humans? Well, our body uses a system of cooling itself by evaporation of the sweat that we create when we are hot. If the dew point is over 65° then the evaporation rate slows down and there is an abundance of moisture that stays in the air and on your skin and your bodies cooling system does not work as well. That’s what we mean when we say it will be rather uncomfortable.

 

 


Flooding pictures

August 22nd, 2014 at 10:44 am by under Weather

Here are a few pictures coming in from viewers of the flooding around our area.

Here is a summary of rainfall reports from around the area:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSW MARION            40.49N  85.67W
08/21/2014  M1.70 INCH       GRANT              IN   AWOS            

            4 HOUR TOTAL 

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW BREMS              41.31N  86.74W
08/21/2014                   STARKE             IN   911 CALL CENTER 

            TREE DOWN AT SR-8 AND 39 

1008 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N HUNTINGTON          40.96N  85.50W
08/21/2014  M2.59 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC          

            TOTAL FOR THE DAY 

0318 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARTFORD CITY           40.45N  85.37W
08/22/2014                   BLACKFORD          IN   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING IN HARTFORD CITY WITH 
            POTENTIALLY A FOOT OR MORE OF WATER IN SOME AREAS. 

0405 AM     FLOOD            FORT WAYNE              41.08N  85.13W
08/22/2014                   ALLEN              IN   911 CALL CENTER 

            FORT WAYNE POST REPORTED WATER PONDING ON PORTIONS OF 
            INTERSTATE 69 NEAR MILE MARKER 304. 

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE ROLLING HILLS      41.07N  85.23W
08/22/2014  M4.31 INCH       ALLEN              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            2 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 330 AM TO 530 AM. 

0558 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARION                  40.56N  85.66W
08/22/2014                   GRANT              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            MANY ROADS FLOODED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY WITH ONE TO 
            2.5 FEET OF WATER. 

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE MARION             40.60N  85.59W
08/22/2014  M7.35 INCH       GRANT              IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0607 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE MONTICELLO        40.76N  86.76W
08/22/2014  M3.70 INCH       WHITE              IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR TOTAL. 

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ESE NORTH JUDSON      41.18N  86.67W
08/22/2014  M3.75 INCH       STARKE             IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0620 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE MONTPELIER         40.54N  85.26W
08/22/2014  M8.00 INCH       BLACKFORD          IN   PUBLIC          

            24 HOUR TOTAL. STILL RAINING AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT. 

0626 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW NORTH JUDSON      41.20N  86.78W
08/22/2014  M6.35 INCH       STARKE             IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0632 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW NORTH JUDSON       41.17N  86.83W
08/22/2014  M4.60 INCH       STARKE             IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0635 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTICELLO              40.75N  86.76W
08/22/2014  M3.29 INCH       WHITE              IN   AWOS            

            10 HOUR TOTAL. 

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE VAN BUREN          40.60N  85.49W
08/22/2014  M7.43 INCH       GRANT              IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR TOTAL. 

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PENNVILLE               40.49N  85.15W
08/22/2014  M6.30 INCH       JAY                IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HUNTINGTON              40.88N  85.51W
08/22/2014  M6.10 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE FORT WAYNE         41.05N  85.24W
08/22/2014  M6.40 INCH       ALLEN              IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0710 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E MARION              40.56N  85.54W
08/22/2014                   GRANT              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            INTERSTATE 69 HAS BEEN CLOSED IN EASTERN GRANT COUNTY 
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE INTERSTATE. 

0710 AM     FLOOD            BROOKSTON               40.60N  86.87W
08/22/2014                   WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER ON ROADWAY NEAR STATE ROAD 18 
            EAST AND 43 SOUTH. 

0724 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW ROLL              40.58N  85.41W
08/22/2014  E5.00 INCH       WELLS              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. 

0726 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WARREN                  40.68N  85.43W
08/22/2014  M4.50 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC          

            RAIN STILL FALLING. 

0737 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E MARION              40.56N  85.58W
08/22/2014                   GRANT              IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MANY REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS...STALLED 
            VEHICLES....FLOOD DEBRIS IN ROADWAYS....WATER AS DEEP AS 
            3 FEET DEEP ACROSS SOME ROADS. 

0747 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARTFORD CITY           40.45N  85.37W
08/22/2014                   BLACKFORD          IN   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            MANY COUNTY AND STATE ROADS CLOSED COUNTYWIDE DUE TO 
            FLOODING. MANY STRANDED VEHICLES. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HARTFORD CITY           40.46N  85.37W
08/22/2014  M9.70 INCH       BLACKFORD          IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE HARTFORD CITY     40.44N  85.29W
08/22/2014  M9.00 INCH       BLACKFORD          IN   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N MEDARYVILLE         41.16N  86.90W
08/22/2014  M5.82 INCH       PULASKI            IN   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WANATAH                 41.43N  86.90W
08/22/2014  M4.12 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE ANDREWS           40.84N  85.55W
08/22/2014  M5.50 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW PORTLAND          40.42N  85.03W
08/22/2014  M4.45 INCH       JAY                IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NNW MONTICELLO        40.82N  86.79W
08/22/2014  M4.12 INCH       WHITE              IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PORTLAND                40.43N  84.98W
08/22/2014  M4.04 INCH       JAY                IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0813 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N HUNTINGTON          40.96N  85.50W
08/22/2014  M4.01 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC          

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW HARTFORD CITY      40.51N  85.43W
08/22/2014  M10.63 INCH      BLACKFORD          IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW KNOX               41.25N  86.68W
08/22/2014  M4.05 INCH       STARKE             IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR STORM TOTAL. 

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FRANCESVILLE            40.99N  86.88W
08/22/2014  M4.50 INCH       PULASKI            IN   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            24 HOUR TOTAL. 

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW LA CROSSE          41.35N  86.93W
08/22/2014  M6.13 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   COCORAHS        

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

Very heavy rainfall totals

August 22nd, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Weather
Early morning rainfall from Fort Wayne and south.

Early morning rainfall from Fort Wayne and south.

Heavy rainfall caused major flooding south of Fort Wayne. Many county roads are closed in Blackford and Jay counties this morning with standing water in some places at 3.5 feet.


Flash flooding

August 22nd, 2014 at 5:20 am by under Weather
Flash Flood Warning this AM

Flash Flood Warning this AM

There are flash flood warnings out this morning for heavy rainfall over 3 inches possible in just 2 to 3 hours. This heavy rainfall should begin to taper off by 9am this morning.

4" of rainfall Doppler estimated rainfall. south of Fort Wayne

4″ of rainfall Doppler estimated rainfall. south of Fort Wayne


Severe weather and heavy rainfall

August 21st, 2014 at 5:57 am by under Weather

The Storm Prediction has put our area into the slight risk category for this afternoon and this evening. We are especially looking for gusty thunderstorm winds exceeding 60 mph and also some large hail. There is also a risk of tornadoes across western and central Indiana.

Satellite rainfall estimates from NOAA

Satellite rainfall estimates from NOAA

One of the other problems will be just to our west and south as we could see heavy rainfall creating flash flooding. Rainfall rates could be up to 2″ an hour at times. This rainfall is moving in from Wisconsin and our area will be just to the east of this boundary this afternoon and evening.