September 1st, 2014 at 5:49 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Slight Risk area includes all of our region (Storm Prediction Center)
The Storm Prediction Center has put our area in the Slight Risk category for late today and tonight. A weather system moving in from the west will cause some forcing that will increase our chances for strong storms with the high afternoon heating.
Biggest threats for wind and large hail
The two biggest threats this afternoon and evening will be large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds of over 60 mph.
A line of strong or severe storms is possible by early evening
Futurecast has a line of severe storms possible as early as 5 to 7pm tonight.
Futurecast rainfall totals
Heavy rainfall is also possible through late this evening with strong storms and heavy rainfall especially south of Fort Wayne.
August 29th, 2014 at 8:19 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Weekend rainfall estimates from Weather Prediction Center (NWS)
Rainfall will be heaviest this weekend Saturday and Saturday night. Although this estimate puts the heaviest rainfall south of Indiana. That’s where most of our forecast solutions are putting it as well.
Futurecast puts a little less than .50″ across the area through early Sunday
Futurecast puts under a half inch across the are through early Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall possible by next week
Kind of interesting as we look ahead. Some of our forecast solutions have over an inch of rain for Tuesday of next week. This will be an interesting beginning to what we call meteorological fall.
August 28th, 2014 at 8:39 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
TS Marie has caused large waves on pacific California coast
Hurricane Cristobal effecting the east coast
A very active week for both coasts as tropical storm Marie has caused 30-foot swells across the pacific coast line of California.
Meanwhile, another hurricane called Cristobal is causing large swells on the east coast. Although there is quite a bit of activity right now neither storm is expected to make the shore line or cause major issues with the exception of large waves.
August 27th, 2014 at 11:17 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
View from outer space of hurricane Marie from Astronaut Reid Wiseman (NASA)
Some amazing pictures and an amazing story of astronaut Reid Wiseman who is now at the International Space Station. Wiseman’s pictures have been nothing short of fantastic. The one from yesterday of hurricane Marie off the pacific coast is spectacular.
Astronaut Reid Wiseman
You can view all of Wiseman’s ‘tweets’ and pictures by viewing his Twitter account. Even if you are not a Twitter person these shots are worth seeing.
August 26th, 2014 at 9:17 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook for November, December and January
National Weather Service computer models used by the Climate Prediction Center are now predicting a 78% chance of an El Nino by late fall. You can see the late fall outlook above with above average temperatures. This would correspond to an El Nino pattern across most of the United States. An El Nino weather pattern would cause most of the United States to see above average temperatures and below average precipitation. California and the southeast would be the exception because during El Nino years there is usually heavy rainfall. This is true across the southeastern U.S. as well.
This pattern persists because during these situations a strong west-east flow is created which is called a ‘zonal flow’. This pattern is generally a mild pattern as it brings warmer pacific air across much of the northern states.
August 25th, 2014 at 11:00 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
The muggy meter gives you a quick idea on what it ‘feels like’ outside
As the August heat has reemerged this last week we are just beginning to deal with really humid days. We talk about a couple different factors when we forecast heat and humidity. The first factor is dew point. This is one of the variables that we use more in the weather center because it is much more scientifically accurate and represents the true nature of what the weather will be like.
What you need to know about the dew point is simply that any dew point temperature over 65° is considered uncomfortable. As the dew point rises it becomes more uncomfortable. A dew point of 70° can be very uncomfortable. This plays into the forecast for Tuesday. We are expecting only our third 90 degree day of the year. The dew point will be at 71° by afternoon. We combine the temperature and the dew point and we get the relative humidity.
Relative humidity is simply the humidity relative to the temperature. So for example our humidity tomorrow will be over 50%. While that doesn’t sound oppressive, if you say the dew point will be 71° you now have a very good idea that it will be very humid and rather uncomfortable by afternoon.
Why is high humidity uncomfortable to humans? Well, our body uses a system of cooling itself by evaporation of the sweat that we create when we are hot. If the dew point is over 65° then the evaporation rate slows down and there is an abundance of moisture that stays in the air and on your skin and your bodies cooling system does not work as well. That’s what we mean when we say it will be rather uncomfortable.
August 22nd, 2014 at 10:44 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
August 22nd, 2014 at 8:03 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Early morning rainfall from Fort Wayne and south.
Heavy rainfall caused major flooding south of Fort Wayne. Many county roads are closed in Blackford and Jay counties this morning with standing water in some places at 3.5 feet.
August 22nd, 2014 at 5:20 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Flash Flood Warning this AM
There are flash flood warnings out this morning for heavy rainfall over 3 inches possible in just 2 to 3 hours. This heavy rainfall should begin to taper off by 9am this morning.
4″ of rainfall Doppler estimated rainfall. south of Fort Wayne
August 21st, 2014 at 5:57 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Biggest risk for gusty storm winds and large hail
Slight risk for severe weather
The Storm Prediction has put our area into the slight risk category for this afternoon and this evening. We are especially looking for gusty thunderstorm winds exceeding 60 mph and also some large hail. There is also a risk of tornadoes across western and central Indiana.
Satellite rainfall estimates from NOAA
One of the other problems will be just to our west and south as we could see heavy rainfall creating flash flooding. Rainfall rates could be up to 2″ an hour at times. This rainfall is moving in from Wisconsin and our area will be just to the east of this boundary this afternoon and evening.