The cold air is right on schedule and we expect frigid conditions tonight as you venture out to get your goodies. Temperatures will only be in the upper 30s by 5 pm and by the time you head in with your treats we will expect temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. The other factor you will have to deal with is wind. Winds will be out of the west and north and gusty through this evening up to 40 mph. This will cause a considerable problem with chills down into the lower 20s. Please take extra care and bundle up. Consider glove and hats as well.
An early look at Halloween, especially during the ‘trick or treat’ hours is more of a trick than a treat. As a secondary shot of cold air comes streaming down from the north, we will see mostly cloudy skies with rain changing to some light snow showers. We are not expecting significant accumulation. The other problems will be wind and cold temperatures. Winds will gust up to 30 mph, making significant wind chills which will feel like the twenties! Temperatures will drop off quickly by evening into the 30s.
As we are experiencing the first wave of cold air a second and more potent wave of low pressure is taking shape. This ‘clipper’ type system will bring very light snow with now accumulation expected right now across the northern third of our viewing area.
Accumulating snow will be expected across portions of the east which include northern Michigan and the northern Appalachians. In some of these areas 3 to 6″ of snow may fall. We are only expecting a dusting across our area at best, but we will see our first snowflakes of the season and temperatures will be very cold as highs may only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Here are rainfall reports from around the area through 11 am Tuesday morning. Also the graphic next to the rainfall reports is Doppler estimated rainfall which looks like it closely coincides with the rainfall reports. A very narrow line of heavier rainfall from Huntington to Fort Wayne to northwestern Ohio.
This morning we experienced the first wave of low pressure which will begin to bring in colder air over the next 24 hours. High temperatures from Monday in the 70s will be down in the 50s by Wednesday afternoon.
The satellite and radar composite this morning is pinpointing the second wave of colder air to our northwest. This wave will move through late Thursday afternoon and evening. That will force temperatures down to into the 40s by Friday. These very cold temperatures will be here through much of the weekend.
While we are basking in the sun today we will be digging our coats out later this week as we see several waves of low pressure move through and that will mean a completely different forecast for the end of the week then we are experiencing right now.
Our first change comes overnight and early Tuesday as a strong wave of low pressure moves in. This will create some thunderstorms early Tuesday morning. Because of the timing of these storms the thinking now is that they will not be severe. We will still see some brief heavy rainfall and the Futurecast rainfall graphic above shows about .50″ possible and that’s mostly early Tuesday.
The secondary wave moves through on Thursday. This will be followed by cold high pressure from Canada which will bring a frigid Halloween forecast.
It’s not the normal way you’d think it should happen. Usually when weather people talk about a system moving in this time of year from the west or northwest they are referring to cold air. This time it’s quite the opposite situation. You see, cold air was already in place and has been sitting here because of arctic high pressure all week. What this pacific weather system actually accomplished was to displace the colder air mass and replace it with more moderate warm air. This system will be responsible for beginning our weekend and early next week warm up.
Flooding is an issue we are all too familiar with in our region with three rivers that traverse our area. One of the problems with forecasting flood waters is that very little has been done to make forecasts more timely and reliable. That is until recently. The University of Iowa has introduced a new flooding model system that is many strides ahead ofthe National Weather Service is doing. In fact, you could say it is decades ahead of what the NWS is able to do.
Here is more on this new model and what Weather Service officials are saying about it.
This warming trend that we are expecting this weekend may last a little longer, maybe moving into the end of the month. The new Climate Prediction Center Outlook for 8 to 14 days has temperatures slightly above average from October 29th-November 4th and precipitation well above average through the same period, so it may be a wet end of the month and starting of November as well.