Greg Shoup

Weekend weather pattern could be active

July 24th, 2014 at 10:44 am by under Weather
A strong jet stream pattern over the area Saturday

A strong jet stream pattern over the area Saturday

The weekend will boast more humidity, warmer temperatures and a powerful cold front which will bring drier air into the area which will drastically change the forecast next week. By Saturday we see the heat and humidity taking  over with a strong jet stream wind pattern across our area. The strong jet stream pattern creates extra lift in the atmosphere and that lift creates buoyancy which is something strong and severe thunderstorms thrive on.  The strong winds of the jet stream can cause quick storm development in an already unstable environment with heat and humidity building through the afternoon.

Large "Slight Risk" area forecast by the Storm Prediction Center

Large “Slight Risk” area forecast by the Storm Prediction Center

Because of these factors the Storm Prediction Center has put most the Midwest and Great Lakes Region in the “Slight Risk” area for severe thunderstorms. It will be interesting to see how this will develop on Saturday and Saturday night for our area.

 


Rain comes and leaves quickly

July 23rd, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather
Doppler estimated rainfall through 8am Wenesday 7/23/14

Doppler estimated rainfall through 8am Wenesday 7/23/14

For the most part a rather meager rainfall for most areas. However, there were some places that did see more rain. The lighter green on this map indicates those areas of heavier rainfall. Over an inch just east of Fort Wayne in Paulding county, Ohio. Decatur and Berne seeing healthy rainfall totals of .75″. This month will most likely end with a rainfall deficit unless there is significant rain over the weekend and right now our forecast solutions are not really showing higher rainfall totals.

Greg_4


90 degree days have been rare this year

July 22nd, 2014 at 11:19 am by under Weather

This summer has been unusual as it has really not produced that many days of oppressive heat. So far July has been the most unusual month with 16 days that have seen below average temperatures.  Four days have seen above average temperatures and only one day has seen what is considered the 30-year average temperature.

The 90 degree days have been almost absent with only two so far and both were in the month of June. If the temperatures reach highs above 90 today it would be first for July and would of course be the warmest temperature of the month.

As I blogged yesterday we most likely will be below normal for the rest of the month after today.

 


Here we go again

July 21st, 2014 at 10:34 am by under Weather
Climate Prediction Center Outlook July 26th-August 2nd

Climate Prediction Center Outlook for temperatures

This is beginning to look like a repeat of the pattern we just experienced. The new Climate Prediction Center Outlook which features temperatures through the end of the month has below average temperatures likely. Does this pattern seem familiar to you? It should because this is exactly what happened last week.

In looking at the medium range forecast models I am in complete agreement with this forecast through the beginning of August. In fact, I really don’t see August type temperatures until after the second of the month.

A cold front coming in over the weekend will take us back down in the 70s and it seems like we will see below average temperatures much of next week and through the weekend as well.

 


Storm chasers

July 18th, 2014 at 11:23 am by under Weather

One of the big topics of discussion lately has been storm chasers. There have been some terrible and tragic consequences due to chasing tornadoes with a couple of veteran storm chasers who knew what they were doing being killed last year. The above video shows exactly what a storm chaser should not do.  In fact, here’s a link to a blog site that further explores and explains current issues surrounding the practice of storm chasing.

 


Warmest year on record for planet

July 17th, 2014 at 11:10 am by under Weather
2013 among 6 warmest years on record (NOAA, AMS)

2013 among 6 warmest years on record (NOAA, AMS)

Even though Fort Wayne had record snowfall and some record cold temperatures over 2013 new data begin released by the American Meteorological Society and NOAA suggests that this last year was the warmest in recorded weather history.

Scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., served as the lead editors of the report, which was compiled by 425 scientists from 57 countries around the world (highlights, visuals, full report). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on air, land, sea, and ice.

 

 


New additon to Doppler radar

July 16th, 2014 at 8:54 am by under Weather
New upgrade to National Weather Service Doppler Radar

New upgrade to National Weather Service Doppler Radar

An upgrade to the National Weather Service Doppler radar is being installed today. New features will be available that will detect short lived tornadoes and more importantly it will help meteorologists focus on tornado formation which will ultimately increase warning times.


Not much rain added to the area yesterday

July 15th, 2014 at 11:00 am by under Weather
Cocorahs reports from 7/14

Cocorahs reports from 7/14

Legend of rainfall amounts

Legend of rainfall amounts

These are the observations taken by amateur observers all over the state called CoCoRahs.  (Community, Collaborative, Rain, Hail and Snow Network). As you can see we only received .15″ of an inch at most in areas around northeastern Indiana as the showers and storms fell apart before reaching the region.  There were a couple of areas north of Fort Wayne that had up to .30″.


Our entire area now under severe weather threat

July 14th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under Weather

 

Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk Area (NWS)

Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk Area (NWS)

Our entire area has been added to the Storm Prediction Center’s Slight Risk for severe storms.

Storm Risk Assesment

Storm Risk Assessment

The biggest threat will be for gusty thunderstorm winds of over 60 mph. There is also a small risk for large hail, but the primary risk is for gusty winds this afternoon. A powerful cold front will move through our area late this afternoon and this evening producing thunderstorms and some of these gusty winds. Best timing of these thunderstorms are from about 6 pm to 8 pm tonight.


We could really use the rain

July 14th, 2014 at 8:13 am by under Weather
July Rainfall from NWS reporting site Fort Wayne Airport

July Rainfall from NWS reporting site Fort Wayne Airport

I don’t think anyone would argue with the fact that it has been a terrific growing season so far, with plenty of sunshine and just about the right about of rainfall. June wrapped up with 5.81″ that’s about 1.65″ above normal. So it doesn’t take much to deduct we are also well ahead on rainfall totals for the summer months going into this week with 6.59″. That’s still about .63″ ahead of we would be in a typical summer at this time. However, what is troubling is that so far we’ve had .78″ for the month of July. We usually get about 4.24″ so that’s just over an inch a week and we don’t even have that for the first two weeks of the month.

It’s certainly nothing to be alarmed about yet but when you figure we have no rain chances for the next 6 days that would take us to July 20th. The only way to make things up would be to have a very wet end of July.