March 10th, 2014 at 11:18 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Snow fall estimates through Wednesday PM
On Friday it looked as if the forecast models were taking this system a little farther south with most of the energy there. There were a lot of inconsistencies in place. Now it seems most of those inconsistencies have been solved and we are seeing the heaviest snowfall from Fort Wayne and to the north. Snowfall amounts are anywhere from almost 4″ to just over 7″ and we will get get more clarity as we see this system make landfall and progress a little toward our area.
Futurecast has a mix of rain and snow early Wednesday morning
Futurecast has this beginning as a rain/snow mix at 2am
Changing to all snow by 6am Wednesday Morning
Changing to all snow by 6am with the heaviest snowfall expected to be from around 8am through 2pm Wednesday.
Ending with flurries by midnight
It should taper to flurries by late afternoon and evening. It will leave some colder air behind it with highs back in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday.
March 7th, 2014 at 11:26 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
We, like everyone else, have NOT enjoyed the harsh winter that has plagued our area. So, our production and sign team decided to deal with this winter with a little humor for everyone to enjoy. (Pierceton, IN)
So what is it with all the snow talk? Well, right now that’s all it is. Let’s first talk about this weekend. Snow will move in late Saturday afternoon, right now it doesn’t look like this will really be significant as 1. The surface temperatures will be above freezing at the beginning of the event and 2. Very limited amount of moisture to work with. So I’m left to a forecast of less than an inch. Most likely about .50″ to .75″.
Now on to the talk about a ‘big’ snow event Wednesday of next week. You probably have heard that we could see a large amount of snow. Well, all I’d say here is “hold on a minute”. There are still some inconsistencies and uncertainties that we need to deal with. The first is that two of the three ‘medium range’ models are taking the energy of this system south while one of them has the edge of the heaviest snowfall across Fort Wayne with several inches possible. While I do believe that this will be a significant weather system across much of the Midwest it is because of these inconsistencies that I am not really to commit yet for our area.
Could it happen for our area as last nights 0Z European solution is forecasting? You bet, but as a meteorologist I have to look at all of the solutions and come up with a consensus of what can and will happen. I believe this weekend we will have a much more clear solution for this snow system and what to expect mid week next week. So as they say in our business, “stay tuned”.
March 6th, 2014 at 11:31 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
NASA visualization of El Niño in the fall of 2009 – with telltale warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific, as indicated by yellow and orange shades. (NASA)
In a bulletin released this morning NOAA scientists are predicting a 50% chance that El Niño will develop during the spring months of 2014. What does this mean for us? Usually it will mean a drier than average winter and temperatures around average to sometimes well above average. Here’s more on the general impacts that scientists have predicted with a possible El Niño.
March 5th, 2014 at 11:29 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
The inclination and angle of the sun depicted around the world (NOAA graphic)
As March comes in with temperatures nearly 25 degrees below normal the question arises, how do we know that it will get warmer? Will there even be a spring or summer this year? To answer this question we need to go back to how the sun heats are hemisphere and the length of daylight that the spring and summer promise. Check out the graphic above and this website for more explanation.
March 4th, 2014 at 11:35 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
11am Temperatures 3/4/2014
As I mentioned in my blog post yesterday I talked about how we most likely would tie our record for the coldest maximum temperature in recorded history with a temperature of 14°. That actually happened yesterday afternoon. While today is not as cold I am noting a pattern that even the untrained weather eye can pick out on this ‘isotherm” graphic.
First you will notice that Minneapolis and Omaha are coming in considerably warmer than yesterday.
The other thing that sticks out to me on this graphic is that the pink color which is used to indicate bitter cold is retreating almost north of the US border. This does show at least a temporary reprieve from the bitter arctic air.
Although it won’t be a picnic the next couple of days we will see highs in the 20s. That’s still nearly 20° below normal.
March 3rd, 2014 at 11:42 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Temperatures at 11am on March 3, 2014
So just how cold is it? Well lets throw some numbers around here. If we only reach 14° as we are forecasting that would tie a record for the lowest maximum temperature ever recorded on this date. In fact, the last time this happened was back in 1943.
Here’s another unbelievable statistic our 30-year-average temperatures for this date is 42°. So we are almost 30° off our average temperature.
So now the question is how long can we continue this trend. Logic tells us that a number of factors will begin to modify this unprecedented cold. One is that the regions where this cold air is produced are beginning to see sunlight so that will begin to modify these arctic air masses before they ever arrive. The other mitigating factor are the minutes of sunlight are increasing rapidly so it’s difficult to get this kind of cold to continue.
The last factor is what is called the angle of inclination. This refers to the sun’s angle and this time of year it is actually producing more warmth because of it’s angle than in the winter months.
February 27th, 2014 at 11:28 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Weekend storm will bring heavier snow south of Fort Wayne
The latest runs of the forecast models have shifted most of the heavier snow south although one forecast model is still holding on to heavy snow for our area. The European solution still has about .82″ and at a 10:1 ratio that would be just over 8″ of snowfall. However, the other two models that I’m looking at have been consistent in shifting the main energy south with much lighter snowfall amounts. The GFS or American solution had been the wettest model and snow is splitting the energy into two pieces bringing in about an inch on Sunday afternoon and another 3 to 4″ in on Monday. The other solution called the NAM is bringing in about 2.5″ of snowfall Sunday and that’s it.
Right now my tendency would be lean toward the consistency of the other two forecast models since the data they have produced is more current and the next run of the European won’t be until tonight. I’m thinking that will be fall in line with these other two solutions.
Harken back to what I was saying just 3 days ago. The one thing I can tell you about systems is that they can and will change. There will be more changes so stayed tuned for those as well and we will continue tracking them for you.
February 26th, 2014 at 12:33 pm by Greg Shoup under Weather
Snow and ice may be a problem Saturday
Here is the latest on the winter storm possibly headed our way Saturday late and Sunday. The system seems to be veering a little farther north in the latest couple of runs but I will tell you that moisture output is almost at about half of what it was yesterday.
We’re now seeing about .62″ (6″ of snow) on one model and .32″ (just over 3″ of snow) on another. The biggest problem looks to be ice and where that will set up south of Fort Wayne.
We still have a few more days to go and this storm system is not even on the west coast yet, so it will change course several times.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:48 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
Sunday snowfall map
It seems common place this winter. The forecast models that we look at in the office hint at a winter storm and the internet/Social Media is blazing with gossip about the upcoming storm. Here are my thoughts:
Keep in mind that this storm system is still out in the ocean and hasn’t even made landfall yet so to put a lot of weight on a forecast this far in advance is a bit speculative. But since I want to get the correct information out let’s talk about some specifics.
The way things are lined up right now we would see the sleet/ice/snow line just south of Fort Wayne. Usually the heaviest snowfall is just north of this line. The storm is tracking most of the heavier precipitation just south but still have about an inch of moisture possible across our area.
This could be lots of snow or ice depending on the track of the storm. The last few model runs have taken it farther north but we are seeing some consistency in the fact that it would place the rain snow line about 50 miles south of Fort Wayne. Like I said this could change as the low moves closer, even a little wobble could effect the outcome of this storm.
Needless to say we have several forecast discussions each day here at the weather center and we will continue to track this system and give you accurate and concise assessments of what we think will occur.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:12 am by Greg Shoup under Weather
The Arctic Oscillation is the bigger factor behind the polar vortex
It’s coming again. Turn on your TV or listen to the radio and the news person is talking about the dreaded polar vortex. I had an earlier post when this first came out about most have incorrectly used the term. Instead of going on another rant about that let’s look at the origins of the polar vortex. How does it form, and as they say what is the bigger picture behind this weather phenomena?
Here is an article to clear up this misunderstanding about this over used term.