Greg Shoup

Longer term pattern will stay cooler

September 30th, 2014 at 11:05 am by under Weather

As we are experiencing some doses of fall cool weather today and tomorrow it looks like the longer term forecast is favoring colder than average temperatures through the 9th of October. In fact the new 6 to 10 day outlook as temperatures well below average from October 5th through the 9th and precipitation near average through this time period. So get out the long sleeves we will be seeing cooler than average weather at least to begin October.

 


September still below average

September 26th, 2014 at 11:41 am by under Weather
Our average high for the last 25 days puts up at the 11th coolest on record. while our average low of 49 puts Fort Wayne at the 4th coolest low average temperatures during September

Our average high for the last 25 days puts up at the 11th coolest on record. while our average low of 49 puts Fort Wayne at the 4th coolest low average temperatures during September

While we have experienced some very nice days as of late we are still a bit behind the averages for September. This will obviously go up over the next few days but the last 25 days overall have been very cool with our average temperature the 11th coolest since weather has been recorded here and the average low of 49 the 4th coolest on record. If you thought we had a cool last three months you would have been correct as well. In fact, our average temperature of 78.7 degrees is 2.9 degrees below average and ties for the 8th coolest for this 3 month period.

So far this month we’ve had 5 days of 80 degree or higher days and 1 day which reached 90.

There have been 11 days of 70 degree plus days and 7 days of 60 degree plus. Meanwhile, there were 2 days in the 50s.

That adds up to 15 days of below average temperatures while 10 days were above average.

Last September had 11 days of 80 plus temperatures, where 2 days reached 95 and one day reached 90. 13 days had 70 degree or better temperatures while 6 days had 60 degree or better high temperatures.

So even though it has seemed very warm lately, in reality it’s been a very cool month so far.

 

 


Transition to fall pattern next week

September 25th, 2014 at 11:38 am by under Weather

It’s hard to imagine that as we get into October our weather pattern will change drastically, especially after all of these nice days we’ve been experiencing. But don’t be lulled into thinking this weather will stick around past next week because by the end of the week we could be in for a significant change.

Next week will see a vigorous autumn weather system move through the lower 48 which will produce drastic changes. We will see the summer like jet stream which as persisted in giving most of the U.S. very mild and above average weather be forced to buckle and allow much cooler air across a vast majority of the states. This pattern could also bring some heavier rainfall to the area as the 8 to 14 outlook suggests.


Climate change

September 24th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under Weather

global climate

Anytime anyone brings up those two words a political firestorm begins with strong opinions on both sides ignited and the problem becomes are we really all on the same page and talking about the same thing? I bring this topic up because of the recent United Nations Summit on ‘Climate Change’.  While I believe it’s healthy to have a discussion about this I believe sometimes we get too tied up in the human side of things and not the science.

While there seems to be overwhelming evidence that the global temperatures have gone up at an alarming rate there are a number of variables that may be pushing these temperatures up. One of course and the main focus on any political summit would be the human aspect which is plays into this process. While that is very much an issue and while humans do contribute a great deal to this rapid warm up there are also other climate factors that scientists are studying.

One of these factors is called natural variability. Climate scientists look at climate change over thousands of years. This variability can occur over time because of interaction between the atmosphere, land and ocean. Take a look at the changes that have occurred in Vostok, Antarctica.

Alaska change

These changes have taken place over a 420,000 year period near Antarctica. You can see that natural variability does play a large role in climate change.

However, I believe what scientists are looking at now is the rapid acceleration of these climate change events. Are humans to blame 100% on this issue? They certainly may be creating a long lasting impact on changes occurring on our earth and it is good to have these discussions about the world we live in.


Fall may be more like summer

September 22nd, 2014 at 10:38 am by under Weather
Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day forecast for September 27 through October 1

Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day forecast for September 27 through October 1

Just a couple of weeks ago we were showing you graphics that would put temperatures will below normal, now as astronomical fall begins it sure looks like tides have turned. Now we are seeing where the new Climate Prediction Center Forecast has temperatures well above the average. This makes sense as we are headed toward an above average siege of weather especially toward the end of our work week and through the weekend. This outlook extends this period through the end of the month and the beginning of September.


Space RADAR

September 19th, 2014 at 11:31 am by under Weather
A new tool for tracking hurricanes and tropical storms, ISS-RapidScat is the first instrument specifically created to watch Earth from the International Space Station.

A new tool for tracking hurricanes and tropical storms, ISS-RapidScat is the first instrument specifically created to watch Earth from the International Space Station.

Imagine a radar that could measure ocean winds, track hurricanes and help scientists track 15 year climate records of events. The most exciting part of this radar called RadScat is that it will be mounted on the International Space Station and help scientists with real time information during tropical ocean events. Even though NASA doesn’t fly shuttles into space anymore they are able to help NOAA scientists that measure ocean climate and temperature in an innovative way

 


A dipping and diving jet stream still causing cold across much of the U.S.

September 18th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under Weather

The extreme cold that enveloped much of North America this year is being caused by a diving jet stream. It’s not so unusual for troughs of low pressure to move across the U.S. or high pressure to push the jet stream north like what’s happening right now across the western U.S. causing record heat. What is unusual is that this situation has gone on for months on end. This is what has scientists collectively scratching their  heads. According to an article published by NOAA this climate pattern may have to do with a number of issues related to atmosphere.

“...researchers are investigating a few hypotheses—Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies, climate change, natural atmospheric dynamics—but there are no firm answers yet.  Given the exceptionally long stretch of time we are talking about with the 2014 event, Masters thinks it’s probably multiple influences acting over different time scales, some long-term and some, like Typhoon Neoguri in the Pacific in July, short-term.”


Cooling trend will continue

September 17th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather

If you have been enjoying these late October type temperatures then you will really like the extended forecast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook has temperatures staying below average through the 22nd of the month. What is interesting about this forecast graphic is that it also is building the heat across the pacific northwest and the northern Rockies. These two areas are really not known for their autumn heat waves. Many times when you experience one extreme in one part of the country you have another extreme in the opposite side of the country. This is specifically true here as we are seeing temperatures that are record setting and extremely warm across the western U.S. and very cool in much of the Midwest and Great Lakes.


A tropical weekend forecast

September 16th, 2014 at 8:56 am by under Weather
Tropical remnants of Odlie are headed across old Mexico and may move toward our area over the weekend

Tropical remnants of Odlile are headed across old Mexico and may move toward our area over the weekend

Some of our forecast solutions are not portraying what could be a wet Sunday forecast. The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Odile could get caught up in a Pacific weather system which will move across the country and may move toward our area by this weekend. This would mean a warm and a very wet forecast. High temperatures could be close to 80 both Saturday and Sunday with some heavy rainfall possible with this scenario Sunday.


Monday rain update

September 15th, 2014 at 10:02 am by under Weather

Showers have already been moving through the area this morning and will continue into this afternoon and evening. We are not expecting to see any severe weather we are going to see widespread showers through early this evening. This weak weather system will also be enough to keep temperatures down into the upper 60s through Wednesday.