Greg Shoup

More on Sunday snow

February 27th, 2015 at 9:00 am by under Weather
Snowfall estimates from Futurecast for snowfall Sunday

Snowfall estimates from Futurecast for snowfall Sunday

So far snowfall estimates have fluctuated with different mathematical outputs. The new GFS has about 5.6″ of snowfall. The NAM output coming in at about 3.6″. And interestingly enough the ECMWF output has about 5.6″. That would be just under the Winter Storm Warning criteria but it will be quite close. The other thing that will be close is the rain snow line. Right now Futurecast has the rain/snow line south of Portland which would still put most of our area in 3 to 5 inch range of snowfall for Sunday.

We will keep you up to date with the latest on changes that come along with this forecast but I’m impressed we are finally seeing some consistency with these mathematical outputs.


Cold air moving in redux

February 26th, 2015 at 12:07 pm by under Weather
12 pm temperatures 2/26/2015

12 pm temperatures 2/26/2015

Take a look at the northwest part of this map. We are seeing very cold air rebuilding and it will move in later today. Minneapolis had a temperature of 5 at noon. That’s what we have to look forward to.

Snowfall through Thursday morning

Snowfall through Thursday morning

Here are snowfall totals from Thursday morning. Most places in NE Indiana received well under 1″


Records and more

February 24th, 2015 at 8:07 am by under Weather
Yesterdays record cold has now moved this month up to 4th place overall for the coldest average temperatures. (Data provided by NWS IWX)

Yesterdays record cold has now moved this month up to 4th place overall for the coldest average temperatures. (Data provided by NWS IWX)

The cold continues to set records and the cold from the last two days has already moved the average temperature for the month down to 16.5°. That moves the area in the 4th place overall standing for coldest average temperatures for the month of February.

Record low set at 5 am February 24th at -6

Record low set at 5 am February 24th at -6

Another record low was set this morning. -6° breaks a one-hundred fifteen year old record!

 


One of the coldest on record

February 23rd, 2015 at 11:37 am by under Weather
Data provided by NWS Northern Indiana

Data provided by NWS Northern Indiana

If you have been thinking that this one the coldest Februaries you can remember, your memory is serving you well. As of the 22nd, this is the 5th coldest February on record, if you calculate the average monthly temperature. If this trend continues, and we expect it will through the end of the month, then this may end up moving up to the third spot as the coldest February since 1979.


Latest on the weekend snowfall forecast

February 20th, 2015 at 11:45 am by under Weather
SREF Pillars forecast product (NWS)

SREF Pillars forecast product (NWS)

Futurecast has heavier snowfall through the AM hours of Saturday

Futurecast has heavier snowfall through the AM hours of Saturday

The latest model data is coming in a little better than earlier this week. Although it won’t be anything like the early February snow we saw it will be a quick heavy snow for the area. Futurecast has it in with heavy snowfall from about 4 am through 11 am Saturday morning. Some of the other data I look at is also falling in line. An experimental product above shows what we call “plumes” and usually is an accurate depiction of an event. It is now coming in much higher than just yesterday with a solid 4″ average for FWA. Precipitation from another Hi-Res model coming in about 4″ . 2 to 4 inches is a good bet but we could easily bump that up another inch to include some 5 inch totals and even some isolated spots with up to six inches.


Deep freeze and weekend storm

February 19th, 2015 at 10:25 am by under Weather

 

The frigid conditions may be near record setting  in a number of ways. As Nicholas mentioned in the previous post a record for the lowest maximum temperature will most likely be set today with a high in the single digits. The record set back int 1936 was 8°.

The low temperature this morning did not set a record but it was not that far off. We had a low of -3° and the record set back in 1978 was -7°.

Tomorrow will be very close to at least tying a record low for February 20th. The record low set in 1904 and 1978 was -7° and the forecast low is -7°. One thing to note about our February 20th Friday forecast is that the winds should at least be a little lighter during the morning.

The Futurecast snap shot from Saturday night has a wintery mix of precipitation

The Futurecast snap shot from Saturday night has a wintery mix of precipitation

The weekend is no less complicated than yesterday. We do have a wide variance in our forecast model data. However, there is beginning to be a consensus on the fact that precipitation will be sharpy ‘cut off’ between rain/sleet and snowfall. Right now we are looking at mostly sleet and rain with snowfall to the north. This mixed area keeps getting pushed farther and farther north each model run which has been an on going trend going back to the February 1st storm which dumped all the snow across the region.

If you remember Fort Wayne was the ‘cut off’ point for the heaviest snowfall where areas south saw snow but much less snow because of above freezing temperatures during the on-set of the storm.

This storm is a little different then the February 1st storm in that right now we are seeing a lot of moisture getting cut off before it even gets here and the precipitation that falls is diluted even more because it mixes with sleet and rain to the south.

There is still a lot of time and complications with this system and certainly no going consensus between solutions which makes it much more difficult for your meteorologists to reconcile a forecast with all the data going in different directions and wide spanning disparities between these mathematical solutions so far.

This will come down to the wire unfortunately and will probably be a pretty messy winter storm across much of the state.

 


Weekend snow latest thinking

February 18th, 2015 at 9:55 am by under Weather

New forecast computer model data in over the last 24 hours suggests another shift from yesterday. About 200 to 300 miles north of the point the GFS storm track was at yesterday. This causes more question than answers for me. Will this track shift again over the next 24 hours? Probably not because the cut off for the colder air is just north of our region on Saturday. So do I believe that this pattern is now locked in place for the weekend? I believe it only adds more uncertainty to the solution. Especially when you add the fact that the run six hours later (6z) has the track shifted south again. While the 6z data is sometimes called “off hour” data it does validate my point that there is model run to run inconsistency, at least with the GFS or American model.

The ECMWF or European forecast computer model from the same period has the track farther north as well.

Both of the northern scenarios would begin the precipitation as rain and change to snow. This would cut down drastically on the moisture content for snow with this storm.

If the two northerly tracking solutions are valid and do ‘pan out’ as accurate we may be looking at a very heavy snowfall close to what we recently saw just a couple of weeks ago.

However, if the ‘off hour’ data is a sign of things to come the model data will continue to force this energy south with the expansion of a polar ridge to the north which would simply bring colder air in to the Great Lakes Region.


Weekend storm track

February 17th, 2015 at 8:19 am by under Weather

This weekend may be a story of two distinctly different storm tracks. Unfortunately, this is what we have to deal with in the weather office all too often. Two distinctively different tracks for upcoming storm systems.

The GFS or commonly called the ‘American’ model takes the storm track farther south which is what I am favoring right now.

The ECMWF or “European” takes the storm track a couple hundred miles north. This could make a big difference for us. It would mean the difference between seeing very little snow or maybe several inches.

Here’s why I favor the GFS track right now. Run to run it has been the more dependable of late. I also see what the current system and storm track is doing. One more issue I see is that the polar air we will see the rest of the work week will push that storm track farther south. The question is with the influx of warmer air how much farther will it get pushed north? The answer I believe is that the latest runs of both the GFS and the Euro have brought the colder air in Sunday instead of Monday as they had previously forecast. This in my mind keeps the track farther south and limits the amount of warm air needed to bring that track farther north.

Stay tuned…As always we will be in a very interesting place this weekend and pity the folks down south as either way they are going to get blasted by the second winter storm in less than a week.

 


Even colder blast this weekend

February 13th, 2015 at 11:53 am by under Weather

As another arctic weather system moves in Saturday morning you can expect some snowfall accumulation with most areas getting about an inch of snowfall and some areas up to 2″ away from Lake Michigan. Areas close to Lake Michigan can expect even more snowfall with lake enhanced snowfall with up to 3 to 6 inches expected.

Behind the snowfall will be the coldest air we’ve seen in a while as low temperatures fall below zero by Sunday morning and highs will only be slightly above zero.


Exciting news about space weather exploration

February 12th, 2015 at 11:06 am by under Weather

The DSCOVR Climate Observatory has launched and will embark on an exciting mission to explore solar weather. Above you can check out the new instruments on board which will measure solar wind and magnetic energy and intensity. Here are several resources so you can read more on this exciting launch and what it means to the evolution of our space weather knowledge.