The forecast continues to have more of what we like to see, a consensus or agreement. Both ‘medium range forecast models’ are bringing anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of snow north on Saturday morning and afternoon. This scenario would have the heaviest snowfall south of Fort Wayne but still a decent snowfall across the entire northern tier of the state. The low is still tracking south but just a couple hundred miles to the north and we could be looking at even more snow Saturday.
The cold weather will continue through the rest of the work week but the most interesting event may be coming this week. It’s certainly not what I would call a ‘slam dunk’ forecast wise but it’s something that I begin to get concerned about when I see it. One of our forecast ‘solutions’ that we use shows a system which hooks moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
These kind of storms are usually heavy snow makers and can cause some serious problems. That said, this is not by any means a forecast which is 100% certain, so we will continue watching and tracking it.
This is what Futurecast predicts our radar will look like in just a couple of hours with light snow basically cutting off right around the Fort Wayne area. The heaviest snowfall will continue to be south of Fort Wayne as we’ve been forecasting pretty consistently over the past couple of days.
The snow begins to taper off early in the evening and ends by mid evening.
I believe this is the best forecast I’ve seen on this particular model solution for our area as it has 1 to 3″ the farther south you travel. The biggest snows will be around Muncie to Indianapolis and south.
Here is the latest snowfall data we have into the weather center which shows the snowfall for Friday to still be mainly south of Fort Wayne. It does bring a little more moisture up and we are really dealing with the northern fringe of the moisture plume here. So 1 to 2 inches will be common just south from Huntington to Van Wert with the highest totals around Portland with around 4 inches.
Here is a depiction of what radar should look like around Noon on Friday as this wave moves through. We should see a brief but heavy snowfall which could make for a dangerous afternoon south of Fort Wayne.
The biggest question in the weather center as of late is #1. Are we going to get snow and #2 How much will we get? I will tell you there is quite a bit of uncertainty about both of these questions right now. Our ‘in-house’ model which is derived off what is called the NAM solution does show measurable snowfall south of Fort Wayne Friday afternoon and ending Friday evening.
Snowfall amounts are very minimal around the Fort Wayne area and north as this is a southern based system.
However, the snowfall accumulation graphic does show about 1″ just south of Fort Wayne and up to 3″ in the Portland, (Jay County) area.
The European solution is bringing heavier snowfall across the area while the American or GFS solution is bringing almost nothing to the region.
Right now the thought is since there is no consensus it seems like the lower amounts hold more weight as far as trustworthiness right now. The ‘far out’ solutions seem to be just that. Really far off track.
Remember this is one model solution and this solution is not favored by the two other models we are using for this day but it does show a heavy snow band across Indianapolis through Friday with a developing system. This solution is not favored by the two other solutions of choice this day so we will have to see how this system develops.
The purple color indicates Winter Weather Advisories while the pink indicates winter storm warnings for a large portion of the U.S through Wednesday.
This storm will spread cold air across the region through the weekend with another shot of cold air coming in Monday into Tuesday of next week.
One look at the 7 day forecast and you may want to ‘run for the hills’. You don’t know what to wear and you’ll have to keep two sets of clothes out again. One of the things we look for when for forecasting are huge changes. We try to see if there is consensus with mathematical solutions or if one of them is so ‘out to lunch’ that it cannot be reliable. Right now we see to have consensus on an arctic wave of cold air coming in late this week and weekend.
Take a look toward the northern Rockies as the cold air begins to spill in from the north. Some of these blue lines represent -20 Celsius or -4 Fahrenheit. That’s pretty cold for early December. This cold air begins to build east but does moderate as it heads east. We still believe temperatures will be in the 20s this weekend.
You can see that we will see heavy snowfall to the northern Rockies with this upcoming storm. How does that translate for our area? Right now I don’t believe the heaviest snow will be across the Great Lakes, although we may see heavy snowfall just west of Indiana. That’s how the solutions are looking right now. As the event on Friday starts to unfold we may be changing that forecast.
Some huge snow totals are coming in from yesterday’s lake effect snowfall. Many folks will be having a white Thanksgiving.
...LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AS OF 8 AM EST NOVEMBER 28 2013... ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT INDIANA ...ELKHART COUNTY... NAPPANEE 2.0 624 PM 11/27 ...LA PORTE COUNTY... FISH LAKE 5.0 115 PM 11/27 ...MARSHALL COUNTY... PLYMOUTH 6.5 700 AM 11/28 STORM TOTAL 1 WSW TYNER 6.0 705 AM 11/27 6 NW PLYMOUTH 5.3 600 AM 11/27 ...ST. JOSEPH COUNTY... 1 NNE GEORGETOWN 12.5 252 PM 11/27 2 SE GEORGETOWN 9.0 323 PM 11/27 2 NE SOUTH BEND 8.5 600 PM 11/27 2 ENE GEORGETOWN 8.3 700 AM 11/28 STORM TOTAL 3 W GRANGER 8.3 800 AM 11/28 STORM TOTAL ARGOS 8.0 158 PM 11/27 1 E MISHAWAKA 8.0 518 PM 11/27 GEORGETOWN 8.0 220 PM 11/27 STORM TOTAL 1 SE GEORGETOWN 7.0 430 PM 11/27 4 NW SOUTH BEND 6.7 700 AM 11/28 NWS OFFICIAL OBS 3 NNE LYDICK 6.5 200 PM 11/27 STORM TOTAL 3 N TEEGARDEN 6.3 700 AM 11/28 STORM TOTAL WALKERTON 6.0 1100 AM 11/27 STORM TOTAL 6 SE MISHAWAKA 5.5 800 AM 11/28 STORM TOTAL 3 NW SOUTH BEND 5.0 130 PM 11/27 1 N SOUTH BEND 4.7 1250 PM 11/27 3 SW JIMTOWN 4.4 837 PM 11/27 1 S GRANGER 4.0 725 PM 11/27 MICHIGAN ...BERRIEN COUNTY... COLOMA 16.0 235 PM 11/27 FROM WNDU FACEBOOK PAGE 4 SSE SPINKS CORNERS 15.0 515 PM 11/27 1 ESE BUCHANAN 12.2 300 PM 11/27 BERRIEN CENTER 12.0 334 PM 11/27 STORM TOTAL SODUS 12.0 500 PM 11/27 BERRIEN SPRINGS 9.0 200 PM 11/27 STORM TOTAL BENTON HARBOR 7.0 213 PM 11/27
Heavy snowfall is continuing to blanket the northwestern part of the state. During the winter we call this area the lake effect snow belt and you can see why today.
It looks like this heavy snowfall continues through late this afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish this evening and by Thursday they will shift to the southwest and that will shut down the ‘lake effect snow machine’, but not before almost a foot of snow falls close to Lake Michigan.
As we update the travel weather picture we are already seeing heavy snowfall for eastern Ohio down across portions of Kentucky, West Virgina and Tennessee.
Futurecast is forecasting heavy snowfall across this entire area through Wednesday afternoon and evening with heavy rain across the southeastern U.S.
Closer to home the highest impacted area will be the lake effect snowfall areas next to Lake Michigan. Places light LaPorte could see 10 to maybe 12 inches of heavy snowfall with southern areas getting 4 to 8 inches in this watch area.