It’s not the normal way you’d think it should happen. Usually when weather people talk about a system moving in this time of year from the west or northwest they are referring to cold air. This time it’s quite the opposite situation. You see, cold air was already in place and has been sitting here because of arctic high pressure all week. What this pacific weather system actually accomplished was to displace the colder air mass and replace it with more moderate warm air. This system will be responsible for beginning our weekend and early next week warm up.
Flooding is an issue we are all too familiar with in our region with three rivers that traverse our area. One of the problems with forecasting flood waters is that very little has been done to make forecasts more timely and reliable. That is until recently. The University of Iowa has introduced a new flooding model system that is many strides ahead ofthe National Weather Service is doing. In fact, you could say it is decades ahead of what the NWS is able to do.
Here is more on this new model and what Weather Service officials are saying about it.
This warming trend that we are expecting this weekend may last a little longer, maybe moving into the end of the month. The new Climate Prediction Center Outlook for 8 to 14 days has temperatures slightly above average from October 29th-November 4th and precipitation well above average through the same period, so it may be a wet end of the month and starting of November as well.
As our climate changes and transitions to what is now a warmer earth there will be some side effects that may cause some huge global issues. One of them is California. These latest satellite photos show that the state is getting very dry. Read more about that here.
They had better think of a better alternative like desalination soon or there might not be any water for residents there to use.
You may be wondering what is happening outside today. Because the ‘weather people’ said the front moved through yesterday, so why is it cloudy with light rain falling today? This pattern is called a closed or cut off low in meteorological circles. It is a contained weather system with winds circulating around and is usually in what meteorologists would define as an upper level weather system because it resides about 15,000 feet above the ground. These types of weather systems can sometimes stay in an area for 6 to 8 days since the low is not connected to the upper level wind flow of the jet stream. It usually forms around a ‘cool pool’ of air and it can persist until that pool of air finally warms or another weather disturbance pushes it out of the way.
We will experience the latter of the two ‘means to an end’ here. A strong high pressure area from the north will dislodge this system by late Thursday and Friday. These types of weather phenomena are most common across the Great Lakes and Southwestern United States.
It will be a much different forecast after today as an upper level low moves across the area. An upper level low pressure center will almost anchor itself over our area. This kind of pattern is very slow to move. There are virtually no winds to move it anywhere and as a result it remains cut off front the main jet stream flow. This will mean showers and cooler temperatures will persist for at least 36 hours before higher pressure finally moves it east.
Here is the latest on showers and storms which will be moving across our area over the next 24 hours. For the afternoon and evening hours of Monday the Day One Severe Weather Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center has put the slight risk just south of the WANE coverage area. Right now it looks like the dynamics in place will cause heavy rainfall with some gusty winds over the next 24 hours up to about 25 mph. But at this time we are not expected to see severe weather across our area.
Now on to the next area of concern and that is heavy rainfall. Futurecast has heavy rain moving into our area between 5 and 6 am and exiting during the early afternoon. Rainfall amounts could be heavy in local areas as Futurecast is putting up to 2″ across some areas through Tuesday evening.
This weather system will also bring cooler air to the region by Wednesday. The other issue Wednesday will be lingering low pressure which will cause clouds and light showers through the day and could linger into Thursday as the stubborn low will move very slowly to the east.
Very cool sequence from beginning to ‘totality’ which occurred at 6:25 am.
Skies will clear enough for a viewing of a very colorful eclipse just before sunrise which occurs at 7:45 am on October 8th. The colorful orb will be barely visible on the horizon because of its proximity to the time of the sunrise. The giant red illumination or what is commonly called a ‘blood moon’ is actually caused because we are looking through the ozone with dust and pollution which make the moon appear red.
According to NASA Atmospheric scientist Richard Keen of the University of Colorado you may be able to catch a turquoise coloring of the rim of the moon, “look during the first and last minutes of totality. The turquoise rim is best seen in binoculars or a small telescope.”
You can begin viewing the partial eclipse at 4:17 am and the full eclipse will be visible at 6:25 am and sunrise is at 7:45 am.