Hail reporting chart, courtesy the National Weather Service

So far, our spring has been very quiet with no severe weather, but we know this won’t last for ever.  While the weather is quiet, I though I bring up this hail chart for measuring hail stones.   First off, never use the term “marbles” to report hail.   Why you ask?  Have you played a game of marbles lately?   If you have, or even if you haven’t, marbles come in different sizes and therefor, are not a accurate way to report exact hail size.

If possible, try to use something that has a standard size, like a golf ball, a tennis ball, or a softball.  Above is a chart correlating hail size to an object and a known diameter.

If you thought Tuesday was warm in the Fort, how about those record high temperatures across parts of Iowa?   Sioux City Iowa landed a high temperature of 106°, which is surprising since they had some snow earlier this month.  Back here in Fort Wayne, our high was 85°, only 5° shy of the record of 90° set back in 1985.

Actually, our high of 85° Tuesday is fairly impressive since we started with a low of 48°.   That’s nearly a 40° rise in the daily temperature which is rare for this part of the county.  If you go back to Sunday morning and our low temperature of 36°, that is nearly a 50° change in temperatures in 72 hours.

The next 72 hours will not bring big swings like this, but more highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

If you missed us at the Walgreens at Jefferson and Getz in Fort Wayne today, you can join us from 4-7PM Tuesday at the Walgreens in Huntington for our 2nd weather radio programming event this week.  Even if you don’t need another weather radio, we can program one for you, or answer any weather questions you may have.   Maybe you have a weather enthusiast in the family and you just want to meet the weather team?  Well, come on down.

If you can’t make Huntington on Tuesday, we will also be in Angola on Wednesday, Van Wert on Thursday and back in Fort Wayne on Friday at the Kroger on Dupont.

I came across this article today, about a 60 year tornado low.  Here are the bullet points:

• The past 12 months have seen the fewest number of tornadoes since at least 1954
• The seven people killed from May 2012 to April 2013 are the fewest in a 12-month period since 1899-1900

So, does that mean our storm season will be as quiet?   Right now, there is no strong correlation that the pattern will stay quiet or act up, but hands down, don’t ever base your forecast on what has happened in the past.   Our weather pattern can change quickly, without out warning..   For example, remember our drought last summer?  We went from the worst drought every in 2012, to the 3rd wettest spring in 2013.

Here is where you can buy a weather radio and have it programmed

Our WANE TV Weather Radio Programming week starts on Monday, click here for the complete schedule to include other events in the South Bend area.

Here is the complete schedule and locations for our events in Northeastern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio:

Each event will run from 4PM to 7PM:

•             Monday, May 13th:  Fort Wayne Walgreens, 6202 W Jefferson Blvd, Fort Wayne, IN

•             Tuesday, May 14th: Huntington Walgreens, 1804 N Jefferson St, Huntington, IN

•             Wednesday, May 15th: Angola Walgreens, 2012 N Wayne St, Angola, IN

•             Thursday, May 16th: Van Wert Ohio at Rulers Foods: 1120 S Shannon St  Van Wert, OH

•             Friday, May 17th: Kroger in Fort Wayne, 601 E Dupont Rd, Fort Wayne, IN

So, what should you do if you don’t have a weather radio yet, but want one?  Just show up at any one of the events and weather radios will be available for purchase.

Even though rain is likely later tonight, the risk of severe weather is very low.  I am not trying to downplay tonight, I am just calling it how I see it and I don’t see the key ingredients for widespread severe weather.  If anything, an isolated severe storm is possible, but it would be on the lower end of the severe storm threat scale, only producing winds up to 55 mph and dime size hail.  The map above is the area that is outlooked for severe storms and the “Slight Risk” is outside of the WANE viewing area.

So, what are we missing, what are those key ingredients needed for the stronger storms?   First, there is limited instability and second, the jet stream winds are very weak.  Without these two key components, the updrafts of the cells are not very strong and don’t last very long, reducing the window for severe weather.

After a quiet week so far, get ready for some severe storms for Thursday, as early as the mid afternoon and as late as very early Friday morning.  The area that is under the risk of severe weather is highlighted in the map above.

So, what can we expect for severe weather?  On a scale of 1 to 10, we are are in the 2 to 3 range for severe threat.  I am not trying to down play the risk of severe weather, but the atmosphere may be missing some of the key ingredients for the stronger, more violent storms.  The biggest impact will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, but 1″ hail is possible.   There will actually be see some directional shear in the atmosphere, a basic ingredient for rotating storms, but with limited instability, the threat for tornadoes is very low.

So, what time can we expect these storms?  We could see storms as early as the afternoon, but I would expect the strongest storms with the heaviest rain to move into the area at some in the late evening, after 9PM.  If you look at the map above, our high resolution forecast model is saying about 11PM.

Expect the bulk of the rain to move out by daybreak Friday, but afternoon light shower may redevelop.

Severe Storm Risk Late Thursday

Even though we are not expecting severe storms tonight (not even any thunder), we may see some severe storms on Thursday.   On a scale of 1 to 10 for severe probability or risk it is really only about a 2, maybe a 3 at best.  The main risk would likely be some damaging winds, but small hail is also possible.

So, when will this happen?  This is all about the timing and position of an incoming cold front and how high the instability is ahead of the cold front.   As of now, I would look for severe weather anytime as early as the late afternoon and as late as very early Friday morning.

We are one week away from our WANE TV Weather Radio Programming week, click here for the complete schedule to include other events in the South Bend area.

Here is the complete schedule and locations for our events in Northeastern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio:

Each event will run from 4PM to 7PM:

•             Monday, May 13th:  Fort Wayne Walgreens, 6202 W Jefferson Blvd, Fort Wayne, IN

•             Tuesday, May 14th: Huntington Walgreens, 1804 N Jefferson St, Huntington, IN

•             Wednesday, May 15th: Angola Walgreens, 2012 N Wayne St, Angola, IN

•             Thursday, May 16th: Van Wert Ohio at Rulers Foods: 1120 S Shannon St  Van Wert, OH

•             Friday, May 17th: Kroger in Fort Wayne, 601 E Dupont Rd, Fort Wayne, IN

So, what should you do if you don’t have a weather radio yet, but want one?  Just show up at any one of the events and weather radios will be available for purchase.

Are you running the One America 500 Festival Mini Marathon Saturday?  If so, good luck!   I have no idea what kind of temperatures you like for running a half marathon, but I would have to guess that the majority of runners don’t want sunshine and 80s.   I have run 18 marathons and several dozen half marathons and this forecast would be great for me since I am a “hot baby.”  (I hate running in the heat.  Give me 45 degrees and light rain and I will run a PR.)  Probably the biggest impact will be the winds which may gust up to 25 mph at some point during the race.   Will it rain?   There is a 30% at the start and during the race, but the higher rain chances for Indy really come in during the late afternoon, well after the marathon is over.

Again and good luck, I hope you have a fun time.