Even though Monday was quiet and Tuesday is expected to be the same, don’t let that fool you. We are monitoring the risk of severe storms for Wednesday and as of now, the main risk appears to be damaging winds.
Now, here is the deal: It is still a little early to call the exact mode of the storms (single cell or multi-cell) or if there will be enough heat and humidity in place when the storms roll through (fuel for stronger cells), but….. everything I have looked at for Wednesday says the environment will be primed for some sort of severe weather in the area.
The map above is an outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, for a slight risk (area highlighted in yellow) of severe storms for our area and honestly, I would not be surprised to see this outlook upgraded to a “moderate” risk.
Again, the main risk is going to be damaging winds, but there will also be a risk of moderate sized hail and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
So, if it was going to be a significant wind event, what are we looking for? Here are some of the ingredients:
- 3KM Rear inflow jet
- Moderate to strong low level shear
- High CAPE
- Dry mid-levels to enhance evaporative cooling and the cold pool.
- A stationary front
When I look at the set up for Wednesday, I see many of these ingredients in place. The biggest wild card will be how much sunshine and heating we see in the afternoon between the morning rain and the storms late. The longer the break in between storms, the higher the risk and the higher the probability of severe weather.
Besides the risk of storms for Wednesday, we also need to address the “flooding risk.”
The map above is my total rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and somewhere in the 2″ band (area highlighted in light blue) there may be an area of rain over 3″. At this point, it is a little too early to locate the exact position of the heaviest rain, but I would not be surprised to see localized flash flooding early Thursday morning. Yes, the one spot in your neighborhood that always floods, may be under a flood risk for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
So, what can you do to stay weather aware?
- Sign up for our WANE text alerts.
- Monitor our WANE weather blog,Facebook page and Twitter Feed (@wanewx).
- Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has new batteries in it.
- Watch 1st News Wednesday Morning with Greg Shoup to get your updated forecast.
- Keep on eye on the weather map and crawl on WANE TV Wednesday afternoon and evening.