A severe t-storm watch has been issued for parts of Lake Country until Midnight (or the counties highlighted in pink above.)
Here is the technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 440 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 520...WW 521...
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
Area that next severe storm watch may be issued, courtesy the Storm Prediction Center.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued a “mesoscale discussion,” which means a watch may be coming soon for the area highlighted in blue above. As of this moment, they think there is a 40% chance that a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued. Click here for the discussion or just read below:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112021Z - 112215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI AND
INTO NRN IND AND OH WITH CU FIELDS INCREASING. GPS PWAT SENSORS SHOW
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED PLUME FROM
NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.60". MEANWHILE...A
MODIFIED 18Z DETROIT SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...WITH A MODESTLY LONG HODOGRAPH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
RECENTLY...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SLY ACROSS SERN LOWER
MI...ENHANCING A CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SWRN LOWER MI NEWD TOWARD LAKE
HURON AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA FOR INITIATION. STORMS COULD
THEN MATURE AND MOVE TOWARD THE DETROIT METRO AREA LATER TODAY WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
As a wave of colder air moves through the region tonight, it will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, tonight and even into tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a “Slight” risk for severe storms, which is highlighted in the map above with the yellow shading. So, what does this mean for you? Be on the lookout for scattered t-storms and some may be capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph. Because the winds in the atmosphere do not change direction from the surface to the jetstream, storms are not expected to rotate, therefore there is no tornado risk.
Here are a few more thoughts I have about this evening and tonight:
Storms are possible into the late afternoon, but they should be isolated.
Look for a line of storms mainly between 7-11PM.
Even though the biggest risk is damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail the size of quarters are possible.
Another line of storms is possible during the overnight, but I expect another line of storms to form Thursday morning.
This last line of storms may linger into early Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures may be tricking Thursday with the early afternoon warmer than the late afternoon as temperatures fall.
Get ready to break out the cool weather clothing as highs will only be in the 60s on Friday.
So far this year, the highest temperature for Fort Wayne has only been 92° and we have only hit the 90° mark 6 times. In all perspective, this has been a very cool summer, but Mother Nature is going to make up for it on Tuesday. Look for highs in mid 90s for Tuesday and officially, we are shooting for a high of 95°. Even though this will be the hottest day of the year so far, it will not be a record breaker for Tuesday, which is 97° set back in 1983. So, how much longer will this heat least?
Based on a 30 year average, we should expect average high temperatures this month to slowly drop through the lower 70s, by 3° each week. (Above is a plot for the average high temperatures for each Monday for the next 4 weeks.) Based on averages, we would expect some heat relief in the next month, but based on the pattern this week, look for highs in the upper 60s by the end of the week.
Our western sky at sunset Friday night. Courtesy Star Chart App.
The last few weeks, there has been a very bright star on our western sky at sunset, but it’s not a star, it’s the planet Venus. I consulted my Star Chart app on my iPad just to make sure and I am really impressed with the free app. (No, this is not a sales pitch, I just thought I would share it with everyone. ) Enjoy.
It looks like we will have perfect conditions Saturday morning for the Zero Prostate Cancer Run Fort Wayne. This year there will be a 5K walk/run and a 5 mile run. Look for plenty of sunshine and cool and comfortable conditions. Online registration is already closed, but you can register in person Saturday morning before the race at Portage Middle School. Just because online registration is closed, there is still plenty of room for many more runners. Even if you don’t run…. come out, walk and support a great cause.
Thanks to the local National Weather Service office of Northern Indiana for creating this YouTube video, giving us a tour of the local 88D Doppler Radar.
When you look at rain on a radar image, this is the piece of equipment that gathers the data. If you ever drive past WANE TV on State Blvd in Fort Wayne, if you look to the south of the station, you can see our Live Doppler 15 Fury in the back.
Drought level changes in the last 3 months. Courtesy the Drought Monitor.
If you read our blog post from this morning, you would have heard about a D0 level drought (abnormally dry conditions) expanding into the WANE viewing area. This is mainly in Lake County, Jay and Grant counties. So, what does this mean for the rest of the WANE viewing area? Let me just say this: “drought begets drought.”
In my honest opinion, I think the drought conditions across the WANE viewing area are going to expand and worsen over the next 3 weeks.
Take a look at this animation of how the drought expanded over parts of Iowa. In less than 3 months, they went from no drought, to a severe drought.
Now, I don’t think we will see severe drought conditions (D3 level) in less than a month, but I expect the entire WANE viewing area to be under a D0 drought level with portions possibly covered by a D1 drought. The only thing that is going to change this outlook is for us to see significant rain in the next 30 days and generally speaking, we would need to see about 3-4″ during that time to stop the expansion of the drought.