Sorry folks, I hate to rub it in, but look at the difference in our high temperatures from March 2012 to this March. This time last year I was driving around in my Jeep Wrangler with the liberty tops off. Now this year, I have the defrost going. Oh well, we know this can’t last forever, right?
Even though Wednesday is the first day of Spring, it will feel more like the 1st week of January instead. With a forecasted high temperture of 28° for Wednesday, it will likely be in the top 5, if not top 3, for the “Lowest Maximum” temperature for Fort Wayne for the 1st day of Spring.
Top 5 Lowest Maximum Temperatures for Fort Wayne (Coldest Highs) on the Vernal Equinox
- #1. 24° March 20, 1965
- #2. 27° March 20, 1986
- #3. 27° March 21, 1951
- #4 30° March 21, 1922
- #5. 32° March 20, 1932
The lowest minimum temperature (coldest low) was 12° on March 21, 1906.
If you are ready for 50s, 60s and 70s, you may not like the developing weather pattern for this upcoming week. Yes, even though the spring equinox is Wednesday at 7:02AM EDT, it is going to feel a lot more like the first week of January.
The image above is a snap shot of the GFS Model for Wednesday, showing the 500mb pressure level. Now, that sounds fairly complicated, but let me make is very simple for you. The bulls eye over the Great Lakes is a stalling area of low pressure. The “polar” low will bleed very cold, polar air into our area for the rest of the week.
(Technically, the upper level winds flow parallel to the white height contours on the map above. This signature is a classical, cold pattern for our area.)
What does this mean for you? Highs only in the lower 30s and upper 20s for the next 3 days. (That’s highs near or below freezing for about 70 to 90 hours.)
Weather radar has come a long way, to include Doppler and Dual Pole technology. So, where is weather radar going next? Phased Array is the next step and the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory has this great video talking about this new technology.
If you are a weather buff and have 5 minutes, check out this video above.
Before I dive into this blog post, remember, I am only the messenger folks. If you are looking for warmer weather to really take hold, don’t hold your breath. The temperature outlook for the last week of March (graphic posted above), is for below average temperatures for our area. Actually, March is the month of change with it comes to temperatures. March starts with an average high temperature on the 1st with 41° and ends with an average high temperature of 55° on the 31st.
So, what does that mean for us for the last week of this month? Any high temperature below 55° would verify, and we may have some isolated warmer days, but as a whole, I would look for more widespread highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s to close out the month.
What about the chance of precipitation? It looks like the storm track will set up over the Great Lakes for the last week of March, leaving us with a higher chance of above average precipitation. The big question is whether that precipitation comes as rain or snow? I am not ready to hang my hat on any snow forecast yet, but keep your eyes on this Saturday morning and Monday morning.
….. we started a ten day stretch of high temperatures above 70° with little or no rain. March 2012 ended being 14.2° above average with the warmest day on the 21st at 87°. Compare this to March of 2013 where our temperature is running 2.5° below average and the warmest day was on the 10th at 58°.
Even though the next 7 to 14 days look mainly cold and wet don’t let this cold stretch fool you. Our weather pattern can change at any time and persistence forecasting isn’t always the safest or most accurate forecast. So, hang in there! Before you know it, we will be right in the middle of a summer swelter and we will be asking for cooler weather to return.
Sadly, we missed out on seeing Comet Pan STARRS tonight due to our cloud cover and snow showers, but my very good friend and meteorologist Jacob Gontesky captured it on camera Tuesday night in eastern Kansas. Honestly, I am really jealous and really wished we had a clear night to see the new found comet. Here are a few of his raw pictures from Tuesday Night:
Hopefully we have a chance the next few nights to see Pan STARRS from our Hoosier sky. Click here to know where to look in the next few nights.
I wasn’t surprised when I saw this in the WANE TV parking lot at 915PM, but boy, did that happen fast. This is the “fast dusting” I called for in my earlier forecast and in our updated webforecast.
I am very thankful I had mention of at least a dusting in the forecast. So, what do I define as a dusting? There is no technical definition in the AMS weather dictionary, but I accept a dusting as a half inch or less of snow. Now that’s open to interpretation and so is “no significant accumulation,” which I put in the over 1″ of snow category that will stick on the pavement.
Are you looking for a fun, interactive way to teach your kids about severe weather? Check out “The Young Meteorologist Program, Severe Weather Awareness Preparedness Adventure.
I didn’t get too far into the game, but I can imagine me going through it with my son Jacob once he is old enough. Actually, I am absolutely amazed how far weather education has come in the last 15 years. Back when I was in college working on my meteorology degree, we were still printing off difax weather maps off a dot matrix printer and using laser disks. Now, you can find all you need to teach your kids about severe weather all with a simple Google search.
Anyway, if you have a child who is scared any time it thunders, this game is a great way to calm their fears and teach them how to be safe.
Check out our snow pack from the NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory. No, those are not clouds… you are looking at our snow pack from the Winter Blast on Tuesday. Can you see the river valleys that look like grey fingers across northern Indiana? Also, notice how much snow pack there is over parts of the Upper Midwest? I honestly do not remember the last time we have had this large of a snow footprint over the Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest.
If you are a snow lover, I hope you had a chance to enjoy it. I don’t expect us to have any more snow on the ground in about a weeks time.