As the weather data continues to come in to the weather center, the incoming snow looks to take a more northerly track through our part of the country. As a result, we’re going to see more snow across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio than we had thought in previous forecasts. Amounts will range greatly across the area with just a trace to 2″ possible by the Indiana/Michigan state line, while south of Fort Wayne – in Hartford City and Portland – up to 6 inches of snow are possible.
The colder air is moving in on Thursday and temps will be falling through the day. Rain will arrive Thursday evening. As temps drop to near freezing then, travel may become slick and slippery.
The rain will transition to snow late Thursday evening and, on Friday, some accumulating snow is expected from Fort Wayne south and eastward. Right now, accumulations aren’t that impressive – but, our forecast may change on Thursday as new weather data comes in and this weather system moves closer.
Keep checking in here on wane.com and on NewsChannel 15 for the latest.
It’s been a semi-foggy and misty nighttime through the region and we have the potential for dense fog to develop across the area by morning. Slowly, but surely, visibilities have been decreasing through the nighttime. Take a look at the evening observations from the Fort Wayne Airport and the Defiance Memorial Airport (Click the thumbnail to enlarge them).
All in all, these observations, aren’t bad…even the lowest observation, the 2.0 mi. visibility at Defiance equates to little travel impact overall. However, once visibilities fall to below a mile and approach 0…that’s when fog gets particularly dense and difficult to navigate through.
There’s a good amount of moisture in this warm, December air we have in place and temps need only stay steady or drop a degree or two and be teamed with a continuation of the light winds we’ve had tonight for our fog to thicken up by morning. And, this is a scenario that’s quite possible to start off our Wednesday commute. Be sure to check in early with Greg Shoup on First News for the latest on the forecast and for any school delays.
There’s been little change to the lake effect snow forecast for NW Indiana. A heavy band of snow still looks to develop late tonight and continue through the day on Wednesday, laying down amounts around 1 foot in portions of NW Indiana and, also, Southern Michigan – cities like LaPorte, Niles and Benton Harbor have an elevated potential for picking up some of the heaviest snowfall over the next 24 hours. Heavy snow is also likely in South Bend.
This heavy snow teamed with the gusty winds we’ll have in place (up to around 25 ph), could not come at a worse time – one of the busiest travel days of the year. Traveling on the Indiana Toll Road or Highway 30 in NW IN will be difficult and dangerous given these conditions. Lake effect snow watches and warnings are active for Wednesday, as a result.
Meanwhile, here around Fort Wayne, conditions will be much different. We’ll pick up only a trace of snow from a few flurries that blow in. If anyone in our area picks up accumulating snow, it would be viewers who live around Warsaw. Amounts could range around 1-3″ there, depending on how the lake effect snow band ends up developing.
Since many of you may have pre-Thanksgiving travel plans that will take you through NW Indiana (to places like South Bend, Valparaiso or Chicago), I wanted to alert you to a heavy snow scenario we are tracking in the Live Doppler 15 Fury Weather Center for late Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Strong northerly winds will be blowing in during that time and they will be producing lake effect snow that will be rapidly falling and blowing around – creating dangerous and difficult driving conditions.
A Lake Effect Snow Watch has already been issued for the NW corner of the state due to this potential and up to 12″ of snow falling in that region. The accumulation amounts will taper off quickly to the west and east and final accumulations will be determined by where the winds focus the heaviest part of the band from Tue night through Wednesday. Right now, very little of that snow will reach Fort Wayne – just a trace expected here. We’ll be monitoring this potential and we’ll keep you updated here on wane.com and on NewsChannel 15 when there are adjustments to the forecast.
Temperatures in the 30s and 20s this weekend will make for a downright cold weekend and our winds will give us wind chills as cold as the teens during the day…so, bundle up as you head out and about!
With this cold air rushing in, I checked the weather records to see if we were anywhere close to setting a record for lowest high temperatures for either November 23 (Sat.) or November 24 (Sun). As you will see in the comparison above, our forecast highs both days do not threaten any records. This is especially true for Sunday. The lowest high temp ever recorded for that date was 9° back in 1950. When I saw that, I thought…what was going on in 1950 that caused it to be that cold? It turns out that the arctic air back then was a result of the “1950 Great Thanksgiving Storm” aka “The Great Appalachian Storm”. If you’ve never heard about it, you can read more here.
A Fort Wayne holiday tradition happens this Friday night and you can catch it in person or LIVE on WANE-TV. “Christmas on Broadway” is the event that takes place on Broadway Plaza (just north of the intersection of Broadway and Park Ave.). The festivities begin at 5:30 PM, but you may want to arrive a little earlier with a large crowd expected to take in the tree lighting. Santa and Mrs. Claus are making the trip…along with some of the reindeer, too!
The tree lighting will happen right around 6 PM. This year’s tree is a 40-foot blue spruce that came from the Waynedale neighborhood. Event founder, Steve Shine of the Shine and Hardin Law Firm, which has offices on the plaza, personally inspected and selected the tree. He chose it because of its height, fullness, blueness and because it also had the fewest blemishes of the other half-dozen contenders.
Bundle up with a few layers when you come on out. Temps will be falling to the upper 30s by tree-lighting time and it’ll be windy, too, with wind chill values as low as the upper 20s to low 30s. Rain chances will be low by event time.
A cold front will move through the region in the Thu-Fri time frame bringing periods of rain with it. The airmass in front of this incoming front is typical for this time of the year and we’ll have highs in the upper 40s for Thu & Fri. But, after the front comes through, the door to the Arctic is opened and the cold air will really flow in.
This weekend, you’ll feel the impacts of this COLD air for sure. Highs will only be in the 30s Saturday, falling into the 20s on Sunday! Saturday may even see a few lake effect snow showers.
Our local National Weather Service office posted more info today about the tracks of the 12 tornadoes that made their way across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio on Sunday. Thought you’d like to see the graphical depiction below.
With 25 tornadoes statewide on Sunday, the day ranks as the 3rd highest total for tornadoes in a single day. Indiana averages 22 tornadoes in a year and we picked up more than that in one day…and in the month of NOVEMBER(!) – a month not known for such extreme weather here in our portion of the Midwest.
I was also asked today about the total rain that came from Sunday’s storms. Well, they blew through pretty quick and didn’t leave as much rain as you might have thought. Most locations picked up well under an inch of rain from Sunday’s storms.
While there were no previous reports of tornadoes being spotted on Sunday, damage assessment teams from the National Weather Service have determined that some of the damage in our area was, indeed, caused by tornadoes.
The confirmed tornadoes occurred in Grant County (2), Kosciusko County and Van Wert County.
Here’s the info on the tornado confirmations that the National Weather Service sent word of today:
...TORNADO /KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN/... RATING: EF-2 MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 125 MPH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH: 150 YARDS PATH LENGTH: 4.0 MILES START TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 343 PM EST END TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 348 PM EST LOCATION: 2.5 SOUTH OF SILVER LAKE TO 3 MILES EAST OF SILVER LAKE ...TORNADO /GRANT COUNTY/... RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 12 MILES PATH WIDTH: /MAXIMUM/: 0.4 MILES TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 3:50 PM EST LOCATION: PATH BEGAN 2 MILES N/NW OF SWEETSER AND ENDED ABOUT 1/2 MILE SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF 700N/600W JUST SOUTH OF THE GRANT/WABASH COUNTY LINE. DESCRIPTION: ESTIMATED 30-40 HOMES DAMAGED WITH 6 TO 10 HOMES RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. DOZENS OF VEHICLES WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
...TORNADO /VAN WERT COUNTY OH/... RATING: EF-1 MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 100 MPH MAXIMUM ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH: 150 YARDS PATH LENGTH: APPROX. 2 MILES START TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 447 PM EST END TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 449 PM EST LOCATION: TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED ABOUT 0.3 MILES SOUTH OF ELM SUGAR ROAD AND DONER ROAD INTERSECTION AND LIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE PAULDING COUNTY/VAN WERT COUNTY LINE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF CONVERSE ROSELM AND KIDNER ROADS.
...TORNADO /NEAR ROSEBURG IN GRANT COUNTY/... RATING: EF-0 PATH LENGTH: BRIEF TOUCHDOWN TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 3:55PM EST LOCATION:1 QUARTER MILE WEST OF 300W/300N JUST SOUTH OF ROSEBURG.