Upcoming rain/snow chances

December 22nd, 2014 at 9:31 pm by under Weather

More rain is possible on Tuesday as an area of low pressure passes through the region.  By Wednesday, a second area of low pressure will push through, bringing additional rain chances then.  These disturbances will also work to keep warmer than average air in place.  As a result, we’ll have just rain to worry about on Tuesday and during the day Wednesday (Christmas Eve).

Surface Map Monday Night

Surface Map Monday Night

It now looks like it won’t be until later on Christmas Eve night that enough cold air moves in to change the rain over to snow.  Our latest thinking on snow amounts takes us back into the Trace-1″ range by Christmas morning.  This is a complex forecast to make because the changeover to snow happens after 2 days with temps well above freezing, so even though snow may start to fall, it likely won’t start to accumulate right away due to the warmer ground.

Our latest Futurecast model run shows that snow won't mix in with rain (the pink color) until late Christmas Eve night - 9 PM or after.

Our latest Futurecast model run shows that snow won’t mix in with rain (the pink color) until late Christmas Eve night – 9 PM or after.

Most local travel across the region should not be hampered much by weather conditions, since the bulk of the precip will fall as rain and not snow or ice.

Travel conditions are rated "Good" through Christmas Eve night.  Late on Christmas Eve, drivers will have to watch out for slick spots with rain changing to snow.

Travel conditions are rated “Good” through Christmas Eve night. Late on Christmas Eve, drivers will have to watch out for slick spots as rain changes to snow.


White Christmas possible

December 22nd, 2014 at 9:32 am by under Weather

Can you believe Christmas is just around the corner? Our area may be all decorated up but we’re missing something…SNOW! In fact, by this date last year, we had over double the amount of snow we’ve officially reported so far this year.

Of the snow recorded at the airport this season, all but 0.2" of it was in November!

Of the snow recorded at the airport this season, all but 0.2″ of it was in November!

For the past couple of days, it has seemed that a white Christmas wasn’t looking too likely. With the forecast models now finally getting a better sampling of data on this storm (now that it’s finally over the west coast), we now have a better idea of how this system will evolve. Models this morning agree that we may be able to squeeze out some light accumulation just in time for Christmas!

The latest forecast track for this storm pulls more cold air in by Wednesday night.

The latest forecast track for this storm pulls more cold air in by Wednesday night.

Just as we’ve been saying for the past several days – rain will change to snow during the day on Wednesday. Right now, the timing looks to be by late afternoon or early evening. Some mix may make road surfaces slick. With low pressure pushing northeastward through the Ohio River Valley, that could produce some significant snowfall here. What will work against accumulation, though, is the fact that temps will have been in the 40s & 50s a few days prior (ground will be warm) and the rain we’ll pick up early this week. Both of those factors will limit accumulation. At this point in time, up to 1″-2″ of snow may be possible by Christmas morning.  The snow showers will taper off by Christmas morning, but roads may be slick. If you plan on traveling Christmas Eve night or Christmas Day, keep that in mind!

Of course, this forecast is still subject to change, so keeping checking back for the latest!

Pattern change settles in

December 21st, 2014 at 4:25 pm by under Weather

The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team has been talking about a pattern change late in December for quite sometime now, and it is knocking at our door. After a fairly calm and mild December, the pattern looks to become cold and active for the rest of them month. For more on the Christmas week rain and snow potential, click here for your forecast video. 

The average high as we end the month of December and start the new year falls to around freezing. The long range pattern looks stubborn to keep us at, or even colder than average as we end 2014 and begin 2015. (4) (2)

Holiday travel update

December 21st, 2014 at 12:20 pm by under Weather

Our chances of having a white Christmas continue to decrease with the latest forecast model runs. In fact, with the latest projected path of this storm, enough warm air may be in place to allow the bulk of precipitation to fall as rain Wednesday (Christmas Eve). Here’s a quick recap of what to expect if you’re doing some traveling this week.

Keep checking back for updates!

Keep checking back for updates!

First day of winter

December 20th, 2014 at 9:56 pm by under Weather

The end of the fall is upon us, and we’re gearing up for the first day of winter tomorrow. The winter solstice occurs Dec. 21 at 6:03 p.m. EST.

Source: SciJinks

Source: SciJinks

We’re entering what is statistically/climatologically the coldest period of time in a calendar year in the northern hemisphere. Even though the days will be getting longer from now on, the average temperature will continue to drop all the way through the last week of January. This is due to ‘seasonal lag.’ If you’d like to learn more about solstices or other seasonal phenomena, click here or the picture above.

Winter Weather Special Airs TONIGHT!

December 20th, 2014 at 1:35 pm by under Weather

Time for one more shameless plug – the 15 Fury Winter Weather Special airs tonight at 7pm on NewsChannel 15! We’ve put a lot of work into this over the past few months, so I hope you can sit down and enjoy it! In the special, we’ll recap all the amazing stats from last winter, take a look at social media-rologists, winter psychology, winter phenomena, and provide an outlook of what we can expect for this winter. Here’s one last little preview to get you excited for tonight!

Day-by-day look at next week

December 19th, 2014 at 9:41 pm by under Weather

With the Christmas holiday now less than a week away and many of you hearing rumblings of rain and snow next week, I wanted to break down what the forecast is looking like at this point.  There likely will still be some fluctuation in this timeline between now and then and we’ll keep you posted here on and over on NewsChannel 15 with the latest.

A look ahead to next week...

A look ahead to next week…


Latest on white Christmas forecast

December 19th, 2014 at 12:33 pm by under Weather
The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The huge system still looks in place for snowfall across the northeast United States. The interesting development is that our European forecast solution is changing the rain to snow by about 1pm Wednesday with some moisture left over. This solution could bring a few inches of snowfall just in time for Christmas Eve.

To be fair the American solution or GFS is showing the precipitation as all rain.

The physics used on the European solution are considered superior to the GFS solution. This could change as this system moves closer. A couple of things to look at here. Each run of our models has shown colder air moving in Wednesday, so that seems to be a trend. The other thing we are looking for as meteorologists is some sort of consistency between these two solutions. That would solidify the forecast more. Look for that to happen by early next week if not sooner.

Keep in mind that this system is not even on the coast yet so the path could change and even a small change would have a great impact in the amount of rain or snow which will track across our region.

12/19 7 day forecast.

12/19 7 day forecast.

15 Fury Winter Weather Special – Preview

December 18th, 2014 at 9:13 pm by under Weather

The 15 Fury Weather Team has been hard at work over the past few months putting together our winter weather special – and we think it’s one of the best we’ve ever done! We decided to change up some scenery and get out of the studio – and with it being the winter weather special, we thought a coffee shop would be the perfect setting! In the special, we’ll cover:

  • A look back at last winter (the “Toughest Winter Ever”)
  • Social Media-rologists – who can you trust on social media for forecasts?
  • Winter Weather Phobias – the psychology behind the winter season
  • Winter Weather Phenomena – what causes thundersnow, how much does snow weigh, what are snow rollers?
  • Gearing Up – what Fort Wayne is doing to prepare for this season
  • 2014-2015 Winter Outlook – what can we expect with temps and snowfall this time around?

Holiday snowfall update

December 18th, 2014 at 9:49 am by under Weather

The forecast gets more interesting and at the same time more complicated with each run of our mathematical model. Updates from yesterday show this massive low pressure system still creating a huge snow for the northeastern United States with rain through NE Indiana Tuesday. However, new developments and now both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) have the rain snow line shifting earlier than yesterday’s runs. This scenario has the rain/snow change over happening around 7am Wednesday morning and has a couple of inches of snow falling through late Christmas Eve.

This scenario will continue to change over the next several days but it be of ‘high interest’ for our meteorologists to track this over the next 60 to 72 hours.

If you are traveling toward the northeastern United States you may see a significant travel hazard and a possible change of plans.

Of course we will keep you updated.