Friday afternoon best snowfall chances according to Futurecast
The biggest question in the weather center as of late is #1. Are we going to get snow and #2 How much will we get? I will tell you there is quite a bit of uncertainty about both of these questions right now. Our ‘in-house’ model which is derived off what is called the NAM solution does show measurable snowfall south of Fort Wayne Friday afternoon and ending Friday evening.
Snow moves out by Friday evening (7pm snapshot)
Snowfall amounts are very minimal around the Fort Wayne area and north as this is a southern based system.
Futurecast Snowfall Accumulation Estimates
However, the snowfall accumulation graphic does show about 1″ just south of Fort Wayne and up to 3″ in the Portland, (Jay County) area.
The European solution is bringing heavier snowfall across the area while the American or GFS solution is bringing almost nothing to the region.
Right now the thought is since there is no consensus it seems like the lower amounts hold more weight as far as trustworthiness right now. The ‘far out’ solutions seem to be just that. Really far off track.
It’s been a semi-foggy and misty nighttime through the region and we have the potential for dense fog to develop across the area by morning. Slowly, but surely, visibilities have been decreasing through the nighttime. Take a look at the evening observations from the Fort Wayne Airport and the Defiance Memorial Airport (Click the thumbnail to enlarge them).
Fort Wayne Fog Observations (Image Credit: NWS IWX)
Defiance Fog Observations (Image Credit: NWS IWX)
All in all, these observations, aren’t bad…even the lowest observation, the 2.0 mi. visibility at Defiance equates to little travel impact overall. However, once visibilities fall to below a mile and approach 0…that’s when fog gets particularly dense and difficult to navigate through.
There’s a good amount of moisture in this warm, December air we have in place and temps need only stay steady or drop a degree or two and be teamed with a continuation of the light winds we’ve had tonight for our fog to thicken up by morning. And, this is a scenario that’s quite possible to start off our Wednesday commute. Be sure to check in early with Greg Shoup on First News for the latest on the forecast and for any school delays.
NAM model puts heavy snowfall across Indianapolis Friday. (NOAA)
Remember this is one model solution and this solution is not favored by the two other models we are using for this day but it does show a heavy snow band across Indianapolis through Friday with a developing system. This solution is not favored by the two other solutions of choice this day so we will have to see how this system develops.
Watches and Warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The purple color indicates Winter Weather Advisories while the pink indicates winter storm warnings for a large portion of the U.S through Wednesday.
Question is whether we see this system over spread this type of weather towards our area
This storm will spread cold air across the region through the weekend with another shot of cold air coming in Monday into Tuesday of next week.
We’ve got a lot to track over the next 7-10 days. Below you’ll find a discussion on each potential event with model images. If you click the pictures you’ll find a brief description of what we’re tracking/expecting. Keep in mind the farther out these systems, the more likely there will be adjustments to the forecast. Right now, there are no indications of significant snows here in NE Indiana and NW Ohio, but we could, however, see a few rounds of minor accumulations.
System 1 – WEDNESDAY, 12/4
Model Depiction of System 1 Precip Forecast for 12/4
Model Depiction of System 1 Temp Forecast for 12/4
System 2 – FRIDAY, 12/6
Model Depiction of System 2 Precip Forecast for 12/6
Models depicts very cold temperatures by the end of the week.
System 3 – SUNDAY, 12/8
Model Depiction of System 3 Precip Forecast for 12/8
System 4 – TUESDAY 12/10
Model Depiction of System 4 Precip Forecast for 12/10
You can see by the 7 day forecast that we will experiencing big changes as the week progresses
One look at the 7 day forecast and you may want to ‘run for the hills’. You don’t know what to wear and you’ll have to keep two sets of clothes out again. One of the things we look for when for forecasting are huge changes. We try to see if there is consensus with mathematical solutions or if one of them is so ‘out to lunch’ that it cannot be reliable. Right now we see to have consensus on an arctic wave of cold air coming in late this week and weekend.
850 mb temperatures as the cold air begins to move in. (NOAA)
Take a look toward the northern Rockies as the cold air begins to spill in from the north. Some of these blue lines represent -20 Celsius or -4 Fahrenheit. That’s pretty cold for early December. This cold air begins to build east but does moderate as it heads east. We still believe temperatures will be in the 20s this weekend.
Snowfall through midweek. (NOAA) (St. Louis University)
You can see that we will see heavy snowfall to the northern Rockies with this upcoming storm. How does that translate for our area? Right now I don’t believe the heaviest snow will be across the Great Lakes, although we may see heavy snowfall just west of Indiana. That’s how the solutions are looking right now. As the event on Friday starts to unfold we may be changing that forecast.
We’re rolling right along into the last month of 2013 which means we’re inching closer and closer to Christmas. While snow is usually on the ‘bad word list’ for a lot of people, an exception gets made near Christmas as many start dreaming of waking up to snow on the ground to put them in the fullest holiday spirit as possible. But what are the odds this year? Well, it’s way too early for a forecast for Christmas, but what we can do is look at recorded data and statistics. Below you’ll find a map created by The National Weather Service on the odds of seeing a white Christmas in your area. NE Indiana and NW Ohio have about a 50/50 chance each year while areas just to our north have much better odds. Keep in mind, a white Christmas means there is 1″ or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
Odds of a White Christmas map created by The National Weather Service
As I’ve mentioned before on here, I’m a bit of a climate buff…so I was excited to read the seasonal climatological report for Fort Wayne. The report, issued today and compiled by our friends at the Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service, offers a nice recap of what we experienced during the Fall 2013 season.
Some of the things that stand out most:
The stretch of 90° weather we saw in September helped to boost the monthly average temperature to just above normal for the month.
There was only a 10-day window in October between 80° weather and freezing temperatures.
Halloween 2013 was a soaker! We were below average precipitation-wise until the Halloween storm brought almost 1.75″ of rain to our area, thereby overfilling the monthly rain gauge totals.
November was a temperature roller coaster ride – cold spells, warm spells, more cold, etc.
During the November warm spell, a powerful storm brought 28 tornadoes across Indiana – the most in a single day in November and the third most tornadoes for any day of the year in Indiana.
Temperature-wise, September & October were right around where we should be for this time of year. November, even with it’s big temperature swings, was several degrees below average.
November is actually the reason Fall 2013 will be remembered as a slightly cooler than average season.
Just about the entire season was fairly dry here, with the exception of a few storms (such as Halloween). Both September & November finished below average precipitation-wise.
...THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE FALL SEASON,
FROM 9/1/2013 TO 11/30/2013...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2013
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE
HIGH 100 09/02/1953
HIGHEST 95 09/11 MM MM 87
LOWEST 14 11/24 MM MM 21
AVG. MAXIMUM 62.5 63.1 -0.6 61.6
AVG. MINIMUM 41.5 42.4 -0.9 40.7
MEAN 52.0 52.8 -0.8
DAYS MAX >= 90 3 1.2 1.8 0
DAYS MAX <= 32 3 1.4 1.6 1
DAYS MIN <= 32 23 18.7 4.3 29
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0
MAXIMUM 16.47 1992
MINIMUM 2.89 1964
TOTALS 7.01 8.73 -1.72 7.52
DAILY AVG. 0.08 0.10 -0.02 0.08
DAYS >= .01 26 30.0 -4.0 31
DAYS >= .10 17 17.9 -0.9 19
DAYS >= .50 4 5.7 -1.7 4
DAYS >= 1.00 1 1.9 -0.9 1
24 HR. TOTAL 1.74 MM
TOTAL 14.1 1950
24 HR TOTAL MM
TOTALS 1.0 2.1 -1.1 0.6
SINCE 7/1 1.0 2.1 -1.1 0.6
SNOWDEPTH AVG. 0 MM MM 0
DAYS >= TRACE 9 2.8 6.2 6
DAYS >= 1.0 0 0.6 -0.6 0
SNOW DEPTH 1 11/12 0
24 HR TOTAL 0.5 MM
November is coming to an end, and that means ‘meteorological winter’ takes over December 1st. Many of you are probably already in the winter mindset after a very chilly end to November. 21 out of the 30 days in November were below average. The last week of November brought several days with high temperatures 10-14° below average. Let’s take a look at the averages of December, our first month of meteorological winter. 1027 913
Average high and low temperatures for Fort Wayne from the beginning of December to the end
You can see in the chart above, we really start to get frigid in our region. We struggle to pass the freezing mark for average high temps by the end of December and our lows, on average, will be in the teens.
Of course one of the big weather stories in December is always the dreaded ‘S’ word…. snow! We average about 8.5″ of snow during the month of December in Fort Wayne. Here’s a look at the distribution of average December snow from the National Weather Service of Northern Indiana.
Average December Snow from NWS of Northern Indiana
We also experience our shortest day of the year and lose about 74 minutes of sunlight. We go from having 10 hours and 27 minutes of daylight in the beginning of the month to only 9 hours and 13 minutes of daylight by the winter solstice.
Today marks the official end to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season (which started back on June 1st) and if you don’t remember hearing much about it, you’re right! Records show that this was the least active season in 30 years!
Records over the past 30 years indicates that, on average, 12 tropical storms form during an entire season, 6-7 of those go on to become hurricanes, and 2 of those reaching major hurricane strength (category 3+). For 2013, there were 13 tropical storms, only 2 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. Even the two hurricanes that did form were of weak intensity (minimal category 1 storms).
Recap of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Image courtesy: National Weather Service.
Forecasts based on computer models from renowned meteorology programs at CSU and FSU, along with those issued by places like NOAA, the UK Met Office, AccuWeather, and others, all indicated that this would be an active season with about 7-9 hurricanes. Interestingly enough, only the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) model, which tends to perform well in longer-range forecasts here in the U.S., predicted a slightly below average season, though it still expected 6-7 hurricanes to form.
So what happened? The “boring” hurricane season can be attributed to a number of different factors, including:
Drier-than-average air (especially off the coast of Africa)
Stable air – the instability needed for the formation of these storms just wasn’t there
Weak jet stream coming from Africa into the Atlantic
Black Friday turned out to be a very chilly one! We had a low temperature of 16° for the shoppers this morning, but if you have plans to support local businesses on Saturday, temperatures will be a tad warmer. The morning stats of chilly with lows in the low to mid 20s. After some breaks in the cloud cover by the late morning, we’ll see plenty of sun throughout the day. The sunshine and SW flow will allow temperatures to rise near average in the middle 40s. Fort Wayne will have a high of 43°.