The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center released their outlook for the 2014-2015 winter season yesterday and you may not like the sounds of it if you’re a snow-lover. The outlook calls for temperatures to hover around average here in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. It also calls for below average precipitation. In fact, the outlook says there’s a greater than 40% chance that much of our area will be drier than average this winter.
The winter outlook calls for a normal winter temperature-wise in the Midwest. Courtesy: NOAA.
The outlook calls for a drier than average winter for our area. Courtesy: NOAA.
To make these outlooks, the Climate Prediction Center looked at a number of different teleconnections and factors, including the potential for an El Nino, various ocean oscillations, and weather patterns. As we all know, last winter broke records for how cold and snowy it was. Check out the outlook the Climate Prediction Center issued for last winter:
Last year’s winter outlook called for average temperatures. Courtesy: NOAA.
Last year’s precipitation outlook called for average amounts of snow. Courtesy: NOAA.
The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team is also in the process of making a winter outlook for our area. We’ll unveil this in the 15 Fury Winter Weather Special, airing in December. Stay tuned!
It’s been a week where we’ve had a hard time kicking the rain chances completely to the curb…so, yes, that means some raindrops will be possible, again, tomorrow. Most of Friday will be dry, though, until our next weather system drops in later in the day, bringing us an influx of clouds and the additional raindrops.
Friday Night Football Forecast for 10/17/14
The rain will be light and scattered, arriving during late evening, when many will be out at area Friday night football games. These pesky, stubborn showers may dampen the mood at some area football fields, but they won’t completely ruin all the fun. Have the poncho ready and you’ll be good to go, if one of the showers falls where you are.
With two tropical systems making headlines (Hurricane Gonzalo off the coast of Bermuda and Tropical Storm Ana southeast of Hawaii) I thought I would share one of my favorite links – a visualization of the winds across the globe. This visualization directly shows the counter-clockwise rotation associated with the aforementioned storms – which are areas of low pressure. I love the interactivity of this map too! It allows you to zoom in on features of interest and take a broader perspective of what’s happening at a particular part of the globe. See if you can find these storms (click on the image below):
This visualization shows the global wind patterns. Image courtesy: earth.nullschool.net
Hurricane Gonzalo is currently a Category 4 storm with wind speeds of up to 140 mph. It is forecast to move right over Bermuda tomorrow as a major hurricane. Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Ana is expected to strengthen to Category 1 status (winds up to 95 mph) before impacting Hawaii this weekend. Since 1950, only four hurricanes have come within 150 nautical miles of Hawaii’s capital city of Honolulu. The impacts of Ana are still uncertain – it may just bring rain and gusty winds or it could become a significant storm.
Latest satellite imagery of Hurricane Ana in the Pacific. Courtesy: National Hurricane Center.
While Pacific hurricanes resulted in heavy rain across parts of the American southwest in recent months, things have been very quiet on the Atlantic hurricane beat.
While we’ve had 21 named storms in the eastern Pacific, the western Atlantic has only seen 8. Our current Atlantic storm, Hurricane Gonzalo, is the strongest that’s developed in the Atlantic this season. (Take a look at the NASA/NOAA GOES video below and watch the storm come into sight)
As of Wednesday night, the highest intensity Gonzalo achieved was as a Category 4 storm, producing winds between 131 and 155 mph. On its current track, the storm will not hit the U.S. It’s forecasted to turn to the northeast and move by Bermuda on Friday.
Credit: National Hurricane Center – Hurricane Gonzalo Track as of 5 PM 10/15/14
However, there will be some storm affects felt here in the US. High ocean swells are expected, which can cause dangerous rip current conditions. The same is true for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.
You may be wondering what is happening outside today. Because the ‘weather people’ said the front moved through yesterday, so why is it cloudy with light rain falling today? This pattern is called a closed or cut off low in meteorological circles. It is a contained weather system with winds circulating around and is usually in what meteorologists would define as an upper level weather system because it resides about 15,000 feet above the ground. These types of weather systems can sometimes stay in an area for 6 to 8 days since the low is not connected to the upper level wind flow of the jet stream. It usually forms around a ‘cool pool’ of air and it can persist until that pool of air finally warms or another weather disturbance pushes it out of the way.
We will experience the latter of the two ‘means to an end’ here. A strong high pressure area from the north will dislodge this system by late Thursday and Friday. These types of weather phenomena are most common across the Great Lakes and Southwestern United States.
This fall’s ShakeOut days is Thursday (October 16).
It’s that time again…the Great Central U.S. ShakeOut will take place at 10:16 AM on 10/16 – this Thursday. It’s a time to practice your emergency plans for when an earthquake strikes. And, yes, although earthquakes don’t often strike the Fort Wayne area, they can happen here.
The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team and the Indiana Department of Homeland Security (IDHS) encourage you and your family to take part and have your preparation plan in place. And, if you can’t do it at 10:16 AM on Thursday, set aside some time during another portion of the day.
Here’s a snapshot of how I’d take cover at our WANE studios.
The instructions for the ShakeOut are simple. IDHS says, “At 10:16 a.m. on October 16th, participants should drop to the ground, take cover under a table or desk, and hold on to a table or desk as if a major earthquake were happening. Practicing early is the key to protecting yourself and others during an actual earthquake.”
It will be a much different forecast after today as an upper level low moves across the area. An upper level low pressure center will almost anchor itself over our area. This kind of pattern is very slow to move. There are virtually no winds to move it anywhere and as a result it remains cut off front the main jet stream flow. This will mean showers and cooler temperatures will persist for at least 36 hours before higher pressure finally moves it east.
Severe storms are possible over the next 24 hours across our portion of the Midwest with damaging winds and flooding rainfall the greatest threats. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out.
Storm Outlook Mon. Night-Tue
Severe Storm Threats
Widespread rain/storms move in during the post-midnight time frame and continue crossing the area during the morning commute. By noon, the heaviest rain shifts east and the rain becomes lighter in intensity and more scattered during the afternoon. We’ll be monitoring for any sunshine to peek out during the afternoon hours because that could lead to storm redevelopment later in the afternoon/evening. If we remain cloudy, additional storms will be unlikely late in the day. However, some additional light, lingering showers would continue off-and-on Tuesday night.
Tuesday 6 AM
Tuesday 9 AM
Tuesday 12 PM
Tuesday 3 PM
We’re expected to pick up between 1″-2″ of new rainfall across the area Monday night – Tuesday night.
Day one severe weather outlook through Monday Evening
Heavy rainfall on Futurecast through 9 am Tuesday
Heavy rainfall begins between 5 and 6 am Tuesday on Futurecast
Estimated rainfall Futurecast through Tuesday 11pm
Here is the latest on showers and storms which will be moving across our area over the next 24 hours. For the afternoon and evening hours of Monday the Day One Severe Weather Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center has put the slight risk just south of the WANE coverage area. Right now it looks like the dynamics in place will cause heavy rainfall with some gusty winds over the next 24 hours up to about 25 mph. But at this time we are not expected to see severe weather across our area.
Now on to the next area of concern and that is heavy rainfall. Futurecast has heavy rain moving into our area between 5 and 6 am and exiting during the early afternoon. Rainfall amounts could be heavy in local areas as Futurecast is putting up to 2″ across some areas through Tuesday evening.
This weather system will also bring cooler air to the region by Wednesday. The other issue Wednesday will be lingering low pressure which will cause clouds and light showers through the day and could linger into Thursday as the stubborn low will move very slowly to the east.
Monday and Tuesday will have a lot going on. A robust storm system getting its act together to our west will bring rain into the area Monday and Tuesday. A few showers and storms will roll through Monday, especially during the first half of the day.
Futurecast showing scattered rain at 7 AM Monday
Accompanying the rain chances will be a nice warm up thanks to a strong southerly wind 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 possible. Monday will not be a washout. The scattered and isolated variety of rain is likely to take a break in the later afternoon and evening.
Futurecast showing a break in rain chances
The rain chances and intensity really ramp up overnight Monday and throughout the day Tuesday. Tuesday is likely to be a washout as rain, heavy at times, will be present for much of the day. Models are in good agreement that most locations will pick up 1″+ of rain over the next 48 hours (Monday and Tuesday collectively).