High school football fans take note: The weather will be much better for Friday night football games this week. Unlike last week, we have no worries for heavy rain or strong storms. However, it will be much cooler than average for this time of year, so an extra layer or two of clothing will be needed out at the games.
Under a mostly cloudy sky, temperatures will fall from around 60 at kickoff time to the mid-upper 50s by the fourth quarter.
Friday night football forecast for 9/12/14 (Football image credit: MGN (WPBN/WTOM))
The storms are out and the cool air is in! Now that the cold front that brought us all the heavy rain and stormy weather yesterday has moved off to our east, high pressure will build in from the west. This area of high pressure will tap into some polar air and send it in our direction. With a northwesterly breeze and mostly cloudy skies behind the front today, our temperatures will struggle to make it into the upper 60s.
Most places will be at least 10° below our average high of 78° today.
And this is just the beginning of the cool spell I previously blogged about this past weekend. Temperatures will remain 10-15° below average through the weekend and for much of next week.
Temperatures will hover in the 60s for the next several days.
Overnight lows will also be on the cool side, with temperatures dipping down into the 40s on many nights. Bust out the jackets – there’s no doubt that it will definitely feel like fall!
It was a record setting day for rainfall in Fort Wayne with 3.24″ inches observed at the airport as of this posting. This surpasses the old record of 1.43″ that’s been standing since way back in 1937.
A soaking wet Wednesday.
Rain totals ranged all the way up to 4.50″ in Huntington. Take a look at some of the totals from other cities and towns across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Storm total rainfall through Wednesday night
Isolated tornadoes were possible with Wednesday’s storms and Van Wert County Emergency Manager Rick McCoy shares this pic of a barn with its shingles torn off from what he deems a suspected tornado near Delphos. He has come to this conclusion based on a witness’ report and his own damage survey. The National Weather Service has not yet decided if they will travel to Van Wert County to confirm whether this damage was, indeed, caused by a tornado.
We’ve seen very impressive rain totals across the viewing area today. Most reports we’ve received are in excess of 1.5″ while some have been as high as 3″! Here’s a look at a few hometowns to give you an idea of what we’re talking about. We will continue to get more reports as the evening progresses.
The entire area is under a Tornado Watch for this afternoon and part of the evening. A robust storm system moving through the Great Lakes is the one responsible not only for our severe weather threat, but the incredible rain we’ve seen. As of 1:30 PM, our ‘WANE gauge’ picked up 1.33″ of rain. We’ve seen reports of 2+ inches in some areas this afternoon. Many of you asked, ‘what’s with the tornado watch!?’ As we’ve been reporting all week, we will very likely fight through the day on the low end of instability. This would be the ‘fuel’ for storms we’ve discussed. The extensive cloud cover and heavy rains have helped keep the instability down, thus the severe threat is being suppressed a bit. But instability is not the only part of the severe weather equation.
The impressive late-summer storm system has robust winds associated with it. Wind shear, or how the winds from the surface and aloft behave with speed and direction, is also very important. A highly sheared environment is critical for severe storms to organize, maintain strength and even rotate. Locally, our environment is HIGHLY sheared. This very impressive shear and robust dynamics are part of the reason the SPC issued the tornado watch. While instability is very important for severe weather, it doesn’t require much for dangerous storms in this sheared of an environment. A quick spin-up/weaker end tornado cannot be ruled out in situations like this. Had we been more unstable, this day would have likely been very active.
Biggest risk for damaging winds southwest of our area and a slight risk for tornadoes
Greatest risk for gusty winds and flooding damage
There is still a slight risk for severe weather across our area but the focus for the most damaging winds will be southwest of our area. There is still a very small risk of tornadoes but without the sunshine we will probably not see the severity of storms we expected to see with morning sun to destabilize the atmosphere.
Flash Flood watch until 12AM Thursday
Futurecast shows the heaviest rain moving in through late morning and afternoon
Heavy rainfall possible through early afternoon on Futurecast
Futurecast rainfall estimates through Midnight Thursday
Much of the focus has been shifted to storms that will produce heavy rainfall. Futurecast has heavy rain through much of the early afternoon. It also forecasts impressive rainfall amounts for the area through midnight with up to 3″ from Fort Wayne to the south of Fort Wayne.
Our latest run of Futurecast, just processed in the weather center, speeds up the arrival of Wednesday’s widespread rain and this corresponds to other weather data that I’ve seen come in tonight, so I have good confidence in it.
Look for widespread rain and storms (not just scattered, light rain) possible as early as late morning/midday.
Take a look at these new Futurecast snapshots…note the heavy rain expected by around noon.
Our latest surface map tonight shows the cold front that was across the northern tier of the country yesterday sinking farther to the south and soon to combine forces with an area of low pressure that has developed across the central part of the country. This area of low pressure will become the dominant weather feature on the map on Wednesday and will result in an active weather day across the Great Lakes region.
Tuesday night surface map
Scattered rain, mainly lighter in intensity, moves in during Wednesday morning with the more intense rain and storm activity holding off until later in the afternoon and evening. Our severe weather potential is still significant, but it is not set in stone that severe storms will actually develop. The deciding factor on the strength of the storms will come as a result of how much instability develops in the atmosphere during the day. For example, if it’s gray and overcast all morning and afternoon long, our severe potential is lower. But, if we see some peeks of daytime sunshine and temps jump up, storms would have more energy to work with to grow in strength.
Sctd. rain at midday
Heavy rain/storms at 5 PM
Rain and storms moving east by 9 PM
Rain clears area overnight into Thu
Should severe storms develop, storms that would produce damaging winds 60+ mph would be our primary concern. Isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. Large hail and some localized flooding are also possible. 1″ of rainfall is likely to be widespread with the potential for pockets of 2″+ in some areas where the heaviest rain sets up.
This is where the greatest risk is likely across our entire area
Futurecast has the highest risk between 4 and 9pm
Threat is great for gusty winds and there is also a risk for tornadoes
Here is the latest on the severe weather risk for Wednesday. A powerful weather system will move through the area. This on its own will create a good amount of forcing and instability. That coupled with some morning sunshine may be all the atmosphere needs to fire off some strong storms. There are still quite a few questions that only the atmosphere will answer Wednesday. First and foremost will we see any sunshine? If we do see sunshine that will cause increased visibility and severe weather will mostly likely happen.
The first graphic shows the entire area under a slight risk as assessed by the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday Afternoon and evening.
The second graphic is the same risk area with the area most at risk assessment as northeastern Indiana. There is a 45% risk that we will see severe weather across our area Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
The third graphic shows that Futurecast has the timing of this event between about 3pm and 9pm on Wednesday with the highest risk of severe weather between 4 and 8pm.
Finally, the last graphic shows that the highest risk will be for wind as there will already be considerable amount of wind created by the changing pressure. There is also a moderate risk for hail and there is also a risk for tornadoes.
A significant weather system is taking shape off to our west and northwest and it’s on track to bring us rain and storms by Wednesday.
Surface Map Monday Afternoon
Some rain may drift in a little earlier, though, with a slight chance of some scattered rain moving across the area from late morning on Tuesday through the afternoon. Most of the day, though, will be dry.
Futurecast Tue 11 AM
Futurecast Tue 3 PM
We won’t see the main system move in, and the arrival of widespread rain and storm chances, until Wednesday morning’s commute. Periods of rain and storms will then continue through the day and severe storms remain a possibility during the afternoon and evening. The main concern is for storms that would produce damaging winds.
Futurecast Wed 8 AM
Futurecast Wed 1 PM
Futurecast Wed 7 PM
Futurecast Wed 11 PM
Rain totals will likely be around 1″, if not higher. Some spots could see between 2″ and 3″ – all depending on where the heaviest pockets of rain develop. Currently, Futurecast places the heaviest corridor of rain in our northern counties, but that could very well shift a little bit more north or south depending on how the storm develops and tracks on its way to us in the days ahead.
Wed Storm Outlook
Rain Totals by Wed Night
Keep checking in here on wane.com and on NewsChannel 15 as Wednesday approaches for more updates on Wednesday’s storm potential.