Storms are popping up very rapidly throughout our area (as expected with the instability in place). Most of these storms are moving east-southeast. Some have a history of producing pea-size hail, heavy downpours, and lightning.
Lots of lightning with these storms.
If there are any watches or warnings issued, we’ll break into programming on NewsChannel 15 (as needed). And of course, you can track these storms yourself using our radar on the WANE mobile app and on wane.com.
Severe alerts can also be found HERE. Stay weather aware!
As heat and humidity builds today, so does the instability that serves as the fuel for thunderstorms. According to the latest from the Storm Prediction Center, our area continues to have a slight risk for some thunderstorms to become strong to severe.
The best chance for severe weather remains to our south, but the potential still exists in our area.
Clouds will be on the increase through this afternoon with rounds storms beginning to pop-up by mid-afternoon. As a rough time estimate, we could be looking at a round of storms moving in during the 3-6p window. Another round may move in closer to sunset, followed by a more significant round late tonight or overnight. Some of these storms may be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The latest forecast models continue to indicate that with the setup we’re expecting, the best chance for severe storms looks to be along and south of Hwy 30. Areas to our south (in Central and Southern Indiana) have a better chance (moderate risk) of seeing severe weather this evening and overnight.
Make sure you stay weather aware!
You’ll want to tune in to First News tomorrow morning at 8am on NewsChannel 15 – we’ll still be tracking the potential for rounds of rain and storms. Some of those storms will still have the potential of becoming strong to severe. It won’t be until a cold front slides through during the early afternoon that our severe threat diminishes. Behind this cold front, we’ll see some leftover showers and storms for the rest of the afternoon and evening on Sunday before much cooler and more comfortable air moves in for Monday.
Keep checking back on wane.com and on NewsChannel 15 for all the latest! Don’t forget – you can also see the latest radar on our WANE mobile app and also on our 15.3 channel.
We continue to monitor severe storm potential for both Saturday and Sunday as the Allen County Fair comes to a close this weekend. If you’re headed out there over the next couple of days, think about downloading our WANE Mobile app from your preferred app store and/or signing up for severe weather text alerts.
The highest likelihood of strong and severe storms arrives by late afternoon and extends through Saturday night into Sunday. That means attendees of the county fair may need to take shelter at some point.
Saturday’s Allen County Fair Forecast
Some good news regarding this weekend’s storms is that they will come in rounds, allowing for dry times in between. Still, though, you will need to be on alert for dangerous lightning, damaging winds and hail potential. The potential for isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out across the region.
I, personally, am hoping we can hold these storms away until, at least, after fair hours so all the events can get in as scheduled. I know I’m looking forward to being out with the 4-H-ers at 3 pm to judge the annual BBQ competition. The students have impressed me the last 2 years with their grilling creations and I wonder what they have in store this year.
Other Saturday events going on at the fair include the pot-bellied pig races from 7-9 pm and the car demolition derby at 7:30 pm.
Here I am with last year’s high school 4-H BBQ entrants. Look at my smiling face. I was well fed by these 4 that day.
Slight risk area for all of Indiana Saturday (Storm Prediction Center)
Highest risk from Fort Wayne south. (SPC)
Outlook for Sunday part of our area still in the slight risk (SPC)
Just to update our post from yesterday. There is still a threat of severe weather across all of Indiana. This area is quite expansive and means that parameters for severe weather are definitely present. The second graphic shows where the prime area for severe weather may be. The Storm Prediction Center has put a 30% chance of severe weather just south of Fort Wayne, this area includes Indianapolis and central Ohio. In looking at model data it seems like this area has even higher parameters for severe weather.
One of the main issues will be a very strong low level jet which does give extra lift and buoyancy to the atmosphere for continuing development of storms. These winds will also increase the area and time that these storms will be able to hold together and regenerate.
Sunday has an area carved out in the SPC outlook for a slight risk across the eastern part of the state which includes Fort Wayne. A powerful weather system for this time of year moves in forcing drier and cooler air into the region. Usually we don’t see systems like this in July with such strong jet stream winds and the huge temperature drops from cool and dry air. That’s why makes could make these storms rather dangerous in a portion of this slight risk area.
Our week started off hot with highs near 90°, but we’ve become cooler with less humidity for this second half of the work week. For the weekend, though, we’re reverting back to more heat and humidity, as warmer air shifts eastward, helping bring our highs on Saturday into the upper 80s. Humidity will also be elevated and at uncomfortable levels over the weekend.
Our cooler than average air ,with low humidity, leaves by the weekend with hotter, more humid air following it. This next airmass is moving in from the west and was positioned over the Plains today.
Your Weekend Outlook for July 26 and 27, 2014
Scattered rain becomes possible overnight into Saturday. We’ll be monitoring the potential for any strong or severe storms to develop, but it’s more likely that if we see severe weather on Saturday, it would occur Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Additional scattered rain and storms are possible through the day Sunday, too.
Saturday begins with scattered rain and storms
Lulls in rain and storm activity occur through the day
Rain and storms for Sat afternoon and night have most have highest chance at becoming strong/severe
Our weekend rain and storms will come in rounds, so there will be a handful of dry periods in between. Keep your eye on our interactive radar and sign up for weather text alerts, so you know if severe weather is headed your way.
A strong jet stream pattern over the area Saturday
The weekend will boast more humidity, warmer temperatures and a powerful cold front which will bring drier air into the area which will drastically change the forecast next week. By Saturday we see the heat and humidity taking over with a strong jet stream wind pattern across our area. The strong jet stream pattern creates extra lift in the atmosphere and that lift creates buoyancy which is something strong and severe thunderstorms thrive on. The strong winds of the jet stream can cause quick storm development in an already unstable environment with heat and humidity building through the afternoon.
Large “Slight Risk” area forecast by the Storm Prediction Center
Because of these factors the Storm Prediction Center has put most the Midwest and Great Lakes Region in the “Slight Risk” area for severe thunderstorms. It will be interesting to see how this will develop on Saturday and Saturday night for our area.
Here’s a complete look at the rain totals that came in from this morning’s round of rain and storms. Some heavy rain did fall in portions of the area, so as you look at these reports, you’ll notice a significant range in rain totals.
One important note, the CoCoRaHS observers who submit these reports, record on a 7 AM – 7 AM schedule. So, although, there was still some rain falling in portions of the area after 7 AM (mainly to the south of Fort Wayne) that rainfall is not included in these totals. So, actual storm total amounts may be slightly higher for some spots. By 8 AM, though, the rain had left our area.
COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN NORTHERN INDIANA
: SNOW SNOW WATER
: PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV
INWL11 : BLUFFTON 0.9 SE * : 1.43 / MM / MM / MM
INWL05 : BLUFFTON 3.6 N * : 1.42 / MM / MM / MM
INHT07 : WARREN 1.6 ENE * : 0.55 / MM / MM / MM
INGR12 : MARION 5.6 NE * : 0.46 / MM / MM / MM
INAL32 : WOODBURN 2.8 WSW * : 0.44 / MM / MM / MM
INKS29 : SYRACUSE 0.9 SW * : 0.37 / 0.0 / 0.0 / MM
INAL07 : FORT WAYNE 9.1 SE * : 0.30 / MM / MM / MM
INKS41 : NORTH WEBSTER 2.3 N * : 0.24 / 0.0 / 0.0 / MM
INKS03 : WARSAW 1.1 NNW * : 0.23 / MM / MM / MM
INKS51 : WARSAW 1.4 N * : 0.22 / MM / MM / MM
INLG05 : LAGRANGE 1.3 ENE * : 0.22 / MM / MM / MM
INEL46 : SYRACUSE 3.3 NNE * : 0.21 / MM / MM / MM
INWB19 : (AA9SH)LAGRO 5.2 NW * : 0.21 / MM / MM / MM
INWB13 : WABASH 1.5 SW * : 0.19 / MM / MM / MM
INWB17 : WABASH 1.2 NNW * : 0.19 / MM / MM / MM
INWB10 : LA FONTAINE 1.1 NW * : 0.18 / MM / MM / MM
INKS46 : WARSAW 2.7 ENE * : 0.17 / MM / MM / MM
INAL42 : FORT WAYNE 7.1 WSW * : 0.16 / MM / MM / MM
INAL49 : FORT WAYNE 5.6 N * : 0.16 / MM / MM / MM
INNB21 : CROMWELL 2.7 SW * : 0.16 / MM / MM / MM
INSJ16 : GRANGER 2.9 W * : 0.16 / MM / MM / MM
INAL51 : FORT WAYNE 2.6 NE * : 0.15 / MM / MM / MM
INLG11 : LAGRANGE 9.9 E * : 0.15 / MM / MM / MM
INAL36 : LEO 2.2 NW * : 0.14 / MM / MM / MM
INAL39 : FORT WAYNE 7.0 NE * : 0.14 / MM / MM / MM
INAL05 : HUNTERTOWN 2.6 ESE * : 0.13 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.00
INAL46 : FORT WAYNE 9.9 NNE * : 0.13 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.00
INKS32 : LEESBURG 6.7 ESE * : 0.13 / MM / MM / MM
INNB24 : KENDALLVILLE 4.5 NW * : 0.11 / 0.0 / MM / MM
INJY07 : PORTLAND 3.0 SSE * : 0.10 / MM / MM / MM
INKS52 : WINONA LAKE 1.1 E * : 0.10 / MM / MM / MM
INNB06 : AVILLA 2.4 W * : 0.10 / MM / MM / MM
INHT11 : (WA9QGL)ANDREWS 3.2 ESE * : 0.09 / MM / MM / MM
INLG06 : LAGRANGE 9.4 ESE * : 0.09 / MM / MM / MM
INNB11 : ALBION 3.7 S * : 0.09 / MM / MM / MM
INHT01 : HUNTINGTON 0.3 W * : 0.08 / MM / MM / MM
INKS07 : SYRACUSE 3.0 ESE * : 0.08 / MM / MM / MM
INNB23 : COLUMBIA CITY 8.4 N * : 0.07 / MM / MM / MM
INWY11 : COLUMBIA CITY 5.4 N * : 0.07 / MM / MM / MM
INWY04 : COLUMBIA CITY 0.5 NNE * : 0.06 / MM / MM / MM
INWY17 : COLUMBIA CITY 4.6 S * : 0.06 / MM / MM / MM
INNB27 : AVILLA 3.0 SE * : 0.05 / MM / MM / MM
INSN03 : HUDSON 4.6 N * : 0.05 / MM / MM / MM
INSN12 : HUDSON 0.3 SE * : 0.05 / MM / MM / MM
INSN09 : ANGOLA 4.1 N * : 0.04 / 0.0 / MM / MM
INDK13 : BUTLER 0.5 NNE * : 0.04 / MM / MM / MM
INSN02 : HUDSON 4.1 NNW * : 0.04 / MM / MM / MM
INDK05 : AUBURN 0.8 NE * : 0.03 / MM / MM / MM
INSN25 : ANGOLA 1.2 S * : 0.03 / MM / MM / MM
INSN26 : HAMILTON 0.7 N * : 0.03 / MM / MM / MM
INSN05 : HAMILTON 1.7 E * : 0.02 / MM / MM / MM
INSN07 : ANGOLA 8.7 ESE * : 0.02 / MM / MM / MM
INGR26 : (KB9CRA)GAS CITY 0.3 N * : MM / MM / MM / MM
:COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN NORTHWEST OHIO
: SNOW SNOW WATER
: PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV
OHDF01 : DEFIANCE 0.9 E * : 0.90 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.00
OHPL01 : CECIL 0.3 N * : 0.75 / MM / MM / MM
OHDF06 : DEFIANCE 9.4 NE * : 0.40 / MM / MM / MM
OHWL05 : ALVORDTON 0.5 E * : 0.15 / MM / MM / MM
OHWL08 : PIONEER 2.3 S * : 0.09 / MM / MM / MM
OHWL02 : BRYAN 1.3 E * : 0.06 / MM / MM / MM
Doppler estimated rainfall through 8am Wenesday 7/23/14
For the most part a rather meager rainfall for most areas. However, there were some places that did see more rain. The lighter green on this map indicates those areas of heavier rainfall. Over an inch just east of Fort Wayne in Paulding county, Ohio. Decatur and Berne seeing healthy rainfall totals of .75″. This month will most likely end with a rainfall deficit unless there is significant rain over the weekend and right now our forecast solutions are not really showing higher rainfall totals.
Following up with Greg’s post from earlier today, I thought I’d share some more factoids about our lack of 90s so far this summer season.
He noted that our average yearly total of 90+ days is 13 and that, this year, we’ve only had 2 – both coming in June.
So, I thought I’d compare our summer so far with our most recent summers going back to 2010.
Remember, the summer season according to the weather record books begins on June 1. So, for this post, I’m considering temps from June 1 through July 22 in my calculations. If you look at the summers of 2010, 2011 and 2012, you’ll see that by this date in each of those years, we had already surpassed our “typical” amount of 90s for the year. But, last year and this year, we are far from that total with our amount of 90s only in the single digits. With more cool air in sight, the potential for any additional 90s this month is looking slim.
This summer has been unusual as it has really not produced that many days of oppressive heat. So far July has been the most unusual month with 16 days that have seen below average temperatures. Four days have seen above average temperatures and only one day has seen what is considered the 30-year average temperature.
The 90 degree days have been almost absent with only two so far and both were in the month of June. If the temperatures reach highs above 90 today it would be first for July and would of course be the warmest temperature of the month.
As I blogged yesterday we most likely will be below normal for the rest of the month after today.