Weather

Next system to bring gusty winds and snow to the area

February 23rd, 2015 at 9:43 pm by under Weather

After another quite cold night with air temps down to -3°, and wind chills around -15° by Tuesday morning, our next weather system moves through during the day, keeping things quite wintry around here.

Snow amounts won’t be all that high, but gusty winds (sustained from the SW 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph) will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow and tricky travel on the roads, with periods of whiteout conditions possible – especially on east/west roads, like the Indiana Toll Road/I-80/90.

 


One of the coldest on record

February 23rd, 2015 at 11:37 am by under Weather
Data provided by NWS Northern Indiana

Data provided by NWS Northern Indiana

If you have been thinking that this one the coldest Februaries you can remember, your memory is serving you well. As of the 22nd, this is the 5th coldest February on record, if you calculate the average monthly temperature. If this trend continues, and we expect it will through the end of the month, then this may end up moving up to the third spot as the coldest February since 1979.


Winter storm in the south

February 22nd, 2015 at 5:42 pm by under Weather

Here’s something you don’t see very often: A winter storm warning and winter weather advisory for much of Texas. Louisiana, and Arkansas. Dallas is included in the winter storm warning.

7 DayAs this big time arctic plunge is being felt across much of the United States, it’s bringing an unusual set of circumstances for the deep south. Sleet, snow and freezing rain will have a big impact on these areas. Below is a look of the radar and temperatures as of Sunday evening. Ice accumulation and minor snow accumulation will likely cause problems for our friends to our south. Winter is sparing nobody this year!

Blog 4 JH_blog_3

 


Seasonal snow update

February 22nd, 2015 at 1:56 pm by under Weather

With the few inches of snow that fell in our area Friday night into Saturday afternoon (about 3″ total here in Fort Wayne), we remain about 5.8″ above average for our seasonal snow. In this case, “season” refers to meteorological winter, which runs from December 1st to February 28th. Take a look at these updated numbers:

At this point last year, we had about DOUBLE the amount of snow!

At this point last year, we had about DOUBLE the amount of snow!

Some scattered snow showers are in the forecast for our last week of meteorological winter, but accumulations will be light – likely less than an inch. But, it will still FEEL like winter this week with temperatures running 20° to even 30° below average!


February 2015 likely to break records

February 21st, 2015 at 4:52 pm by under Weather

Last year, February ended up being the 5th coldest on record for Fort Wayne with the average monthly temperature only reaching 17.6 degrees, which was 10.7 degrees below average.

Source: NWS IWX

Source: NWS IWX

Currently, February 2015 is running 10.4 degrees below average and the rest of the 7 day forecast shows more bitterly cold blasts of arctic air that will likely bring that number down even more. The potential exists for another top 5 coldest February on record.

7_Day


Saturday snow update

February 21st, 2015 at 9:06 am by under Weather

We’ll see a few breaks in the snow this morning before another round builds in. Snow may be moderate to heavy towards noon. Things will then quiet down and taper off later this afternoon. The heaviest snow accumulations will be in Fort Wayne and places to the south. Lesser totals are likely to the north of the Summit City.

The latest snow map (includes snow that fell last night).

The latest snow map (includes snow that fell last night).


Snow forecast update

February 20th, 2015 at 8:00 pm by under Weather

Here’s the latest snow forecast from the Live Doppler 15 Fury Weather Center.  This snow begins later tonight and continues through Saturday afternoon – ending by evening.

Saturday snow forecast (2/21/15)

Saturday snow forecast (2/21/15)


Latest on the weekend snowfall forecast

February 20th, 2015 at 11:45 am by under Weather
SREF Pillars forecast product (NWS)

SREF Pillars forecast product (NWS)

Futurecast has heavier snowfall through the AM hours of Saturday

Futurecast has heavier snowfall through the AM hours of Saturday

The latest model data is coming in a little better than earlier this week. Although it won’t be anything like the early February snow we saw it will be a quick heavy snow for the area. Futurecast has it in with heavy snowfall from about 4 am through 11 am Saturday morning. Some of the other data I look at is also falling in line. An experimental product above shows what we call “plumes” and usually is an accurate depiction of an event. It is now coming in much higher than just yesterday with a solid 4″ average for FWA. Precipitation from another Hi-Res model coming in about 4″ . 2 to 4 inches is a good bet but we could easily bump that up another inch to include some 5 inch totals and even some isolated spots with up to six inches.


A COLD start to Friday with snow on the way

February 19th, 2015 at 9:35 pm by under Weather

The coldest air of the week is in place and temps will be even lower on Friday morning than the -3° low we experienced in Fort Wayne this morning.  By morning, winds will be relatively light, only about 5 mph from the southwest. But, with an air temperature of -6° (at least), our wind chill will be around -15°.

Our next round of snow moves closer tomorrow and begins later in the evening  (around 6 PM).  This snow will pick up in intensity on Saturday as a weather system moves across the eastern half of the country.  Between 2″-4″ of snow accumulation are possible from Fort Wayne south.  Lower totals will be found northward.

Saturday's snow forecast

Saturday’s snow forecast


Deep freeze and weekend storm

February 19th, 2015 at 10:25 am by under Weather

 

The frigid conditions may be near record setting  in a number of ways. As Nicholas mentioned in the previous post a record for the lowest maximum temperature will most likely be set today with a high in the single digits. The record set back int 1936 was 8°.

The low temperature this morning did not set a record but it was not that far off. We had a low of -3° and the record set back in 1978 was -7°.

Tomorrow will be very close to at least tying a record low for February 20th. The record low set in 1904 and 1978 was -7° and the forecast low is -7°. One thing to note about our February 20th Friday forecast is that the winds should at least be a little lighter during the morning.

The Futurecast snap shot from Saturday night has a wintery mix of precipitation

The Futurecast snap shot from Saturday night has a wintery mix of precipitation

The weekend is no less complicated than yesterday. We do have a wide variance in our forecast model data. However, there is beginning to be a consensus on the fact that precipitation will be sharpy ‘cut off’ between rain/sleet and snowfall. Right now we are looking at mostly sleet and rain with snowfall to the north. This mixed area keeps getting pushed farther and farther north each model run which has been an on going trend going back to the February 1st storm which dumped all the snow across the region.

If you remember Fort Wayne was the ‘cut off’ point for the heaviest snowfall where areas south saw snow but much less snow because of above freezing temperatures during the on-set of the storm.

This storm is a little different then the February 1st storm in that right now we are seeing a lot of moisture getting cut off before it even gets here and the precipitation that falls is diluted even more because it mixes with sleet and rain to the south.

There is still a lot of time and complications with this system and certainly no going consensus between solutions which makes it much more difficult for your meteorologists to reconcile a forecast with all the data going in different directions and wide spanning disparities between these mathematical solutions so far.

This will come down to the wire unfortunately and will probably be a pretty messy winter storm across much of the state.