Another round of slow-moving, heavy rain is possible this afternoon into the evening.
Live Doppler 15 Fury Radar Snapshot
Storms were just beginning to enter northeast Indiana at around 2:45 PM and were tracking slowly eastward at 20 mph. This means the potential for rain and storms across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio will extend all through the evening commute.
Tuesday’s Weather Map
A cold front is passing through the area today and, in this very hot and humid environment, conditions are right for strong and severe storms.
However, not all conditions are picture perfect to guarantee storm development. And, in fact, portions of this afternoon line of rain and storms have been weakening as it has been entering our area.
Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook for November, December and January
National Weather Service computer models used by the Climate Prediction Center are now predicting a 78% chance of an El Nino by late fall. You can see the late fall outlook above with above average temperatures. This would correspond to an El Nino pattern across most of the United States. An El Nino weather pattern would cause most of the United States to see above average temperatures and below average precipitation. California and the southeast would be the exception because during El Nino years there is usually heavy rainfall. This is true across the southeastern U.S. as well.
This pattern persists because during these situations a strong west-east flow is created which is called a ‘zonal flow’. This pattern is generally a mild pattern as it brings warmer pacific air across much of the northern states.
Periods of heavy rain and strong storms moved through portions of the area Monday night.
Some of the greatest impacts were felt in Huntington County where power outages occurred and a number of trees were reported down due to gusty winds that came with the storms. One trained spotter in Mount Etna reported a maximum wind gust of 66 mph. The radar estimates near Mount Etna were the highest in Huntington County and the entire area, checking in at approx. .78″.
Monday’s Radar Estimated Rain Totals
While heavy rain was also experienced in Blackford County (which received 10″ of rain) last week, luckily it was not as long-lasting as last week’s storms. Radar indicated only .53″ in the northern part of the county.
The muggy meter gives you a quick idea on what it ‘feels like’ outside
As the August heat has reemerged this last week we are just beginning to deal with really humid days. We talk about a couple different factors when we forecast heat and humidity. The first factor is dew point. This is one of the variables that we use more in the weather center because it is much more scientifically accurate and represents the true nature of what the weather will be like.
What you need to know about the dew point is simply that any dew point temperature over 65° is considered uncomfortable. As the dew point rises it becomes more uncomfortable. A dew point of 70° can be very uncomfortable. This plays into the forecast for Tuesday. We are expecting only our third 90 degree day of the year. The dew point will be at 71° by afternoon. We combine the temperature and the dew point and we get the relative humidity.
Relative humidity is simply the humidity relative to the temperature. So for example our humidity tomorrow will be over 50%. While that doesn’t sound oppressive, if you say the dew point will be 71° you now have a very good idea that it will be very humid and rather uncomfortable by afternoon.
Why is high humidity uncomfortable to humans? Well, our body uses a system of cooling itself by evaporation of the sweat that we create when we are hot. If the dew point is over 65° then the evaporation rate slows down and there is an abundance of moisture that stays in the air and on your skin and your bodies cooling system does not work as well. That’s what we mean when we say it will be rather uncomfortable.
The Atlantic is starting to become a little more active as we head into what is considered the peak of hurricane season. We have Tropical Storm Cristobal sitting near the Lesser Antilles. Cristobal is not expected to make landfall in the United States as it should begin a jog to the east further into the Atlantic. At this time it doesn’t look to affect Bermuda either as it is forecast to pass to the northwest of the island. The next several weeks will likely become more active in the Atlantic.
Forecast path of Cristobal Courtesy: NHC
Satellite image showing Cristobal (in center) Courtesy: NOAA
As you’ve heard us talking about for almost a week now, we’re tracking a big warm-up just in time for the beginning of the upcoming work week. Temperatures may top off a few degrees either side of 90°, something we haven’t done much so far this summer.
Here’s the setup: on Monday, high pressure will be anchored over the Northeast, still influencing our weather pattern here. A large area of low pressure and an attached cold front will continue to slowly progress eastward through the high Plains and into the western Great Lakes. This front should be near the Chicago area by Monday evening. Ahead of this cold front, our winds will shift to come from the south, pulling in warmer and more humid air. We’re also looking at tapping into sunshine under partly cloudy skies. All those elements combined should allow our temperatures to climb to near 90° Monday afternoon and potentially Tuesday too as that cold front re-situates itself and moves southward through the Midwest. This will bring the chance for scattered showers and storms on Tuesday, but depending on the placement of that front, we could still hit 90°.
That’s one thing we haven’t had in our forecast much this summer. In fact, according to data provided by the National Weather Service, Fort Wayne International Airport only topped off at or above 90° 2 times this summer – June 17th and 18th.
On average, we would have hit 90° or above at least 14 times by now!
Will we make it? Keep checking back in with The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team for all the latest! We’ll keep you posted.
Nationally speaking, this year has been a rather quiet year in the severe weather department. It is really hard to quantify a severe weather season as “quiet” or “average” because reports from location to location vary greatly and tornadoes aren’t necessarily the only factor that determines a quiet or active severe season. For instance, if you lived in Arkansas or maybe even Nebraska, this season has had its scary/active moments with numerous tornadoes and even a few large tornadoes . If you live in Oklahoma, you’re thankful for how quiet it’s been. If we take a look at number of reported tornadoes across the nation through August 22, we’ll find the current number falls more than 300 reports below the average, or 50th percentile. While it’s not a record quiet tornado year, it is certainly a significant drop from the norm.
While tornadoes are a good indicator of how active a severe weather season has been, it’s again, not the only. Here’s a look at how hail, wind and tornado reports stack up to “the norm” so far this year.
The rain we picked up over the past few days has completely wiped out our deficit. In fact, over the past 2 days alone, Fort Wayne picked up 3.59″ of rain! That now puts us OVER for the month of August (so far) by about 3″.
The airport set a new daily rainfall record yesterday, beating the old August 22nd record by almost 1/4″ of an inch!
We won’t be adding much more to the rain gauges over the next few days, but it will definitely feel like August! In fact, if you forgot it was still summer, the next few days will quickly remind you! A boundary off to our south and west today will keep more clouds overhead and bring us the chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm. Most places will stay dry…and hazy, hot, and humid with temperatures in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the low to mid-70s! That will make it feel downright oppressive as you step outside!
The muggy meter will be in the oppressive range today with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s!
When you factor in those temperatures and the humidity, you get what is known as the heat index – that’s what it will actually FEEL LIKE if you’re out and about.
I will feel like it’s in the 90s outside today.
And this is just the beginning of a hot and humid stretch of weather. Temperatures will continue to climb into the upper 80s tomorrow, with many places possibly reaching 90° by Monday and Tuesday of next week! Stay hydrated!
We’re just entering a hazy, hot, and humid stretch of weather.
There’s been a lot of weather information coming in today after last night’s heavy rain and we’re glad you’ve been keeping up to speed with it here on wane.com.
I thought I’d share the map below to “put a bow” on the day’s blog coverage of the heavy rain and give you a graphical perspective of how the rain totals varied throughout the area. This map was created by our local National Weather Service office from rainfall amounts that were observed across the region.