The two big stories we’re tracking for you as you start your new workweek are significant rains and very strong winds. Rain is falling this evening across the entire WANE viewing area. We’re still anticipating 1″+ amounts to fall by Monday afternoon. The wind is the other concern. The robust system responsible for the rain will barrel through the Great Lakes region Monday and will be the culprit for strong winds. We’re anticipating winds of 25-35 MPH sustained throughout the day Monday. I would not be surprised to see reports of 45 MPH gusts in some spots. These winds will be transitioning from southwesterly to westerly throughout Monday.
A few scattered showers will move through the area this afternoon before a bigger batch of rain arrives this evening. Based on the latest Futurecast model runs, the rain should become more widespread around 6 or 7pm tonight. Here’s a breakdown of the timing:
Once this batch of rain moves through tonight, some BIG changes are on the way. The top two stories tomorrow will be the falling temps and the windy conditions:
The forecast models have been pretty consistent with rain gauge totals from this storm. When all is said and done, most can expect to pick up at least 1″ of rain. Some locally higher amounts up to 1.5″ will be possible.
Your forecast for Sunday is calling for a lot of rain, but Sunday will have many dry hours. We’re tracking two main waves of rain to move through the area on Sunday. Wave one is the least impressive. Light rain and showers will move through in the morning. Futurecast is doing a great job of timing the expected rain.
We will see many dry hours in the afternoon with the exception of a passing sprinkle of shower. A strong SW wind 15-25 MPH ahead of the second, more impressive wave will allow temperatures to soar into the middle 50s in the late afternoon. The second wave, looks to come in after sunset. Futurecast is showing widespread rain (some heavy at times) in the area around 8PM
The rain will linger overnight Sunday and into the first half of Monday. We’re expecting impressive rain totals out of this system. Area wide we anticipate about an inch of rain with some locations exceeding an inch.
Colder air filters in for Monday and temps crash throughout the day. The other big story for Monday will be the very breezy conditions. Winds will stay sustained out of the SW 25-30 MPH with gusts to 40 possible.
After the past several days, today will feel downright balmy in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. With gusty winds from the southwest pulling in some much warmer air, temperatures today will climb into the upper 40s. That’s almost a foreign concept to many of us as of recent. In fact, we haven’t been out of the 30s for over a week!
With such a cold spell representing a good chunk of the month of November so far, this has done a number on our monthly stats. When we compare our temperatures to November averages, it’s clear to see that this was an almost unprecedented cold snap:
In fact, according to data from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, this currently ranks as the 3rd coldest November on record in Fort Wayne! We will see a brief respite from the cold this weekend with seasonable temperatures today, and above average warmth tomorrow. Then the cold air makes a return late Monday through Thanksgiving. We could be in the running for coldest November ever after this next cold spell arrives by midweek. Stay tuned!
Air from the southwest United States is coming in and a couple of things are going to happen that we need to highlight. First of all it won’t be a 100% smooth transition. This warmer air will move in to the middle layers of the atmosphere, while the colder air sinks. this will cause a brief period of freezing rain before dawn. Most of our model solutions are now favoring a very quick warm up Saturday morning so ice accumulation and dangerous weather from this situation should be rather minimal.
Bottom line is that this should be a warmer but mostly wet weekend. The majority of the precipitation comes in Sunday with one of our hi-resolution forecast solutions bringing almost an inch of precipitation! The good news is that it will all be liquid this time.
Friday’s the big day…the official lighting of the Broadway Plaza Christmas Tree. The lighting takes place at 6 PM, but the crowd will be gathering beforehand to see Santa, meet his reindeer and enjoy hot chocolate during this neighborhood celebration. And, guess what’s new this year?? Fireworks!
The festivities take place on Broadway Plaza, which is right in front of the Shine & Hardin Law Offices at 2810 Beaver Ave.
There is lots of coverage of the huge amount of lake effect snow or LES across Buffalo, NY. But what makes LES different? First off we are seeing an extremely cold air mass for this time of year, this cold air is very ‘deep’ and to add to it is very warm lake waters. These factors act as an almost perfect environment for LES. It also causes heat and moisture to rise rapidly which is something we usually equate with thunderstorms. Cold air moves over warm waters and because of the geography of the water basin and the depth a large amount of instability is created and causes huge amounts of moisture to be carried away from the lake and that of course is turned to snow. This snow as you can imagine is very wet and heavy since there is an increased water content.
Lake effect snow began across the area this evening and will continue through Thursday night. Our current set up, with westerly winds, favors the placement of the highest snow accumulations north of Fort Wayne around LaGrange and Angola, with lower amounts as you head south.
Remember, lake effect snow totals can vary greatly over short distances – accumulations are all dependent on where the exact snow bands develop and how long they persist in those locations.
If you think we’ve had a tough time with snow and cold then check out Buffalo, N.Y. They’ve already had over a foot of snowfall and there is more coming. Houses have been buried and some houses are even caving in. Here is a gallery of pictures from our sister station in Buffalo.
The day started off with a record low of 9° and was followed by a record cold afternoon. The 17° recorded at Fort Wayne International Airport easily beat the old record for lowest high temp on 11/18, which was 24° (1903). Now, we’re on tap to set another record tonight with temps dropping to 10° by Wednesday morning.
Wednesday’s arrival will also bring more snow to the area. Look for the snow to start to accumulate in the morning and continue through the day.
The highest amounts will be found in areas north of Fort Wayne with ongoing lake effect snow taking place on Thursday, increasing totals in LaGrange County to as high as around 8″.