First day of winter

December 20th, 2014 at 9:56 pm by under Weather

The end of the fall is upon us, and we’re gearing up for the first day of winter tomorrow. The winter solstice occurs Dec. 21 at 6:03 p.m. EST.

Source: SciJinks

Source: SciJinks

We’re entering what is statistically/climatologically the coldest period of time in a calendar year in the northern hemisphere. Even though the days will be getting longer from now on, the average temperature will continue to drop all the way through the last week of January. This is due to ‘seasonal lag.’ If you’d like to learn more about solstices or other seasonal phenomena, click here or the picture above.

Winter Weather Special Airs TONIGHT!

December 20th, 2014 at 1:35 pm by under Weather

Time for one more shameless plug – the 15 Fury Winter Weather Special airs tonight at 7pm on NewsChannel 15! We’ve put a lot of work into this over the past few months, so I hope you can sit down and enjoy it! In the special, we’ll recap all the amazing stats from last winter, take a look at social media-rologists, winter psychology, winter phenomena, and provide an outlook of what we can expect for this winter. Here’s one last little preview to get you excited for tonight!

Day-by-day look at next week

December 19th, 2014 at 9:41 pm by under Weather

With the Christmas holiday now less than a week away and many of you hearing rumblings of rain and snow next week, I wanted to break down what the forecast is looking like at this point.  There likely will still be some fluctuation in this timeline between now and then and we’ll keep you posted here on and over on NewsChannel 15 with the latest.

A look ahead to next week...

A look ahead to next week…


Latest on white Christmas forecast

December 19th, 2014 at 12:33 pm by under Weather
The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The snow/rain line gets shifted as cold air advects in from the northeast around low pressure

The huge system still looks in place for snowfall across the northeast United States. The interesting development is that our European forecast solution is changing the rain to snow by about 1pm Wednesday with some moisture left over. This solution could bring a few inches of snowfall just in time for Christmas Eve.

To be fair the American solution or GFS is showing the precipitation as all rain.

The physics used on the European solution are considered superior to the GFS solution. This could change as this system moves closer. A couple of things to look at here. Each run of our models has shown colder air moving in Wednesday, so that seems to be a trend. The other thing we are looking for as meteorologists is some sort of consistency between these two solutions. That would solidify the forecast more. Look for that to happen by early next week if not sooner.

Keep in mind that this system is not even on the coast yet so the path could change and even a small change would have a great impact in the amount of rain or snow which will track across our region.

12/19 7 day forecast.

12/19 7 day forecast.

15 Fury Winter Weather Special – Preview

December 18th, 2014 at 9:13 pm by under Weather

The 15 Fury Weather Team has been hard at work over the past few months putting together our winter weather special – and we think it’s one of the best we’ve ever done! We decided to change up some scenery and get out of the studio – and with it being the winter weather special, we thought a coffee shop would be the perfect setting! In the special, we’ll cover:

  • A look back at last winter (the “Toughest Winter Ever”)
  • Social Media-rologists – who can you trust on social media for forecasts?
  • Winter Weather Phobias – the psychology behind the winter season
  • Winter Weather Phenomena – what causes thundersnow, how much does snow weigh, what are snow rollers?
  • Gearing Up – what Fort Wayne is doing to prepare for this season
  • 2014-2015 Winter Outlook – what can we expect with temps and snowfall this time around?

Holiday snowfall update

December 18th, 2014 at 9:49 am by under Weather

The forecast gets more interesting and at the same time more complicated with each run of our mathematical model. Updates from yesterday show this massive low pressure system still creating a huge snow for the northeastern United States with rain through NE Indiana Tuesday. However, new developments and now both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) have the rain snow line shifting earlier than yesterday’s runs. This scenario has the rain/snow change over happening around 7am Wednesday morning and has a couple of inches of snow falling through late Christmas Eve.

This scenario will continue to change over the next several days but it be of ‘high interest’ for our meteorologists to track this over the next 60 to 72 hours.

If you are traveling toward the northeastern United States you may see a significant travel hazard and a possible change of plans.

Of course we will keep you updated.

December up to this point…

December 17th, 2014 at 10:14 pm by under Weather

With temps having retreated back to more mid-December like levels now, I thought I’d share some stats on how things stand after the warm start to this month.

Taking into account data through yesterday, December 16, we’ve had an average monthly temperature of 33.6° – that’s 2.4° above average.  It’s certainly significant, but ranks as only the 40th warmest Dec. 1 – 16 period on record.

Despite some warm early December days, there have been some warmer Dec. 1-16 periods on record (through 1896).  Statistic gathered from NWS Northern Indiana.

Despite some warm December days, there have been warmer Dec. 1-16 periods on record (through 1896). Statistic from NWS Northern IN.

The month’s highest temp to date was 53° (on 12/14).  Our lowest temp to this point has been 21° (on 12/4 and 12/11), which is 12° higher than our coldest temp from November, when it got down to 9° on both the 18th and 21st.

As far as precipitation goes, we’ve had .89″ to date, which is .56″ below average.  Most of this month’s precip has been rain – only .1″ has been frozen precip.

Very interesting forecast continues to unfold

December 17th, 2014 at 12:24 pm by under Weather
Forecast ECMWF model 0z (7pm) Tuesday

Forecast ECMWF model 0z (7pm) Tuesday

The forecast continues to unfold into a varied view of what may happen next week. By Tuesday a huge Nor ‘Easter moves toward the east coast. We could see part of this system across our area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now it looks like the warm sector of this system will move through the Great Lakes Region with heavy snowfall possible east of that. We will continue to track the changes that this weather system will bring. If the track changes by just a couple hundred miles we could see snow instead of rain for the 23rd and 24th.

Christmas shopping for a weather geek

December 16th, 2014 at 3:33 pm by under Weather

With about a week left until Christmas, many of you might be scrambling around to find something to buy for a friend or family member. Are they a weather geek? If so, why not a weather instrument or science experiment of some kind? I know as a kid (and even now) that’s something I would love. Click the picture of below to browse through a website with a whole lot of options to choose from for the weather geek in your life!



Interesting 10 to 15 day forecast

December 16th, 2014 at 11:46 am by under Weather
6 to 10 day forecast (NOAA) (WPC)

6 to 10 day forecast (NOAA) (WPC)

The 6 to 10 f0recast has above normal temperatures through the Christmas holiday. However, there are some changes to that forecast using a couple of different forecast or mathematical solutions that have some snow on Christmas Eve. The biggest change in the next 16 day forecast model analysis  though is the temperature for New Years. The Global Forecast System solution or commonly called the “American” model has the coldest air of the new winter season on the way in. It’s still a long ways out but it is certainly worth watching for holiday travel.