Update on weekend rain/storm chances as heat/humidity rise

July 24th, 2014 at 9:44 pm by under Weather

Our week started off hot with highs near 90°, but we’ve become cooler with less humidity for this second half of the work week.  For the weekend, though, we’re reverting back to more heat and humidity, as warmer air shifts eastward, helping bring our highs on Saturday into the upper 80s.  Humidity will also be elevated and at uncomfortable levels over the weekend.

Our cooler than average air with low humidity leaves by  the weekend with hotter, more humid air following it.  This next airmass is moving in from the west and was positioned over the Plains today.

Our cooler than average air ,with low humidity, leaves by the weekend with hotter, more humid air following it. This next airmass is moving in from the west and was positioned over the Plains today.

Your Weekend Outlook for July 26 and 27, 2014

Your Weekend Outlook for July 26 and 27, 2014

Scattered rain becomes possible overnight into Saturday.  We’ll be monitoring the potential for any strong or severe storms to develop, but it’s more likely that if we see severe weather on Saturday, it would occur Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.  Additional scattered rain and storms are possible through the day Sunday, too.


Our weekend rain and storms will come in rounds, so there will be a handful of dry periods in between.  Keep your eye on our interactive radar and sign up for weather text alerts, so you know if severe weather is headed your way.


Weekend weather pattern could be active

July 24th, 2014 at 10:44 am by under Weather
A strong jet stream pattern over the area Saturday

A strong jet stream pattern over the area Saturday

The weekend will boast more humidity, warmer temperatures and a powerful cold front which will bring drier air into the area which will drastically change the forecast next week. By Saturday we see the heat and humidity taking  over with a strong jet stream wind pattern across our area. The strong jet stream pattern creates extra lift in the atmosphere and that lift creates buoyancy which is something strong and severe thunderstorms thrive on.  The strong winds of the jet stream can cause quick storm development in an already unstable environment with heat and humidity building through the afternoon.

Large "Slight Risk" area forecast by the Storm Prediction Center

Large “Slight Risk” area forecast by the Storm Prediction Center

Because of these factors the Storm Prediction Center has put most the Midwest and Great Lakes Region in the “Slight Risk” area for severe thunderstorms. It will be interesting to see how this will develop on Saturday and Saturday night for our area.

 


More rain totals

July 23rd, 2014 at 6:44 pm by under Weather

Here’s a complete look at the rain totals that came in from this morning’s round of rain and storms.  Some heavy rain did fall in portions of the area, so as you look at these reports, you’ll notice a significant range in rain totals.

One important note, the CoCoRaHS observers who submit these reports, record on a 7 AM – 7 AM schedule.  So, although, there was still some rain falling in portions of the area after 7 AM (mainly to the south of Fort Wayne) that rainfall is not included in these totals.  So, actual storm total amounts may be slightly higher for some spots.  By 8 AM, though, the rain had left our area.

COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN NORTHERN INDIANA
:
:                                               SNOW   SNOW  WATER  
:                                        PCPN   FALL  DEPTH  EQUIV
:

INWL11  : BLUFFTON 0.9 SE          *   : 1.43 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWL05  : BLUFFTON 3.6 N           *   : 1.42 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INHT07  : WARREN 1.6 ENE           *   : 0.55 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INGR12  : MARION 5.6 NE            *   : 0.46 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL32  : WOODBURN 2.8 WSW         *   : 0.44 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS29  : SYRACUSE 0.9 SW          *   : 0.37 / 0.0 /  0.0 /   MM
INAL07  : FORT WAYNE 9.1 SE        *   : 0.30 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS41  : NORTH WEBSTER 2.3 N      *   : 0.24 / 0.0 /  0.0 /   MM
INKS03  : WARSAW 1.1 NNW           *   : 0.23 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS51  : WARSAW 1.4 N             *   : 0.22 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INLG05  : LAGRANGE 1.3 ENE         *   : 0.22 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INEL46  : SYRACUSE 3.3 NNE         *   : 0.21 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWB19  : (AA9SH)LAGRO 5.2 NW      *   : 0.21 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWB13  : WABASH 1.5 SW            *   : 0.19 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWB17  : WABASH 1.2 NNW           *   : 0.19 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWB10  : LA FONTAINE 1.1 NW       *   : 0.18 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS46  : WARSAW 2.7 ENE           *   : 0.17 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL42  : FORT WAYNE 7.1 WSW       *   : 0.16 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL49  : FORT WAYNE 5.6 N         *   : 0.16 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB21  : CROMWELL 2.7 SW          *   : 0.16 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSJ16  : GRANGER 2.9 W            *   : 0.16 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL51  : FORT WAYNE 2.6 NE        *   : 0.15 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INLG11  : LAGRANGE 9.9 E           *   : 0.15 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL36  : LEO 2.2 NW               *   : 0.14 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL39  : FORT WAYNE 7.0 NE        *   : 0.14 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INAL05  : HUNTERTOWN 2.6 ESE       *   : 0.13 / 0.0 /  0.0 / 0.00
INAL46  : FORT WAYNE 9.9 NNE       *   : 0.13 / 0.0 /  0.0 / 0.00
INKS32  : LEESBURG 6.7 ESE         *   : 0.13 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB24  : KENDALLVILLE 4.5 NW      *   : 0.11 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
INJY07  : PORTLAND 3.0 SSE         *   : 0.10 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS52  : WINONA LAKE 1.1 E        *   : 0.10 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB06  : AVILLA 2.4 W             *   : 0.10 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INHT11  : (WA9QGL)ANDREWS 3.2 ESE  *   : 0.09 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INLG06  : LAGRANGE 9.4 ESE         *   : 0.09 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB11  : ALBION 3.7 S             *   : 0.09 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INHT01  : HUNTINGTON 0.3 W         *   : 0.08 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INKS07  : SYRACUSE 3.0 ESE         *   : 0.08 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB23  : COLUMBIA CITY 8.4 N      *   : 0.07 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWY11  : COLUMBIA CITY 5.4 N      *   : 0.07 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWY04  : COLUMBIA CITY 0.5 NNE    *   : 0.06 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INWY17  : COLUMBIA CITY 4.6 S      *   : 0.06 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INNB27  : AVILLA 3.0 SE            *   : 0.05 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN03  : HUDSON 4.6 N             *   : 0.05 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN12  : HUDSON 0.3 SE            *   : 0.05 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN09  : ANGOLA 4.1 N             *   : 0.04 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
INDK13  : BUTLER 0.5 NNE           *   : 0.04 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN02  : HUDSON 4.1 NNW           *   : 0.04 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INDK05  : AUBURN 0.8 NE            *   : 0.03 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN25  : ANGOLA 1.2 S             *   : 0.03 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN26  : HAMILTON 0.7 N           *   : 0.03 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN05  : HAMILTON 1.7 E           *   : 0.02 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INSN07  : ANGOLA 8.7 ESE           *   : 0.02 /  MM /   MM /   MM
INGR26  : (KB9CRA)GAS CITY 0.3 N   *   :   MM /  MM /   MM /   MM

:COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN NORTHWEST OHIO
:
:                                               SNOW   SNOW  WATER  
:                                        PCPN   FALL  DEPTH  EQUIV
:
OHDF01  : DEFIANCE 0.9 E           *   : 0.90 / 0.0 /  0.0 / 0.00
OHPL01  : CECIL 0.3 N              *   : 0.75 /  MM /   MM /   MM
OHDF06  : DEFIANCE 9.4 NE          *   : 0.40 /  MM /   MM /   MM
OHWL05  : ALVORDTON 0.5 E          *   : 0.15 /  MM /   MM /   MM
OHWL08  : PIONEER 2.3 S            *   : 0.09 /  MM /   MM /   MM
OHWL02  : BRYAN 1.3 E              *   : 0.06 /  MM /   MM /   MM
:

 


Rain comes and leaves quickly

July 23rd, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather
Doppler estimated rainfall through 8am Wenesday 7/23/14

Doppler estimated rainfall through 8am Wenesday 7/23/14

For the most part a rather meager rainfall for most areas. However, there were some places that did see more rain. The lighter green on this map indicates those areas of heavier rainfall. Over an inch just east of Fort Wayne in Paulding county, Ohio. Decatur and Berne seeing healthy rainfall totals of .75″. This month will most likely end with a rainfall deficit unless there is significant rain over the weekend and right now our forecast solutions are not really showing higher rainfall totals.

Greg_4


More on the lack of 90s this summer

July 22nd, 2014 at 9:02 pm by under Weather

Following up with Greg’s post from earlier today, I thought I’d share some more factoids about our lack of 90s so far this summer season.

He noted that our average yearly total of 90+ days is 13 and that, this year, we’ve only had 2 – both coming in June.

So, I thought I’d compare our summer so far with our most recent summers going back to 2010.

Remember, the summer season according to the weather record books begins on June 1.  So, for this post, I’m considering temps from June 1 through July 22 in my calculations.  If you look at the summers of 2010, 2011 and 2012, you’ll see that by this date in each of those years, we had already surpassed our “typical” amount of 90s for the year.  But, last year and this year, we are far from that total with our amount of 90s only in the single digits.  With more cool air in sight, the potential for any additional 90s this month is looking slim.

90°+ days between June 1-July 22

90°+ days between June 1-July 22


90 degree days have been rare this year

July 22nd, 2014 at 11:19 am by under Weather

This summer has been unusual as it has really not produced that many days of oppressive heat. So far July has been the most unusual month with 16 days that have seen below average temperatures.  Four days have seen above average temperatures and only one day has seen what is considered the 30-year average temperature.

The 90 degree days have been almost absent with only two so far and both were in the month of June. If the temperatures reach highs above 90 today it would be first for July and would of course be the warmest temperature of the month.

As I blogged yesterday we most likely will be below normal for the rest of the month after today.

 


Awaiting rain…

July 21st, 2014 at 6:53 pm by under Weather

June was a wet month for the area and ranked as Fort Wayne’s 14th wettest June on record.  We ended the month 1.65″ above average for rainfall but, so far, here in July, we are 2″ below average for rain.

Our next chance at rain comes late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but it’s not looking like a widespread or a soaking rain by any means.

Futurecast Predicted Rain Amounts Tue Night-Early Wed Morning

Futurecast Predicted Rain Amounts Tuesday Night-Early Wednesday Morning

Computer models only show a couple-tenths of an inch of rainfall possible with this rain as it moves through and, due to the scattered nature of the rain, many spots may not even pick up any raindrops.

Here’s a look at the expected timing of the rain.  We could see some rain start to scatter in around the vicinity of midnight with scattered rain chances extending into Wednesday morning.  As of now, most of Wednesday will end up dry.  However, we are tracking the movement of the incoming system closely.  If it moves through slowly, we may see some redevelopment of rain/storms later in the morning and afternoon/evening.

 

 


Here we go again

July 21st, 2014 at 10:34 am by under Weather
Climate Prediction Center Outlook July 26th-August 2nd

Climate Prediction Center Outlook for temperatures

This is beginning to look like a repeat of the pattern we just experienced. The new Climate Prediction Center Outlook which features temperatures through the end of the month has below average temperatures likely. Does this pattern seem familiar to you? It should because this is exactly what happened last week.

In looking at the medium range forecast models I am in complete agreement with this forecast through the beginning of August. In fact, I really don’t see August type temperatures until after the second of the month.

A cold front coming in over the weekend will take us back down in the 70s and it seems like we will see below average temperatures much of next week and through the weekend as well.

 


Getting a little dry

July 20th, 2014 at 4:36 pm by under Weather

Much of our area is still in pretty good shape with soil moisture and rainfall totals through the middle of July, but parts of the Midwest are starting to get a little on the dry side. The latest drought monitor shows areas along the Ohio River as “abnormally dry.” This means their rainfall deficit is starting to become noticeable.

Courtesy: Drought monitor

Courtesy: Drought monitor

Fort Wayne over the last few months has seen above average rainfall and that’s helped keep us in decent shape. Ever since April, we’ve seen above average precipitation each month; the exception is July.  With only a week-and-half left of the month, we’ve only picked up 0.9″ of precipitation this July. This is putting us considerably below average. While there are several chances for rain in the forecast, the trends across the region will be closely monitored as many farmers in the region really depend on the rain this time of the year. Overall, we’re still looking to stay in good shape.


Streak of July 70s coming to a close

July 20th, 2014 at 12:35 pm by under Weather

As long as the clouds don’t pull any surprises today by blocking out too much of the sun, we’re set to end our going 5-day stretch of consecutive highs in the 70s that began on Tuesday.

Observed High Temps in Fort Wayne (July 15-19)

Observed High Temps in Fort Wayne (July 15-19)

It would seem that, with this being the hottest time of the year, and July’s average highs in the mid-80s, we might have to go back a long way in the records to find another multi-day stretch of consecutive 70s (or cooler) in the month of July.

That’s not the case, though.  Just last year, we had an 8-day July stretch of 79° or lower high temps that started on July 24 and was still going at the month’s end.  August 1 last year was also below 80°, so the cool end to July was actually part of a 9-day streak of such below average temps.

Outside of July 2013, you’d have to back next to July 2009 to find another July spell of 70s.  That year we had 2 separate 4-day stretches at 79° or below and a 5 day stretch that started at the end of the month and continued into early August.

Hope you enjoyed the cooler, lower humidity days last week because this week is starting off quite hot and humid with highs around 90° on both Monday and Tuesday.